Another week, another set of massive matchups in the SEC. We’ll get a top-15 game in the noon window, a massive Red River Rivalry showdown in the 3:30 slot on ABC, and what projects as a tight battle between Georgia and Auburn in the primetime evening window.
So, let’s take a look at each game and search for a DFS angle to attack.
Week 7 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 7 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $100 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
Missouri QB Beau Pribula longest run higher than 10.5 yards vs. Alabama
Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer. My strategy for this game is to target the rushing numbers against a weak run defense for the Crimson Tide. Tailback Ahmady Hardy’s total is essentially 100, so I’m staying away from that. Jamal Roberts is interesting, with his total set under 50 yards, but Pribula immediately stood out.
The Crimson Tide have faced 4 quarterbacks this season who, at the very least, were a danger to scramble for a few years when a play broke down. All 4 of those guys — Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos, Wisconsin’s Danny O’Neil, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, and Vandy’s Diego Pavia — had at least 1 run that cleared 10.5 yards. Castellanos and Pavia each had multiple. Stockton had a 21-yard run.
While some have pointed to Alabama’s run defense over the final 3 quarters as proof of growth in the back end of the unit, the Crimson Tide still gave up a 65-yard run and a 36-yard quarterback run in the first quarter against Vandy. Even without adjusting for sacks, Alabama is giving up 4.7 yards per run this season with an explosive run rate around 14%. The Mizzou M.O. so far has been to lean on the ground game, stay ahead of the chains, and control time of possession. That approach shouldn’t change against an Alabama defense that lost a similar kind of game in Tallahassee earlier this year. I like Beau Pribula to be at least partially involved in the run plan. He had 72 yards on the ground against South Carolina and 65 in the opener.
Texas QB Arch Manning higher than 0.5 interceptions vs. Oklahoma
The Oklahoma defense has at least 1 interception in 4 of the last 5 iterations of the Red River Rivalry. Arch Manning has an interception in 4 of his 5 appearances this season. Facing the second-best defense in college football, while making his first-ever start in an OU-Texas game where the field is split differently than other neutral-site games are, Manning is absolutely good for at least 1 giveaway.
Manning has 4 duds and 1 good showing this season. The lone bright spot was against a Sam Houston defense that ranks 118th nationally in adjusted EPA per play faced. Remove that game, and here’s Manning’s stat line: 63-for-114 (55.3%), 7.3 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. If the last name was different, Texas would be starting a different quarterback against the Sooners. Manning has had trouble seeing the full picture, he has had trouble with his mechanics, he has had trouble with his decision-making, and he has gotten very little help from the supporting cast.
OU’s defense ranks in the 99th percentile this season with an average third-down distance of 9.3 yards needed to convert. The Sooners lead the nation in sacks, averaging 4.2 a game. Though they only have 1 interception in 5 games, they do all the things you look for to create an environment where a pick is ripe for the taking. I think the Sooners get one here.
Auburn WR Cam Coleman higher than 50.5 receiving yards vs. Georgia
The Georgia defense has given up at least 10 yards on 27.3% of the pass attempts it has faced this season. The Dawgs are giving up more than 200 yards a game through the air and very rarely getting to the quarterback to apply pressure. Georgia is 65th nationally in allowed success rate and 101st nationally in EPA per dropback, according to Game on Paper. Oklahoma and Texas A&M — 2 defenses that terrorized Jackson Arnold and the Auburn offense on the road — are both top-15 in success rate and top-30 in EPA/dropback.
Those units were able to apply pressure and make Arnold more uncomfortable than he already was in unfriendly road environments. Off a bye week, playing at home, I expect coach Hugh Freeze to have some stuff schemed up to get Auburn’s throw game moving a little more efficiently. If the Tigers can stay on schedule, I like opportunities for Cam Coleman in the intermediate and deep parts of the field.
Coleman has only 17 receptions in 5 games, and he’s coming off a performance in which he was limited to 4 catches for just 18 yards. He is simply too talented a player to be so uninvolved in the offense. Even if Arnold has a so-so day throwing the football, I still expect Auburn to try its luck with Coleman against the Georgia secondary. At home, the communication between Freeze and Arnold should be smoother, and Arnold should feel more comfortable taking shots. It seems unlikely that Georgia, which has only 7 sacks in 5 games, would be able to apply pressure the way OU and A&M did.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
