And then there were 5.
Five SEC teams will go into the second Saturday of November with 0-1 conference losses, which is essentially how one should view the race to Atlanta in a division-less conference. Getting there with 2 conference losses is indeed possible after it happened last year with Georgia, though it’s certainly not the blueprint.
The race to Atlanta will feature just 2 more matchups among those teams (Texas at Georgia, Texas A&M at Texas), so in theory, the possibility for late carnage isn’t inevitable. But at the same time, SEC play has already been carnage. Teams 3-14 in the conference standings all have an average scoring margin in conference play of a touchdown. In fact, teams No. 3 (Georgia) and No. 14 (Mississippi State) will face off this weekend, and take a wild guess what the spread is. It’s Georgia -7.5 (via BetMGM).
That’s life in the new SEC. Call it the NFL, or just call it a conference where the margin for error is slimmer than ever. Shoot, we’ve still got a month before the SEC Championship Game and a quarter of the conference’s teams have already fired their head coaches. Will more join? Time will tell.
For now, though, let’s break down a calm-before-the-storm SEC slate in Week 11:
No. 5 Georgia vs. Mississippi State — You shouldn’t be surprised by a 7.5-point spread
Did you read the intro? Like, the part where I told you that Georgia has an average scoring margin in SEC play of +7.2 and Mississippi State is -7.0? That’s why the Dawgs are 1-score favorites in Starkville. After all, that’s the building where Mississippi State beat the defending Big 12 champs (Arizona State) and forced Tennessee and Texas into overtime games after blown 4th quarter leads. Jeff Lebby‘s squad led with less than 2 minutes to play against all 3 of those teams. The Bulldogs haven’t been the doormat that their 1-4 SEC record suggests they’ve been, especially at home. You could argue that Georgia hasn’t been the juggernaut that its 5-1 SEC record suggests it has been, especially away from home.
The Dawgs overcame a trio of second-half deficits in all 3 of those contests, which were decided by an average of 5.7 points. Add in Georgia’s growing list of defensive injuries and yeah, the oddsmakers didn’t pull that line out of nowhere. This should be another 60-minute game for the Playoff-hopeful Dawgs.
The Citadel vs. No. 7 Ole Miss — Time for the non-Kewan Lacy rushing options to step up
That’s fairly obvious given the lopsided nature of this matchup, but consider this a reminder that Ole Miss is about to embark on something it’s never experienced. That is, a Playoff run. In order to make one of those, Ole Miss needs Lacy to be healthy, or at least as close to healthy as one can be after the type of workload he’s had this year. Once upon a time, Lane Kiffin used to rely on a multi-faceted rushing attack with at least 2 and sometimes 3 backfield options, as well as the quarterback run game. The quarterback run game is still there, but this year, Lacy has 189 carries — he’s got 632 yards after first contact and more missed tackles forced than any Power Conference player — and no other Ole Miss running back has 20 carries. That’s as wide of a discrepancy as there is in the SEC.
Against The Citadel, now would be an ideal time for Lacy to have single-digit touches while former LSU transfer Logan Diggs and former Troy 1,000-yard rusher Damien Taylor handle the majority of the work. Go ask 2024 Tennessee about riding Dylan Sampson into the Playoff. He was too banged up to contribute by the time the Vols got there. Ole Miss should take advantage of this de-facto bye week to preserve Lacy.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 19 Mizzou — This type of win has eluded Mizzou, and it’s hard to see that changing
What do I mean by that, you ask? Well, Mizzou hasn’t beaten an AP Top 10 team in the regular season under Eli Drinkwitz (the Ohio State win came in the Cotton Bowl), and the last time the Tigers earned such a victory was on Oct. 12, 2013, at No. 7 Georgia. In the Playoff era, Mizzou is 0-13 in regular-season games vs. AP Top 10 teams (including the 2014 SEC Championship Game).
A&M, on the other hand, is 8-0 because it’s 1 of 8 Power Conference teams with a 3-0 record or better in true road games this year. That’s wild considering that when Mike Elko showed up in 2024, A&M hadn’t won a true road game since Oct. 26, 2021 … at Mizzou. Go figure that Elko was the defensive coordinator in that matchup. One would think that in this matchup, he’ll try to apply plenty of pressure to Mizzou true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers in what’ll be his first career start after the Beau Pribula injury. A&M leads FBS with 4 sacks per game thanks in large part to Cashius Howell, who is tied for No. 3 in the FBS with 9.5 sacks. Something tells me his presence will be felt in CoMo.
Auburn vs. No. 15 Vanderbilt — On the bright side, Auburn … you know the bright side
If you’re an Auburn fan, you know that at least you don’t have to watch Hugh Freeze lose to Diego Pavia again. That would’ve been like having to go to a 5-year-old’s birthday party while being hungover. Instead, this could still be going to a 5-year-old’s birthday after a late night, but you’ll at least have a full Pedialyte and some toast in your system. There’s hope that this won’t be another vomit-inducing experience at the hands of Pavia, who went 2-0 vs. Auburn and 3-0 vs. Freeze (don’t forget the New Mexico State-Liberty clash in 2022). Instead of seeing sideline shots of Freeze looking sick to his stomach while Pavia converts another 3rd down, Auburn fans can pray that DJ Durkin will spend all of his waking hours devoted to making sure that Pavia doesn’t dance all over the Tigers’ grave.
Will that happen? History isn’t on Auburn’s side, and not just because of that 10-game losing streak to ranked teams in true road games. Since the start of 2024, Vandy’s 3 home losses have all come to teams with at least 9 regular-season wins … and they were all in the latter half of last season when Pavia was playing through a leg injury. Pavia appears healthy and more than capable of continuing this Auburn hangover.
LSU vs. No. 4 Alabama — Another interim coach for LSU vs. Alabama = another relatively close game?
If you’re counting the 2021 matchup as an interim coach game like I am, Saturday will mark the 3rd time in the last decade that LSU will have an interim coach against Alabama. After all, Ed Orgeron had already been fired. So yes, the last 2 times that LSU faced Alabama with an interim coach, they were both Orgeron. Last I checked, he’s not showing up on that sidelines come Saturday, but never rule it out. Also don’t rule out that the possibility of this being a relatively competitive game, much like when Alabama won 10-0 in 2016 and 20-14 in 2021. After all, Alabama has an average scoring margin of 9.2 in SEC play this year. It’s been 12 years since LSU failed to keep it within 2 scores in Tuscaloosa, though it’s worth noting that the Tide haven’t lost to an SEC team in Bryant-Denny Stadium since the 2019 LSU game. Kalen DeBoer is also undefeated at home as a Power Conference head coach.
One would think that even if the removal of the Brian Kelly stench and the arrival of the experienced Frank Wilson leads to a more promising LSU showing than what we’ve seen the last 5 weeks, Alabama has proven to be poised in 60-minute games.
Florida vs. Kentucky — Florida’s interim offensive staff showed promise with 2 key wrinkles
Like, more promise than the Auburn offense that Kentucky faced to end its SEC losing streak last Saturday night. Florida, unlike Auburn, did things to actually move the ball in its Week 10 matchup against Georgia. We’re possibly a somewhat on-target DJ Lagway throw to J. Michael Sturdivant from talking about a 27-point showing in a Florida win (don’t forget the only reason that play was controversial was because of how underthrown that pass was). As it stands, Florida looked offensively competent with first-time play-caller Ryan O’Hara. Lagway nearly had more designed runs (4) on Saturday than he had all season (5). In fact, last year’s Kentucky game was the only other time in Lagway’s career that he had at least 4 designed runs in a game. The 34 yards off designed runs against Georgia bested Lagway’s previous high of 32 yards in that win against Kentucky last year (he came into Saturday with 28 yards off designed runs all season). There’s no reason to shy away from that.
There’s also no reason to shy away from Tre Wilson, who finally had his first big game of 2025 after an injury-riddled 2024. Wilson entered Saturday’s Georgia game with 121 receiving yards on the season, which he naturally followed with a 121-yard showing. It marked his first game with double-digit targets since the 2023 Cocktail Party. One would think that against a Kentucky secondary that was shredded by Tennessee’s passing attack in its most recent home game, Wilson will be heavily involved again, though maybe not with another 46% target share. Those 2 interim staff wrinkles could be what fuels Florida to its first win in Lexington since Kyle Trask stepped in after that Feleipe Franks suffered that gruesome season-ending injury in 2019.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
