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Early thoughts on each SEC Playoff game (including Georgia’s potential matchup)
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It’s here. In case you haven’t heard, the 12-team Playoff will begin this week.
Cheers to that.
That sounded a bit sarcastic, and that wasn’t my intention. I’m legitimately as excited for a weekend of football as I’ve ever been. Four Playoff games on college campuses (Indiana at Notre Dame, SMU at Penn State, Clemson at Texas and Tennessee at Ohio State) will provide one of the best 27-28-hour windows that we’ve ever had. Even if we get a couple of duds, it’ll still be an awesome weekend.
That has me fired up. It should have you fired up. If it doesn’t, well, let me take care of that.
Here are some early thoughts on the SEC’s Playoff picture:
Quinn Ewers isn’t LaNorris Sellers, but he can still frustrate Clemson
I mean strictly from an escapability standpoint. Against Clemson, Sellers forced 18 (!) missed tackles, which was the most recorded in a game by any non-Ashton Jeanty player this season, and it was the most by any quarterback since PFF began tracking that in 2014 (H/T Max Chadwick).
Ewers’ mobility in the pocket won’t be anything to write home about, and it’s why Arch Manning could get meaningful snaps, though he didn’t when Texas couldn’t get the ground attack going in the SEC Championship loss to Georgia. Coming off the ankle injury that he suffered against Kentucky in the penultimate week of the regular season, Ewers has been more protection-dependent than ever. It remains to be seen if Lombardi Award-winning left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. will be available after he was hurt in the Texas A&M game. That would certainly make a difference, though redshirt freshman Trevor Goosby held up well against that loaded Aggies’ front.
What’s still working in Texas’ favor is the Steve Sarkisian factor. His ability to scheme quick-hitting looks was a major reason the Longhorns had such a high floor during 2024. Well, it also helped that the Longhorns had arguably the best defense in America (more on that unit in a second). But Ewers has the advantage of knowing that Sarkisian can get him in rhythm with those looks near the line of scrimmage. Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond (if he’s healthy) don’t need much to turn those routes into chunk plays. Golden, especially, has been a big-play threat. The SEC Championship marked his 12th time in 13 games that he recorded at least 1 20-yard catch.
Clemson has been a lot of feast or famine defending the pass. No Playoff teams allowed more passing touchdowns than Clemson (21), and Boise State is the only squad in the 12-team field that allowed more 20-yard pass plays than the Tigers. At the same time, Clemson picked off 15 passes and it forced multiple turnovers in each of its past 5 games. If Ewers pre-determines reads like he did at times against Georgia — Daylen Everette is still haunting Ewers — that’ll play right into Clemson’s hand.
And what if Clemson can’t capitalize on one of those throws from Ewers? That’s not the recipe for a road upset. In Clemson’s 3 losses, it only had 1 interception on 86 pass attempts. That could determine who advances to face red-hot Arizona State in Atlanta in the Peach Bowl quarterfinals.
Texas’ defense might be ‘the best unit in the Playoff’
Disagree? OK, let’s lay out some numbers for Pete Kiatkowski’s group:
- No. 1 in FBS in yards/play allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in passing yards/game allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in 20-yard run plays allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in 20-yard scrimmage plays allowed
- T-No. 1 in FBS in 30-yard passing plays allowed
- T-No. 1 in FBS in passing TDs allowed
- T-No. 1 in FBS in turnovers forced
- No. 2 in FBS in scoring defense
- No. 2 in FBS in QB rating allowed
- No. 6 in FBS in 3rd-down conversion % allowed
- No. 7 in FBS in red-zone scoring % allowed
To recap, that’s an efficient, disciplined and opportunistic Texas defense that only surrendered 3 offensive touchdowns in a game once … and it was on a night in which Georgia only needed 1 scoring drive of 35 yards against the Longhorns because the UGA defense played out of its mind.
Yes, Texas faced a favorable batch of quarterbacks. It also had just 2 games all year in which it surrendered 200 passing yards, and both of those games (Michigan and Kentucky) saw both quarterbacks get benched. Defenses don’t post a 4-19 TD-INT ratio by accident.
For this Clemson offense, which has a 30-point scoring difference in wins vs. losses — the largest gap among FBS programs — this is an even tougher task than facing Georgia in the opener. That’s a distant memory for a Clemson offense that most recently put up 34 points against SMU. But it’ll take the best version of Cade Klubnik, who averaged 5.9 yards/attempt vs. FBS teams with a winning record, in order for Dabo Swinney to pick up what would be his best win of the 2020s decade.
I’m worried about the health of Tennessee’s offensive skill-players
That Vanderbilt game was great in that Tennessee shook off a disastrous start and locked in a Playoff berth. The Vols rallied back and showed a bit of resiliency on the offensive side of the ball that had been lacking in true road games.
But it was also disastrous from a health standpoint because Bru McCoy suffered a pregame injury, and then Dont’e Thornton, Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson all left with mid-game injuries. It’s fair to wonder just how healthy the Vols will be around Nico Iamaleava after an up-and-down first season as Tennessee’s starter.
Mind you, that’s for an offense that had a 3-game stretch without a first-half point. Granted, the Vols went 2-1 in those games. It’s also worth noting that in 4 true road games, Tennessee only had 3 second-half touchdowns. That’s not ideal against Ohio State’s No. 1 scoring defense, who allowed 14 touchdowns all year (No. 1 in FBS).
Call me crazy, but something tells me that touchdowns will be at a premium. Empty red-zone trips will be a killer. Sampson has been as good as there is at finishing off drives in the end zone, and Ohio State has the nation’s top red-zone defense, both in scoring percentage allowed and touchdown percentage allowed.
A pair of offensive-minded head coaches know that their strengths are on the defensive side of the ball. Does that mean Ryan Day and Josh Heupel will tighten up and be a bit too conservative at key moments? Or will the aggressive coach advance?
Either way, it seems like the only way that we’ll see the best version of Tennessee is if it’s much closer to full strength than it was when it closed the regular season.
The best individual matchup of bowl season is … Jeremiah Smith vs. Jermod McCoy
Go figure that neither Smith nor McCoy is eligible for this NFL Draft. Shoot, neither is even 20 years old. They both just turned 19this Fall. Don’t get it twisted, though. This is a matchup of 2 players who could make plays for an NFL team tomorrow.
McCoy has been a revelation for a new-look Tennessee secondary since transferring from Oregon State. He emerged as one of the best outside corners in the country. It’s not just that McCoy was tied for the SEC lead with 4 interceptions. He had 3 interceptions within the 3-yard line and 2 picks in the end zone.
That’s significant because we know that Will Howard loves to trust Smith in 1-on-1 matchups in the red zone. For good reason. Smith was 1 of 8 Power Conference players to rack up double-digit receiving scores and he’s 7th in FBS with 297 receiving yards on 3rd down.
As much as Tennessee defensive coordinator Tim Banks loves to move McCoy around because of his underrated ability to make big hits in the open field — there aren’t a ton of traditional outside corners who have a combined 64 snaps in the box and on the defensive line — all signs point to this being a shadow assignment. Smith lined up on the outside on 84% of his snaps, so one would think we’ll see plenty of battles between those 2.
Those will be must-see TV.
Georgia fans, you should all be pulling for Indiana in South Bend
Why should UGA be particularly invested in the winner of Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night? And isn’t UGA going to face elite teams no matter what if it wins a title? Yes, but not all draws are created equal. Go ask Oregon and Texas about that.
Priority No. 1 should be avoiding that Notre Dame defense. It’s nasty. Go ask Texas A&M what it’s like when Al Golden and Marcus Freeman have extra time to prepare for a matchup. And if you’re thinking “A&M is much worse offensively than UGA,” remember that the Aggies led the SEC in points/game vs. conference foes.
So yeah, a road upset is what Georgia should be rooting for when you understand that Xavier Watts and that Notre Dame secondary could be a horrendous draw for whoever starts at quarterback for the Dawgs (I’m assuming it’s Gunner Stockton). Notre Dame leads FBS in QB rating allowed and it picked off 17 passes this year, 5 of which were returned for touchdowns.
And just in case that wasn’t daunting enough, Notre Dame’s ground game has been a steady, efficient force all season. The 3-headed attack of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and quarterback Riley Leonard paved the way for a group that averaged 6.3 yards/carry (No. 3 in FBS) with 40 rushing scores. For a UGA defense that’s uncharacteristically struggled at times with gap discipline, that’s a troubling thought.
Indiana continuing this Cinderella run by upsetting the Irish — after a regular season that saw IU earn 1 victory against a team with a winning record — would be as positive of a development as UGA could hope for this weekend.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
