Early thoughts on each quarterfinal matchup of the 2025 College Football Playoff
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Honestly, this is about all we could’ve hoped for when the season began.
We’ve got 4 quarterfinal matchups that are loaded with intrigue and major storylines. Even the game that projects as the most lopsided — Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State (-10) — has the 23-year buildup of the controversial Fiesta Bowl defensive pass interference call that defined a national championship. It’s a phenomenal slate of quarterfinal games.
In case you need a reminder of what that looks like, here’s the slate (point spreads via BetMGM):
- Wednesday, Dec. 31 (Fiesta Bowl): No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-10)
- Thursday, Jan. 1 (Orange Bowl): No. 5 Oregon (-1.5) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- Thursday, Jan. 1 (Rose Bowl): No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (-7)
- Thursday, Jan. 1 (Sugar Bowl): No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (-7)
Here are some early thoughts on each matchup:
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State — This can’t be a “why doesn’t Mark Fletcher Jr. have more carries?” game (again)
You know, like the Texas A&M game was. Like, the game in which Fletcher ripped off 172 yards on 17 carries, including a back-breaking 56-yard run that set up Miami’s game-winning drive for its biggest win in 23 years. You know. That guy. After his return to full strength after a midseason injury, Fletcher has clearly established himself of the focal point of Miami’s offense from a volume standpoint, though the title of “most electric player” still belongs to true freshman sensation Malachi Toney. While Miami would ideally want Toney to get double-digit touches in this one, he’s facing the most decorated secondary in the sport. Carson Beck navigating that against Matt Patricia’s defense seems like a mistake waiting to happen.
Fletcher needs to be given the opportunity to get in a rhythm, which OC Shannon Dawson seemed reluctant to do until that late drive. Ohio State’s been so dominant that only 2 teams all season have reached 35 rushing attempts. Fletcher has 596 yards after first contact on just 158 carries. Perhaps with some fresh legs, he can be the reason that Miami turns it into a 4-quarter game against an Ohio State team that’s had 1 close game since the calendar flipped to October.
Speaking of blowouts …
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech — A 60-minute game with Behren Morton would be a first this year
Texas Tech’s lone loss against Arizona State happened with Morton sidelined, which means he hasn’t had to mount a late comeback for the Red Raiders. He hasn’t even played in a game with a second-half deficit this season. Here’s perhaps an even more telling stat to reflect how little he’s been needed in clutch moments late.
Morton ranks No. 22 in the Big 12 in both pass attempts (19) and passing yards (142) in the 4th quarter. There are only 16 teams in the Big 12, which means there are several teams with multiple quarterbacks who have more such attempts in the 4th quarter. Colorado has 3 quarterbacks with more passing attempts and yards in the 4th quarter than Morton. Shoot, Texas Tech’s backup, freshman Will Hammond, who started in just 2 games this season with Morton sidelined, has more pass attempts and passing yards in the 4th quarter than Morton.
You get it. Joey McGuire’s revamped squad has been lights out all season, but the unknown heading into the Playoff is what it’ll look like if this game is indeed a nail-biter, which seems most likely with Oregon favored by 1.5 points. For what it’s worth, Morton has 211 career pass attempts in the 4th quarter, so it’s not as if a close game will be a completely foreign concept. But with this team, and specifically this play caller (Mack Leftwich), that would be a new situation if it presents itself. That’s not an ideal question mark in a Playoff quarterfinal against a Dan Lanning defense.
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana — How much will the loss of Stephen Daley be felt?
If the answer is “not at all,” that’s bad news bears for Alabama. It was bad news bears for Indiana that Staley was lost to a serious leg injury while celebrating the program’s first outright Big Ten Championship since 1945.
All Staley did was rack up a Power Conference-leading 19 tackles for loss for an Indiana defense that allowed 10.8 points per game. The standout defensive lineman has been a menace in opposing backfields since transferring from Kent State, but more as a run-stopper than anything else. He’s been a massive reason why IU’s run defense flipped the script after a dreadful season-opening game in which it allowed 218 rushing yards to Old Dominion. Since then, IU hasn’t allowed 4.0 yards per carry vs. anyone and it only allowed 95 rushing yards once, and it was 117 yards vs. Penn State’s decorated backfield … which was still held to 3.5 yards per carry.
Alabama, of course, has had a historic season running the football. As in, “historically bad.” That’s not hyperbole. So far, the Tide averaged 109.9 rushing yards per game. The last time that the program finished a season with that low of a total was when the 1955 Alabama squad averaged 104.5 rushing yards per game en route to an 0-10 season. That was 3 years before the Paul “Bear” Bryant era began in Tuscaloosa. It’s worth noting that in the Round 1 comeback win at Oklahoma, Daniel Hill broke free for a 30-yard run, which was the Tide’s longest run since Week 2 when AK Dear ripped off a a 56-yard run with 62 seconds left in a 73-0 win vs. Louisiana-Monroe. It’s also worth noting that the Tide finished with just 28 rushing yards, which improved the total to 25 total rushing yards the last 2 games.
If Alabama suddenly finds its ground-game identity against Indiana’s loaded, but not full-strength defensive front, Daley’s absence will be monumental.
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia — These are the moments when Gunner Stockton has been at his best
I’m not saying that Stockton deserves the nickname “Stetson Bennett V,” but if he’s clutch in these Playoff matchups, I’ll have a tough time arguing against it. So far, that’s what the Georgia quarterback has been. Against teams that are currently in the AP Top 25, Stockton has the best QB rating in America (162.5) among quarterbacks with at least 2 such games, and he’s got an FBS-best 13 touchdown passes in those spots. Since the start of the 2023 season, the only quarterback with more TD passes vs. teams ranked in the final AP Poll is last year’s national championship QB, Will Howard. In all games this season, Stockton has a 178.3 QB rating in the second half/overtime, which ranks No. 3 among Power Conference quarterbacks with 100 such pass attempts.
In the first matchup against Ole Miss, Stockton’s late-game brilliance was on full display in a comeback victory. He had a career-high 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing) and a career-high 348 yards of offense in a performance that saw him throw 5 incompletions and he didn’t take a sack. Even better, he didn’t have an incompletion in the entire second half. That came on a day in which UGA trailed by 9 entering the 4th quarter.
New Ole Miss coach Pete Golding will have adjustments for Stockton. That’s the only way that Ole Miss will have any chance of avenging its lone loss of the season. Whether he can do that remains to be seen. Six of Ole Miss’s last 7 FBS opponents averaged at least 5.7 yards/play, though UGA was the only one of those teams to hit 27 points. It’s been a “bend, don’t break” unit.
Golding’s postseason run will break if his unit can’t find answers for Stockton.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
