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SEC Debate: Which home underdog has the best chance to win on Saturday?

Talal Elmasry

By Talal Elmasry

Published:


There are three rivalry games that will have the nation’s attention on Saturday: Clemson-South Carolina, Alabama-Auburn and Florida-Florida State.

One common theme among those contests is that the underdog is at home in each of them.

Our staff debates which of those teams playing in their backyards has the best shot at pulling off an upset.

WHICH HOME UNDERDOG HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN ON SATURDAY?

Christopher Smith (@csmithSDS): Florida over Florida State

Despite what it may seem, the Gators are less than a field goal underdog in Vegas. Mostly because that defense is really good. It may only take 20 points to win this game, so I don’t think the Seminoles are going to notch a blowout like we could see with Clemson and Alabama. If the team can generate some semblance of offensive production and/or force some timely takeaways, who knows? Florida is better than last year and Florida State isn’t as good, and the 2014 game was pretty competitive most of the way. So I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gators got to 11-1 with a win here, even though I picked FSU to win.
Chris Wright (@filmroomeditor): Auburn over Alabama
Is this a trick question? South Carolina has zero chance. Florida needs at least 2 TDs from defense/special teams. Auburn with its playmakers has the best chance, but this is basically like asking which snow ball flown in from Alaska would last the longest in Orlando.

John Brasier (@john_brasiersds): Florida over Florida State

Process of elimination. There’s no way South Carolina beats Clemson or Auburn beats Alabama. The Gators’ defense is solid. If they can get an early lead and a few turnovers or special teams plays they can beat Florida State.
Tom Brew (@tombrewsports): Florida over Florida State
I’ll take Florida by default in this one. I’ll put South Carolina in that 0.0001 chance window and Auburn at about 0.0002. Florida can hang with Florida State, which is hard for me to say as an FSU guy. Neither offense is spectacular outside of FSU’s Dalvin Cook, so if UF can force some turnovers, they can win. Auburn and South Carolina? No chance.
Talal Elmasry

Born and raised in Gainesville, Talal joined SDS in 2015 after spending 2 years in Bristol as an ESPN researcher. Previously, Talal worked at The Gainesville Sun.

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