Cheers to you, Rivalry Week. You’re here and looking better than ever.
In the SEC, Rivalry Week is loaded with Playoff implications. Besides just locking in bids, seeding is at stake.
And oh, by the way, so are SEC Championship berths. Yes, those still matter in the 12-team Playoff era. Go ask Texas A&M what it would mean to play in a conference championship for the first time in the 21st century. Shoot, go ask Kalen DeBoer what it would mean to lead Alabama to a title in the league that many said would chew him up and spit him out.
Just in case you needed a reminder of what that race looks like, here’s what the SEC Championship race comes down to:
- Alabama: Win and in
- Texas A&M: Win and in OR Alabama loss + Ole Miss loss
- Georgia: Alabama loss OR Texas A&M loss
- Ole Miss: Win and Alabama loss + Texas A&M loss
This is all pretty straightforward if Alabama and Texas A&M win this weekend. Will it be that simple?
Let’s dig into some early SEC thoughts on each Rivalry Week matchup:
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State — Lane Kiffin has earned whatever is coming his way
Take that however you will. I take it as if he loses this game, he’ll have deserved the right to be the butt of every joke on Friday, which is when the Egg Bowl is inexplicably kicking off (put that sucker on Thanksgiving like the good Lord intended). You can’t have your family flying around to schools in your conference to be recruited and then lay an egg (pun intended) against 5-win Mississippi State. Not with your Playoff-bound squad. But if he wins and this decision looms 24 hours after the Egg Bowl, Kiffin will deserve this prime opportunity. Maybe that’s still at Ole Miss, or perhaps that’s at a historically premier job in the SEC like Florida or LSU. He’s spent the last 12 years rebuilding his reputation after getting left on the tarmac with USC. Clearly, Kiffin deserves to be coveted. He also deserves to be scrutinized for this very LeBron James-like way that he’s gone about this entire process, which will seemingly reach its conclusion on Saturday.
No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech (in Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — Brent Key has turned these matchups into fist fights
And that’s a big reason why Key could be coveted by a place like Florida as a Kiffin consolation prize. The consolation prize for Georgia if it wins on Saturday but misses out on an SEC Championship is obvious. It’ll be in position to potentially earn a Playoff bye while avoiding another week to risk injuries. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, lost control of its ACC Championship path with the home loss to Pitt, which means it’ll need chaos to get there and compete for a Playoff berth. That’s not what anyone wants to discuss for a rivalry game, though. Nobody else wants to hear a rivalry game is played at a neutral site, either. But this game being at Mercedes-Benz Stadium — a move that was made entirely for money in the new era of the sport — will feel weird. The only thing that would be weird is if Key’s squad looked lifeless. Even with the most lopsided SEC spread of the weekend at Georgia -13 (via BetMGM), this is still Haynes King. As in, the guy who pushed UGA to a billion overtimes last year and who lost a 1-score game in 2023. Expect a dog fight, regardless of what the stakes are for Clean Old-Fashioned Hate.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Texas — Arch Manning can get a whole lot of hype back if he out-plays Marcel Reed
Talk about irony. Go tell someone in August that, by the time this matchup rolled around, it would be A&M who has the Playoff-bound squad with the Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. You might’ve believed that Manning’s buzz would have worn off, but at the very least, one likely would’ve assumed the preseason No. 1 team in America would have a favorable Playoff path with a win against A&M. It doesn’t appear that’s the case, nor does it appear that Manning will earn any of the Heisman love that he entered the season with. But after Manning has been (mostly) good down the stretch, he’s got a chance to take on a talented defense and build the hype back up for 2026. If Manning stares down that Mike Elko defense and delivers big-time plays to hand A&M its first loss, you can set your watch to all the juice that’ll return for his 2026 outlook, assuming that he’s back in Austin.
Kentucky vs. Louisville — Is this the last game of the Mark Stoops era?
I’ve asked that question a lot this year. I’m not alone. I’m sure even Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart has asked himself that question amid a strange season in the Bluegrass State, which will now conclude with these rivals meeting in a building where Stoops hasn’t lost since 2014. That was his first trip to Louisville. Is this his final one? In theory, Barnhart could wait to see how Saturday plays out. Kentucky is competing for a bowl berth, and winning against a Louisville team that spent a good chunk of the season ranked would give the Cats victories in 4 of the final 5 regular-season games. In reality, should a $37 million buyout for the longest-tenured coach in the SEC come down to 60 minutes against a 7-4 Louisville squad? Probably not. Either way, that hay should already be in the barn. If it’s not, that says more about the decision makers than Stoops.
Clemson vs. South Carolina — How many tackles will LaNorris Sellers avoid this time?
One of my favorite stats of the entire 2024 season was this:
Insane. It felt like more, honestly. Sellers has had to do even more of that this year, albeit without the Playoff-consideration type season for South Carolina. Sellers has had at least 40 rushing yards after contact in 6 of the last 7 games. Clemson has been better with missed tackles — it had 9.6 per game last year and 7 this year — and it is up to No. 10 in FBS in opposing 3rd-down conversion rate. Among the quarterbacks that Clemson faced this season, the aforementioned King might’ve been the closest comp to Sellers, and he had 103 rushing yards in a Georgia Tech victory. It’s the type of matchup that Sellers could leave it all on the field knowing that South Carolina isn’t going to a bowl game. Whether he returns to Columbia in 2026 remains to be seen, but if he breaks a billion tackles in another win against Clemson, it would be quite the feather in his cap.
LSU vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — There’s a comforting thought for Oklahoma fans
It’s not just simply “LSU’s offense hasn’t scored more than 25 points vs. FBS competition this year.” It’s that since 1998, Oklahoma is 47-3 in November home games. That’s the best mark in FBS in that stretch (H/T Mike Houck). Sure, results that happened in the pre-Bob Stoops era won’t have any bearing on what happens on Saturday in a Playoff-or-bust game against the reeling Tigers, but it’s a reminder that location matters. LSU already had its Senior Night, and it’s not a bowl-or-bust game for the visiting Tigers, either. Could LSU relish playing the role of spoiler? Definitely. If Blake Baker’s defense shows up and plays with its hair on fire against an Oklahoma offense that’s been a bit of a slog for most of the season, yeah, this could be a 60-minute battle. But an LSU offense that put up a measly 13 points at home vs. Western Kentucky is facing a Brent Venables defense that’s clicking on all cylinders. Couple that with that November home record and Oklahoma fans should rest relatively easy this week knowing that this is a double-digit spread for a reason.
No. 12 Vanderbilt vs. No. 18 Tennessee — How many times has Diego Pavia played like a guy in a high-pressure situation?
One. At Alabama. Other than that, I’d argue that Pavia has never looked like a guy who felt the weight of some lofty expectations. And even then, you could argue that him turning the ball over in atypical fashion was more about facing a top-10 team in a hostile road venue than him self-combusting. Keep that in mind ahead of Saturday’s trip to Knoxville, where Pavia will face a Tennessee team that would love to play spoiler against the guy who said that Vandy would “run the state.” He’s got a chance to live up to those words and perhaps sneak Vandy into the Playoff if he can take care of business. Of course, if Pavia leads a blowout effort on Rocky Top, he might just punch his ticket to New York. Will he look like someone who is second guessing himself? Or will Pavia play like a guy with nothing to lose? The latter seems far more likely. The better question will be if it’s good enough to keep pace with a Tennessee offense that’s No. 4 in FBS in scoring.
Mizzou vs. Arkansas — Let me take this time to present a wild stat
Last year, Mizzou‘s scoring margin in SEC play was -29. As you recall, that was for a team that ultimately won 10 games. This year, Arkansas‘s scoring margin in SEC play is currently -40. As you recall, that’s for a team that ultimately won 2 games, neither of which happened vs. Power Conference competition. Up until the 15-point loss at Texas on Saturday, there was a chance that Arkansas could finish winless in SEC play but finish with a better scoring margin in conference play than 2024 Mizzou. Wild? Definitely. Just for a little perspective, if you find all the SEC teams who went winless in conference play since Mizzou and A&M joined the conference in 2012, the best scoring margin in SEC play was 2024 Mississippi State at -142. Unless Arkansas loses by 103 points in this matchup on Saturday — a 2.5-point spread suggests that’s highly unlikely (via FanDuel) — it will have what’s easily the best scoring margin in SEC play for a team who went winless vs. the conference (in the 14-16 team era of the SEC). Alternatively, Arkansas will win and spoil that dubious distinction.
Florida State vs. Florida — The timing of Mike Norvell’s vote of confidence is comical
The announcement that Norvell is staying for 2026 came after yet another inexplicable showing in ACC play dropped the Seminoles to 5-6. Saturday’s trip to Florida is indeed a bowl-or-bust matchup for FSU, but it’s comical to think that decision makers didn’t want to entertain the possibility of losing this game, missing a bowl and having to explain why they’re avoiding firing Norvell and his $58 million buyout. Now, FSU can lose this game and still know that it’s in college football hell. Alternatively, FSU can beat a Florida team that appears to be on to 2026, and it will change … nothing. If Gus Malzahn can’t lead FSU’s offense to 230 rushing yards against a Florida defense that’s allowed that the last 3 games, he should hand in his resignation letter and get off the sinking ship in Tallahassee. Either way, FSU could continue shuffling chairs on The Titanic. I mean, the Norvell tenure.
No. 10 Alabama vs. Auburn — What a perfect barometer for the future of the Kalen DeBoer era
You mean to tell me that Alabama is fighting for its Playoff life against an interim Auburn coach in the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium? That’s the good stuff. It’s also the stuff that’ll let us know whether DeBoer is built to be the long-term guy in Tuscaloosa. A loss wouldn’t necessarily make Alabama Greg Byrne fork over a $60.8 million buyout to fire a coach who would be 18-7 at the end of his second regular season. It would, however, make even the biggest DeBoer believers (myself included), question if he’s got the long-term chops for the weekly expectations that come with that job. He had a historic turnaround after Florida State by becoming the first SEC coach ever to win 4 consecutive games vs. AP Top 25 teams without any rest, but if that’s followed by losses in the final 2 SEC games to miss the Playoff, that’s all for naught. Nobody in America — not even Ryan Day at Michigan — will have more pressure on Saturday than DeBoer.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
