The College Football Playoff is finally here. And first-round action gets underway on Friday with a rematch between SEC teams.
With the most consequential games of the season finally upon us, the DFS market is robust. Here are 4 picks to make for the weekend.
CFP First Round DFS predictions
Below are 4 DFS picks for the opening round of the College Football Playoff — 1 from each game — that can be found across some of the best apps for daily fantasy sports on the market. New users can hit the banner below each player pick and our SDS sign-up bonus will be applied to your account.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer lower than 210.5 passing yards vs. Alabama
A 318-yard day for John Mateer in Oklahoma’s win over LSU broke a string of 4 consecutive outings with less than 200 yards through the air. Mateer threw a season-high-tying 38 passes against the Tigers. He also ran just 8 times, snapping a string of 4 consecutive games with at least 10 rushing attempts. Something worth considering: A tunnel screen to Deion Burks and a deep pass to a wide-open Isaiah Sategna III on a busted play by the LSU secondary produced a third of Mateer’s passing yards that day.
The Sooners’ quarterback returned from a broken hand in OU’s Oct. 11 loss to Texas and he simply hasn’t looked the same since. Including the Texas outing, Mateer has 7 picks in 7 games since his return, 6 touchdown passes, and 3 games with a completion rate under 60%.
In the first meeting with Alabama on Nov. 15, Mateer completed 15 passes for 138 yards. He dropped back to pass a season-low 27 times because Oklahoma knew the way to attack the Crimson Tide wasn’t by asking Mateer, whose decision making and timing have been suspect for long stretches of the season, to dissect the secondary with his arm.
That won’t change in the rematch. Alabama ranks 41st nationally in EPA per rushing attempt allowed and 26th in EPA per dropback allowed, according to Game on Paper. Alabama’s secondary has held teams to 6.1 yards per pass while facing the seventh-fewest pass attempts per game of any FBS team.
Aside from the LSU outing, the only other time Mateer has cleared 210.5 passing yards in a game since his return was Oct. 25 against Ole Miss, when he had a 76-yard touchdown to Sategna and finished with 223 yards through the air. Alabama has given up the second-fewest completions of 20-plus yards this season (19), trailing only Ohio State.
Via Chalkboard
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed higher than 28.5 passing attempts vs. Miami
Standout Texas A&M running back Le’Veon Moss seems iffy, at best, for the Aggies’ first-round game against Miami. Asked on Monday about Moss, head coach Mike Elko said the staff was in “wait-and-see mode” and would “see where that one goes” as the week progresses.
Moss has not played since Oct. 11 when he suffered an ankle injury against Florida. He has been ruled out of every final SEC availability report since that game.
Since Moss left the lineup, A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has averaged 30.6 pass attempts in 5 games against FBS competition. He has failed to clear 28.5 attempts in a game only once since Moss left the lineup — the blowout win over LSU, when Reed ran for a season-high 108 yards.
He won’t have the same kind of rushing success against Miami, which ranks 10th nationally in run defense, allowing only 2.9 yards per play. The Hurricanes have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, and they thrive on havoc generation. Miami is in the 87th percentile nationally for stuff rate (run plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage), and it sits in the 96th percentile for havoc rate. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are 2 of the ACC’s best pressure generators, with 102 combined quarterback pressures between them this season.
A&M has been one of the better pass-blocking teams in the country this season; Reed has only been sacked 10 times in 12 games. But quick-hitters to the Aggies’ playmakers in space, in an effort to neutralize what will likely be an aggressive Miami front early, might be the way to go.
If Moss is scratched once again, A&M is going to live and die by Reed’s arm.
Via Dabble
Tulane RB Jamauri McClure higher than 49.5 rushing yards at Ole Miss
Credit to Ole Miss for reaching the College Football Playoff this season. The noise surrounding the team over the last month was nauseating. But, maybe more impressive, last year’s team was better. Specifically, the Ole Miss run defense ranked sixth nationally in allowed success rate. This year, the Rebels rank 130th out of 136 FBS teams in allowed rushing success rate.
Ole Miss hasn’t been eaten up by chunk gains on the ground; instead, it has been slashed hundreds of times by little cuts. A year ago, Ole Miss led the nation in tackles for loss, creating more than 9 a game. This year, the defense averaged 5.3 TFLs per contest to rank 84th. The Rebels rank in the 13th percentile for stuff rate and the 16th percentile for line yards per carry allowed.
That their inability to corral opposing ground games wasn’t detrimental to their CFP push is a sign of just how good everything else has been. The Rebels have been excellent on offense and strong defending against the pass.
Tulane matches up well enough to exploit the one weakness, though. Tulane has a run rate of 55.4% this season. The backfield is complete with a quarterback who is a threat to run on any given down and 2 freshmen tailbacks who have shared the spotlight.
Jamauri McClure is the hotter hand. Over his last 4 games, McClure has averaged 101.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry. He had just 8 rushing attempts through the first 9 games of the season, citing too many mistakes in fall camp as a reason for his lack of early-season opportunities. He has made the most of his chances over the last month, and that should continue against the Rebels.
Via Underdog
James Madison QB Alonza Barnett III lower than 141.5 passing yards at Oregon
Oregon ranks eighth nationally in EPA per drop-back allowed this season, per Game on Paper. The Ducks are ninth in passing success rate allowed. They give up 5.4 yards per attempt and quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12) against them this season.
USC’s Jayden Maiava (306) and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (215) are the only FBS quarterbacks all season who have thrown for more than 141.5 yards against the Ducks. Maiava is the FBS leader in Total QBR. Mendoza is the Heisman Trophy winner.
Alonza Barnett III is neither of those things. And while Barnett has had a solid season, he and the JMU passing attack have looked overmatched at times. Troy limited Barnett to 93 passing yards on 25 attempts in the Sun Belt title game. Against Louisville earlier this year, Barnett threw for 102 yards on 25 attempts and was sacked 4 times.
Team speed will be a significant adjustment for the Dukes, who faced a schedule filled with pushovers this season. Any deficiencies in pass-blocking will be exposed. And Barnett’s receivers are going to need time to beat Oregon’s secondary down the field.
Via Underdog
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
