To say that it’s a bit clustered would be like saying SEC fans care about football. In the ever-scrutinized, but still somewhat relevant Associated Press Top 25, you can find half the SEC ranked between No. 4-14. Those teams are a combined 36-4 as we hit the second weekend of October.
Dare I say, we’re in for a cluster-breaking Saturday.
That’s not particularly bold considering that all 8 of those clustered teams are in action in Week 7. Two of them are in action against each other, and of the 7 games this weekend, 5 of them feature spreads in the single digits.
A cluster-breaking Saturday awaits. Here are some early thoughts on that:
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 14 Mizzou — Now is when we find out if Alabama can truly stop the run
That might be a strange ultimatum for a team who ranks outside the top 100 in rushing yards/carry allowed and has surrendered an average of 171 yards in 4 matchups vs. Power Conference foes. That included the last 2 games, wherein the Tide surrendered 7 yards per carry against Georgia and Vanderbilt. Both of those games were wins, the latter happened to be a game in which Alabama was only tasked with stopping the run 19 times. Needless to say, that won’t be the case against Mizzou. It’s not just that the Tigers boast the nation’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, who also has an FBS-best 551 yards after contact and an FBS-best 46 missed tackles forced. It’s that Jamal Roberts is also averaging 7.3 yards per carry, and for folks who haven’t seen much of the Mizzou version of Beau Pribula yet, just know that he’s still a problem with his legs. He’s got 122 scramble yards, which ranks No. 5 among SEC quarterbacks. That’s why Mizzou is 5-0 with nothing but multi-score victories.
Who has the only Power Conference rushing attack that’s been more prolific than Mizzou? Florida State, AKA the team who ran all over Alabama. This will be the perfect test to see how much the Tide have improved in their biggest area of weakness.
Washington State vs. No. 4 Ole Miss — Keep everyone healthy for Georgia
Sorry, Washington State. That’s where we’re at with this matchup. Trinidad “Johnny Manziel” Chambliss figures to overpower a Washington State team that’s outside the top 100 in scoring defense, and this should be the type of game in which Ole Miss has skill players running wide open en route to a lopsided win. Maybe we’ll get a full quarter of Austin Simmons, too. There would be some real long-term benefits to that, though Lane Kiffin might salivate at the idea of fueling a Chambliss Heisman Trophy campaign. Whatever the case, the goal for Ole Miss should be to stay healthy ahead of the Georgia game. It shouldn’t be keeping starters in an extra possession or 2 to ensure that a 32.5-point spread is covered. Keep that in mind if you’re betting (responsibly) on this game.
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas — This went from juiciest Red River matchup in nearly 2 decades to a head-scratcher
As recently as last week, I pondered the idea that this could be a matchup of top-10 teams for the first time since 2008. Not only did Texas not live up to its end of the bargain by falling out of the AP Top 25 altogether after it was swallowed whole by Florida in The Swamp, but Oklahoma isn’t expected to have John Mateer, which only added to the head-scratching vibe of this matchup. Shoot, even Texas being a slight favorite is a head-scratcher. Yes, Michael Hawkins Jr. struggled mightily in this matchup last year, but that was with much different surroundings. Perhaps with a somewhat healthy offense and a competent play-caller in Ben Arbuckle, that’ll spark a turnaround against a Texas defense that just got hit for 7 yards/play against Florida. Plus, are we sure that the Texas offense is suddenly going to figure things out against an Oklahoma defense that’s No. 1 in yards/play allowed and No. 2 in scoring defense?
This game is loaded with questions, most of which are on the offensive side of the ball. The only true surprising result would be if both of those units woke up and smashed an “over” of 42.5 points.
Arkansas vs. No. 12 Tennessee — Bless us with some interim Bobby Petrino “YOLO” moments, football gods
Apologies for using “YOLO” there, but you get it. We’ve got Robert Patrick Petrino as a head coach (interim) in the Southeastern Conference again. These are types of moments that we were told would never exist again. All we can ask for from Petrino, who already gutted the defensive staff upon his promotion, is that he treats this game like he’s got nothing to lose. That means telling the punter to stay in Fayetteville. That means dialing up flea flickers. That means telling Taylen Green to hurdle every tackler who gets in his way. All of this is the type of energy that Petrino needs to bring to Knoxville, where he’ll face a Tennessee squad who’ll seek some revenge after last year’s upset at Arkansas.
Shoot, Tennessee is seeking revenge for losing the last 4 to Arkansas, including a 49-7 beatdown at the hands of Petrino’s squad in 2011. Just sayin’. If the Vols can beat Arkansas for the first time since 2007, there’s a good chance that they’ll head to Alabama for a top-10 matchup. That hasn’t happened in a Third Saturday in October game in Tuscaloosa in the 21st century. Add in the Petrino “I’m trying to win this job” thing and it’s safe to say the stakes are high on Rocky Top.
Florida vs. No. 5 Texas A&M — So now will it matter that DJ Lagway is playing on 1 leg?
As in, 1 healthy leg and 1 leg that is clearly bothering him. Texas couldn’t muster a pass rush and managed 0 sacks. One would assume that’ll be a different story against Cashius Howell, who already has multiple 3-sack games this year and has as many sacks as 4 SEC teams through Week 6. The Aggies have only allowed 1 offensive touchdown in each of their first 2 SEC games this year, in part because they harassed Jackson Arnold and Blake Shapen. Neither quarterback settled in against an A&M pass-rush that looks somehow improved after it lost a wealth of talent on the defensive line. In Lagway’s first college game in his home state, one would think that Mike Elko will spend all week trying to dial up ways to make sure he’s unsettled.
There’d be a nice bonus for A&M if it could fluster a hobbled Lagway a week removed from Texas struggling to do that. Of course, if A&M can’t do that, it’ll risk watching a similar scenario play out for Florida. That is, Lagway connecting with true freshman sensation Dallas Wilson. Lagway dicing up A&M on 1 leg and doing his damage with a receiver named “Dallas” would indeed be worst-case scenario for the Aggies. On the bright side for A&M, Elko hasn’t lost to an unranked team at home since Year 1 at Duke in 2022.
No. 10 Georgia vs. Auburn — There’s a slightly comforting thought for Jackson Arnold in his first Kirby Smart game
That is, Georgia can’t rush the passer. Unlike both Oklahoma and A&M, the Dawgs have struggled to get to quarterbacks this season. They have 7 sacks through 5 games (No. 116 in FBS), and they’re No. 125 in FBS in PFF’s team pass-rushing grade with just 2 players with more than 5 QB pressures (Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson). Perhaps some of that is because Georgia has been more focused on stopping the run and helping out in coverage, but it’s still an area that hasn’t been good enough yet. Whether that surfaces against an Auburn team that allowed the most sacks of anyone in FBS remains to be seen. Some of that is certainly on Arnold, who has a troubling 35.0% pressure-to-sack rate this season. That’s easily the worst rate among FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 pressured dropbacks this season. And when he does get a pass off in those spots under pressure, he’s averaging just 4.4 yards/attempt.
That battle will define this matchup. In 2 such meetings at their current schools, Smart’s defense racked up 3 sacks and held Hugh Freeze’s offense to an average of 16.5 points. Perhaps of equal significance, Smart has 8 consecutive wins against Auburn, none of which saw the Tigers hit 21 points. Perhaps at home as a slight underdog, now is Auburn’s opportunity to finally turn that around.
South Carolina vs. No. 11 LSU — I’m not assuming Garrett Nussmeier is healthy, but a healthy Caden Durham would matter
After missing the Ole Miss game and reminding us all that LSU doesn’t even want to run the football without Durham, there’s hope that he could return for South Carolina. That’s good news for the Tigers, and not just because Durham ran for 98 yards and a couple touchdowns in a coming-out-party performance against the Gamecocks last year. This year, South Carolina has been vulnerable against the run. Shane Beamer’s squad allowed an average of 164 rushing yards in its 4 Power Conference games so far. In 5 second halves, the Gamecocks allowed 16 runs of 10 yards. You can run on them … if you’re actually willing to run the football.
That’s a continued issue for LSU. Through 5 games, the Tigers have just 147 rushing attempts. Only 10 FBS schools have fewer such attempts. That has to change, especially with how limited Nussmeier appears to be. Durham becoming the new backbone of the LSU offense would be a welcome sight as the meat of SEC play begins.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
