Through 2 weeks, my safest bet is that we’re shaping up for a wild year in the SEC. How do I know that? And can’t I just say that in any given year?
Well, we’re heading into Week 3 with a record 11 SEC teams in the AP Top 25. That’s an AP Poll record for a conference. Yes, conferences are bigger than ever, but consider this. Through 2 weeks of the season, Kentucky is the only SEC team that hasn’t received at least 1 AP Poll vote.
On top of that, LSU is the only SEC team ranked inside the top 5. There are a whopping 8 (!) SEC teams ranked 6-19. That’s on the heels of the conference posting an 8-2 record vs. Power Conference teams in nonconference play in the first 2 weeks.
That brings us to Week 3, which features 6 Power Conference matchups. Here are some early thoughts on an elite slate:
No. 13 Oklahoma vs. Temple — Let’s see that non-John Mateer rushing attack get going
This will sound like nitpicking, but if there’s an area of weakness so far with OU, it’s the non-Mateer rushing game. Perhaps that’ll always be the case with a quarterback who warrants as much work with his legs like Mateer, but against Michigan, the 3 running backs totaled 19 carries for 57 yards without a run longer than 10 yards, which was on the heels of the OU backs recording just 24 carries for 67 yards without a run longer than 11 yards. As great as Mateer has been as a dual-threat quarterback so far, the Sooners need to get that element going against a Temple team that ranked No. 132 out of 134 FBS teams against the run last year.
Wisconsin vs. No. 19 Alabama — With all due respect to Kadyn Proctor, this is when you can silence some noise
In case you missed it, Alabama’s decorated left tackle had this to say after Alabama’s blowout win against Louisiana-Monroe.
Maybe Proctor did silence the smattering of folks who wondered if 2007 Louisiana-Monroe was about to roll into Tuscaloosa, but drubbing that team didn’t move anyone past the concerns that surfaced against Florida State. By the way, Proctor was a big part of those concerns when the preseason All-American allowed 6 pressures, 3 hurries, 2 QB hits and 1 sack in the disastrous opener at Tallahassee. That has to turn around against teams that 40-50 year-old dudes/the rest of the college football world actually cares about. As in, Wisconsin, who’ll come to Alabama a year removed from getting whipped by the Tide in Madison after Tyler Van Dyke got hurt. Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Badgers — Billy Edwards suffered a Week 1 injury — Proctor and Co. had better do more than talk as 3-touchdown favorites (via BetMGM).
South Alabama vs. No. 24 Auburn — Expect to see an extremely conservative Jackson Arnold
Why? The Oklahoma breakup game is on deck. South Alabama shouldn’t warrant a lot of the quarterback run game that we saw in Week 1 vs. Baylor. The focus should be on Arnold utilizing those talented Auburn pass-catchers, as well as leaning on a backfield that should have a significant advantage. The desire to keep Arnold healthy could make for a trickier game plan than one would expect, especially if the offense sputters in the first 2 drives. In what’ll be Auburn’s first game as an AP Top 25 team since Nov. 13, 2021, don’t be surprised if Hugh Freeze opts to keep his quarterback out of harm’s way as much as possible.
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee — If you didn’t know the history, this spread would be flipped
Tennessee is a 4.5-point home underdog after 2 games in which the offense looked like a juggernaut while Georgia looked like, well, not a juggernaut. The latter hasn’t been truly tested yet, which could also explain why the Dawgs haven’t looked the part of a national title contender. But in the last 8 seasons, UGA has snapped out of plenty of funks during meetings with Tennessee. The Vols, on the other hand, have averaged 13 points in that 8-year losing streak to Georgia with just 1 instance of more than 17 points and 0 instances of losses by 13 points or less. But in what’ll be Gunner Stockton’s first road start, is now the right time for Tennessee and its new-look, Joey Aguilar-led offense, to finally get past the Dawgs? Josh Heupel has a prime opportunity on a massive stage.
Louisiana vs. No. 25 Mizzou — Will any Kansas hangover exist?
Look, I don’t want to say that I understand the hatred that every rivalry has, but are we cool with acknowledging that Mizzou’s hatred of Kansas feels … unique? Like, it’s the type of hatred that makes one wonder about what the mindset shifts to when a team like Louisiana rolls in a week later. That felt like an emotional win for the Tigers. Eli Drinkwitz‘s squad will now be facing a Group of 5 team with a backup quarterback after former LSU/Ole Miss signal-caller Walker Howard suffered a torn oblique, and with South Carolina on deck, nobody should be surprised if this is a sleepy mid-afternoon showing early on. Mizzou getting off to a fast start would be a welcome sight.
UTEP vs. No. 7 Texas — That opening script will be fine-tuned
In the first 2 drives against Ohio State and San Jose State, the Texas passing attack looked lost. Granted, a pop pass to DeAndre Moore was called back because of a holding penalty, but as it stands, Arch Manning’s first 2 drives in those games included a combined 5-for-9 passing for 18 yards. That’s a sign that Steve Sarkisian is still figuring out who his quarterback is. Manning was able to settle in nicely against San Jose State, and one would think that’ll again be the case against UTEP, but you can bet that a quick start with that opening script will be a major point of emphasis in Austin.
Alcorn State vs. Mississippi State — Do we realize that the Bulldogs are 60 minutes away from besting last year’s win total?
Well, you do now. That’s worth mentioning because Jeff Lebby‘s squad picked up a monumental victory against Arizona State in what was the program’s first win against a Power Conference foe at home in 2 years. Now, in a favorable matchup against an FCS foe, the Bulldogs are 60 minutes from already besting last year’s 2-10 mark. Also of note, it’s early-September and Mississippi State got 52 votes in the AP Poll. Times appear to be changing, especially if Mississippi State shows up with the same defensive intensity that stymied Sam Leavitt and the defending Big 12 champs.
Arkansas vs. No. 17 Ole Miss — Now would be a good time for Austin Simmons to shake the slow starts
And by “slow,” I mean throwing 2 first-quarter interceptions like he did in his first 2 starts of the season. Yes, Simmons is a first-time starter. This will be his first home SEC start, and he’ll do so after leaving the game late in the Kentucky win (he was cleared to return). But against an Arkansas offense that’s looked darn near unstoppable with Taylen Green, falling behind early would dig Ole Miss in a deeper hole than it was in vs. Georgia State and Kentucky. Simmons has to look sharp from the jump in a game that’s expected to be a shootout with an over/under of 62.5 (via FanDuel). That’s the highest number of any Week 3 game.
Florida vs. No. 3 LSU — Was the dreadful LSU offensive showing vs. Louisiana Tech just about timing?
That’s what I wondered as the Tigers slogged their way to a 23-point effort. Sandwiched between an emotional Week 1 road win at Clemson and the Week 3 revenge game vs. Florida, it felt like LSU was sleepwalking. Or were there bigger issues with an LSU offense that couldn’t impose its will? Of course, LSU was still able to get past its Group of 5 matchup vs. an in-state school, which was more than Florida could say in Week 2. The Gators have their backs against the wall even though last year’s matchup saw DJ Lagway outplay Garrett Nussmeier. Neither team should enter Week 3 feeling overconfident after inconsistent offensive starts from elite quarterbacks. Here’s hoping that they’ll bring out the best in each other and deliver a thriller in their SEC openers.
No. 16 Texas A&M vs. No. 8 Notre Dame — The historical numbers are strongly against A&M
What historical numbers, you ask? These:
- Texas A&M is 3-12 in true road games since the start of 2021
- A&M has 0 wins vs. ranked teams in true road games in the last 10 seasons
- Marcus Freeman is 3-0 vs. SEC teams, all of which were ranked and away from home
- vs. ranked foes at home, Notre Dame is 4-1 during the Freeman era
That feels … significant. Make of that what you will. Then again, the Irish lost a hard-fought game at Miami in which CJ Carr showed flashes, but it was still his first career start. Perhaps Mike Elko can confuse the young signal-caller and keep the Irish offense at bay. The puzzling Jeremiyah Love usage was a hot topic of conversation in South Bend after Week 1. There’s a chance that Notre Dame is still finding its offensive identity against a talented A&M defense. Whatever the case, the Aggies will battle a decorated offensive line, as well as a whole lot of history that’s working against them.
Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky — Anything less than a full serving of Cutter Boley would be foolish
I realize that I’m preaching to the choir by saying this, but I can’t stand how Mark Stoops approached his quarterback room this offseason. Zach Calzada, who hurt his shoulder late in the Ole Miss game, was never going to be the answer. While I understand why Stoops wanted a veteran in that room alongside his talented but still developing second-year quarterback, it didn’t make sense to keep Boley on the sideline. He should’ve been getting first-team reps and given a real opportunity to develop. It took a whopping 2 weeks for Stoops to do a 180 on that decision. All signs point to Boley getting a chance to spin it in a favorable, confidence-boosting matchup against Eastern Michigan.
Vanderbilt vs. No. 11 South Carolina — Beamer Ball is great, but now is the time for the Gamecock offense to wake up
What if I told you that through 2 games, South Carolina has as many non-offensive touchdowns (4) as offensive touchdowns? You’d probably say that’s Beamer Ball on steroids. It is. It’s also a sign that the Gamecocks offense hasn’t been as advertised in the first 2 games with Mike Shula at the controls. That needs to be fixed because Vanderbilt just whooped a Virginia Tech team in Lane Stadium that gave the Gamecocks everything that they could handle in the opener. Maybe a visit from Diego Pavia in an SEC opener at Williams-Brice Stadium is exactly what the doctor ordered. Last year, LaNorris Sellers handed the Dores a rare blowout loss because he was masterful on 3rd down. So far, South Carolina is bottom 20 in FBS in 3rd-down conversion rate at 29.2%. That’s the key to fending off Pavia, who has had this one marked on his calendar all offseason. Dare I say, this will be an even bigger tone-setter for the Sellers encore.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
