Early thoughts on Georgia-Notre Dame and Texas-Arizona State Playoff quarterfinals

And then there were … 8?

Yeah, the new Playoff format is still taking some getting used to. That’s OK. We’re on to the quarterfinals after all 4 first-round games were decided by double digits. Fingers crossed that the quarterfinals are more competitive in games that’ll be played at neutral sites.

In case you forgot what/when those games are, here’s a refresher:

• Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET (Fiesta Bowl): Penn State (-10.5 via ESPN Bet) vs. Boise State
• Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET (Peach Bowl): Texas (-13.5) vs. Arizona State
• Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET (Rose Bowl): Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon
• Jan 1, 8:45 p.m. ET (Sugar Bowl): Georgia (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame

That slate figures to have a bit more promise for down-to-the-wire action. For today, we’ll focus on the 2 SEC games with some early thoughts on Texas vs. Arizona State and Georgia vs. Notre Dame:

Arizona State’s offensive identity is an entirely different matchup stylistically than Clemson was

Texas was tasked with shutting down a Clemson offense that essentially didn’t have a backfield after Phil Mafah left early in Saturday’s game. As a result, the Tigers put it all on Cade Klubnik, who had more success against Texas since Michael Penix Jr. in last year’s Playoff semifinal. It was a 1-dimensional offense, but it was effective. Klubnik had 13 of Clemson’s 24 rushing attempts and he threw 43 passes. He threw for 336 yards and all 3 Clemson TDs.

Now compare that to an Arizona State team that will have All-American tailback Cam Skattebo on extra rest. For an ASU offense that was No. 13 in FBS with 41.7 rushing attempts/game, Texas can throw out the Clemson game plan. Sure, the Longhorns would still like to limit the escapability of emerging Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt, who hasn’t taken more than 2 sacks in a game since Week 3. Leavitt also has just 1 interception in 152 attempts over the last 6 games, all of which were ASU victories.

The good news for Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns is that Leavitt isn’t nearly as experienced as Klubnik, and he won’t have a target like TJ Moore after leading receiver Jordan Tyson suffered a season-ending injury. Skattebo is actually ASU’s leading receiver now (37 catches, 506 yards, 3 TDs), which speaks to the versatility of the bruising backfield weapon (1,568 yards rushing, 19 TDs). The Texas defense, which tied for the national lead with just 4 runs of 20 yards allowed in 14 games, will need to play one of its best games to slow down Kenny Dillingham’s squad. Skattebo has 11 such runs.

Injuries or not, that Texas ground attack can continue to be the strength

It’s easy to forget that Texas lost CJ Baxter and Christian Clark to season-ending injuries in fall camp, and if you include Lombardi winner Kelvin Banks Jr. coming off the ankle injury that he suffered against Texas A&M, the Longhorns technically had 3/5 of that decorated veteran offensive line dealing with some sort of ailment on Saturday against Clemson. On the same play that right tackle Cam Williams went down, Tre Wisner got banged up and left the game (Sarkisian said he could’ve returned late but was held out as a precaution).

Go figure that all of those issues still didn’t stop the Longhorns from delivering their best rushing performance of the season with 292 yards. Blame part of that on a sub-par Clemson run defense, but credit it to a Texas ground attack that just continues to find ways to get it done.

Getting it done against ASU means ideally having center Jake Majors and Williams back. Majors sounded more promising on that front after Sarkisian said he could’ve returned, but was held out as a precaution following the blindside hit that knocked him out. Williams was set to get an MRI on his knee after he was rolled up on during a busted pass play behind the line of scrimmage to Wisner.

ASU has been good, but not great in defending the run. The Sun Devils are No. 38 in FBS in yards/carry allowed and they only surrendered 3 runs of 30 yards in 13 games. In their past 4 games, they allowed an average of 114.8, but with how much they led, they only faced an average of 26.8 rush attempts/game in those contests. Texas, on the other hand, ran the ball at least 30 times vs. every non-Georgia team it faced this year.

I’d expect Texas to continue that and force ASU to stop its 2-headed monster of Wisner and Jaydon Blue.

Texas returning to Atlanta feels like a nice advantage

Maybe I’m reading too far into this, but Texas getting to return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a nice little bonus as the 5-seed. No, the Longhorns didn’t beat Georgia in that building in the SEC Championship, but there’s something to be said for a team having familiarity with those surroundings. It has unique lighting, it’s an NFL stadium and it should be a comfort level knowing that Texas isn’t playing in a de-facto road game like it had against Georgia.

It might not have the same vibe or advantage of playing in Austin, but that’s another favorable draw for the Longhorns. Of course, so is the fact that if Texas can get past Arizona State, it’ll return to the Lone Star State to play in the Cotton Bowl semifinal on Jan. 10.

Is Notre Dame just a more talented version of Georgia Tech? If so, that’s a troubling thought for UGA

Think about it: Georgia Tech was a run-first team that had a mobile quarterback that UGA struggled to bring down. And defensively, the Yellow Jackets had Carson Beck completely out of sorts with their coverages for the vast majority of the regular-season finalé. Notre Dame is more than capable of following the Georgia Tech blueprint, and doing so with more talented players against backup Gunner Stockton in his first career start.

That’s why that spread is just UGA -1.5, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a tough draw for a Georgia defense that struggled against the run in atypical fashion during the Kirby Smart era. In 13 games in 2024, UGA allowed 15 runs of 20 yards. In 44 games in the previous 3 seasons (2021-23), UGA allowed 16 runs of 20 yards. Notre Dame, by the way, is No. 10 in FBS with 28 runs of 20 yards this season. The Irish racked up 193 rushing yards against Indiana’s No. 1-ranked run defense. Yes, you could say that IU’s weaker regular-season competition helped that stat. You could also say that UGA had its hands full with the UMass rushing attack, which totaled 226 yards on the ground in Athens in November. It’s worth noting that more recently, the Dawgs stymied Texas for 31 rushing yards in the SEC Championship victory.

It’s not just the inconsistent run defense that could be a struggle for the Dawgs. Notre Dame’s defense has been lights out against the pass this year. After Stockton faced Texas’ No. 2 defense in terms of opposing quarterback rating, he’ll face the No. 1 unit in that department. The Irish posted an opposing QB rating of 99.7 vs. Power Conference teams, and they’re No. 7 in FBS in opposing 3rd-down conversion rate. In the 4 games that Notre Dame had extra time to prepare, here’s how opposing starting quarterbacks fared:

• Conner Weigman, Texas A&M — 12-30, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 sack taken, 54.7 QB rating
• Ashton Daniels, Stanford — 8-13, 74 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 sacks taken, 109.4 QB rating
• Brock Glenn, Florida State — 5-18, 51 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks taken, 29.4 QB rating
• Kurtis Rourke, Indiana — 20-33, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks taken, 129.3 QB rating

To recap, when ND had extra time to prepare, starting quarterbacks averaged 4.7 yards/attempt, and Rourke, who was completely ineffective for the vast majority of the first-round CFP game, was the only one to throw for more than 100 yards.

UGA definitely didn’t get the most favorable quarterfinal draw to begin its path to a national title.

The 2 historic stats I’ll be thinking about with Notre Dame and Georgia

Apologies if you’ve read/heard this from me before, but it’s worth repeating.

Since 1999, Notre Dame is 3-23 vs. AP Top 5 teams. Two of those wins came at home vs. Clemson in the 2020s, and the other was in Week 2 of the 2005 season when the Irish beat No. 3 Michigan in Ann Arbor. For what it’s worth, Michigan finished 7-5 that season. Of note, Georgia is the No. 2 team in the AP Poll. The last time that Notre Dame beat an AP Top 5 team at a neutral site was at the end of the 1992 season in the Cotton Bowl against No. 4 Texas A&M. Marcus Freeman was 6 years old.

On the Georgia side, Smart is 35-1 vs. non-SEC teams since the start of the 2017 season. The lone loss came against Texas in the 2018 Sugar Bowl. So while Notre Dame is fighting that aforementioned AP Top 5 trend, it’s at least facing UGA in the lone building where it lost to a non-SEC team in the past 8 seasons.

Take that for what it is. I take it as it would be nothing short of historic if the Irish pulled off the upset.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.