Here we are nearing the final Saturday of October and there are 8 SEC teams with 0 or 1 conference losses. A divisionless SEC is proving to be the most chaotic. Week 8 gave us 6 SEC games that were decided by 1 score.
At the same time, we’re also coming off a weekend in which there weren’t any upsets in conference play. Is there some real separation in the conference? Or is there true parity?
It’s probably somewhere in between. That still means that plenty of these games could come down to a play, and it could be the difference in 3-1 in SEC play vs. 0-4 in SEC play.
(Looking at you, Auburn.)
So what does that mean for Week 9 with only 2 SEC teams on bye? It means there’s a ton on the line to close October.
Here are some early thoughts on those 7 matchups in the SEC:
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Oklahoma — The OU defense is Trinidad Chambliss’s toughest challenge to date
That’s not usually something that’s said after a quarterback travels to Georgia, but based on the fact that Ole Miss didn’t punt until the 4th quarter against a UGA defense that can’t find its pass rush, that’s perfectly fair. It’s also perfectly fair to say that a 13-yard 4th quarter wasn’t the finish that Chambliss and Lane Kiffin hoped for on the road. Now, he’ll face an Oklahoma defense that ranks No. 1 in FBS in yards/play allowed and No. 2 in scoring defense. Perhaps of equal significance, it’s tied for No. 1 in the FBS with 28 sacks this season. Chambliss has only been pressured on 20.2% of his drop-backs this season, which is the lowest rate among SEC starting quarterbacks. He’s done a nice job of avoiding sacks (5 taken), but he’s really only faced 1 unit (LSU) who could dial up pressure consistently.
R Mason Thomas, Taylor Wein and the OU defensive line can get home without blitzing. That’ll have a massive say in whether Ole Miss can beat a ranked Power Conference team in a true road game for the first time in the Kiffin era.
Auburn vs. Arkansas — Auburn’s offense simply cannot struggle here
You could argue that Auburn’s first-half slate in conference play was borderline diabolical for Jackson Arnold to get his confidence back. Look at the FBS rankings of these units in scoring defense and yards/play allowed:
- Oklahoma: No. 2 scoring defense, No. 1 in yards/play allowed
- Texas A&M: No. 62 scoring offense, No. 49 in yards/play allowed
- Georgia: No. 32 scoring defense, No. 30 in yards/play allowed
- Mizzou: No. 16 scoring defense, No. 9 in yards/play allowed
That’s 3 of 4 units who rank in the top 1/4 in FBS in those 2 key categories, and the one who didn’t (A&M), was a road game in front of 108,000 people against the conference’s top pass rusher (Cashius Howell). Now compare that to Arkansas, who ranks No. 121 in FBS in scoring defense and No. 126 in yards/play allowed with just 11 sacks in 7 games. One would think that Arnold will be set up to run wild and get enough time to target receivers downfield, where he ranks No. 13 in the SEC with 22 such attempts (20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). In a game in which Arnold’s status as QB1 is very much on the line, this cannot be a matchup in which Auburn struggles to string together scoring drives. Auburn being a slight early favorite in a game with an over/under of 57.5 (via BetMGM) suggests that can actually happen.
No. 4 Alabama vs. South Carolina — Are we overdue for a Shane Beamer special?
Nothing about the 2025 sample size would tell you that it’s in the works. After all, the Gamecocks already have 4 losses after their highest preseason AP Top 25 ranking in the post-Steve Spurrier era while Alabama just became the first team in SEC history to win 4 consecutive games vs. ranked foes without a bye week. This would have to be an out-of-body experience for a South Carolina offense that’s stuck in the mud, as well as a South Carolina defense that can’t stop the run. But is it possible that Beamer, who has thrived historically with 6 wins as a double-digit underdog, makes an out-of-nowhere statement? After all, Alabama is led by Kalen DeBoer, AKA the coach who lost as a double-digit favorite 4 times in his first 14 games. Also, DeBoer still carries a 4-5 record away from Tuscaloosa during his time as Alabama’s head coach.
Could an already chaotic year of college football include a game in which South Carolina gets a pair of Beamer Ball non-offensive touchdowns en route to one of the biggest upsets of the season? For an Alabama team riding high, now could be the perfect time for the Gamecocks to pull off a mammoth upset that would be shades of 2010 against the Tide … or it could be a reminder that LaNorris Sellers is being let down by his supporting cast.
No. 15 Mizzou vs. No. 10 Vandy — On second thought, maybe this actually isn’t a Playoff elimination game
I know that’ll be the billing for this incredibly intriguing battle of 1-loss teams, which is why it will play host to College GameDay. But dare I say, a “Playoff elimination game” might not be fair for a pair of teams who could still be 10-2 at-large bids. Mizzou’s post-Vanderbilt schedule features teams that are a combined 6-9 in SEC play while Vandy’s post-Mizzou schedule features teams that are a combined 4-11 in SEC play. Both of these teams have a lone blemish of losing to Alabama, which is hardly an indictment of one’s Playoff credentials. Both teams are more well-rounded than the casual fan realizes and would hardly be in danger of a free fall with a loss.
Of course, the alternative is that the winner of this game having just 1 loss heading into November would be in an ideal spot to make a Playoff push. That would suddenly make that dream a much more likely reality for 2 teams that were considered preseason afterthoughts nationally.
No. 22 Texas vs. Mississippi State — This would be a fitting place for Texas to watch its national title hopes die
Michael Taaffe doesn’t understand why media members weren’t smiling after Texas narrowly escaped Kentucky in overtime. I don’t understand why Texas still looks so lost offensively after a 179-yard showing in Lexington. Seven games in, it’s no longer an excuse to say it’s inexperience when Texas has played in 4 Power Conference games, and it had just 1 offensive touchdown in 3 of them. The Longhorns were the preseason No. 1 team in America. We’re past the point of this being acceptable. In another road game against a defense that’s not a pushover, I fully expect Texas to struggle offensively. The Bulldogs are No. 12 in FBS with 13 takeaways, and they quietly rank No. 22 in FBS in opposing quarterback rating.
It’s telling that Texas is 1-2 in true road games with the lone win coming in overtime to a team who hasn’t won a Power Conference home game in over 2 years. Against a Mississippi State squad who hasn’t won an SEC game in over 2 years, Starkville could be the place where Texas watches its Playoff dreams go to die.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 20 LSU — Cashius Howell vs. the LSU offensive line is bad news for the Bayou Bengals
LSU left tackle Tyree Adams got hurt against Vandy, and he’s already been ruled out vs. A&M. That’s problematic considering that Garrett Nussmeier just faced the highest pressure rate of his career (pressured on 43% of drop-backs) in a devastating loss at Vandy, and now, LSU will have to find answers against the SEC’s leader in sacks. Howell has been a game-wrecker for an A&M defense that, while imperfect, has shown it can get off the field with the nation’s No. 2 opposing 3rd-down conversion rate (23%). Howell is a big part of that. He’s got a 25.5% pass-rush win rate, 32 pressures and 23 hurries this season, all of which are No. 1 in the SEC and top 10 in FBS among edge rushers (min. 70 pass-rush snaps).
Howell is a problem, and while Taylen Green did an excellent job of escaping him on his 7 hurries, nobody will confuse Nussmeier’s mobility with the Arkansas quarterback. This could be another day in which Nussmeier is staring down the barrel and hobbling far too often to make anybody think he’s right.
No. 17 Tennessee vs. Kentucky — Are we on “Mark Stoops Watch” on Saturday? We should be
Losing home games is the standard preamble for firing a coach. It takes an athletic director seeing the home fanbase empty out of the stadium for reality to truly sink in. Watching Josh Heupel beat Stoops for the 5th consecutive time in as many chances might be the final dose of reality for Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart to pull the trigger on a $37 million buyout. Sure, Kentucky held its own against Texas with arguably Cutter Boley’s most impressive showing to date … only to watch it end in another depressing manner. That marked the 10th consecutive home loss to a Power Conference foe. Loss No. 11 would be depressing, no matter what it looks like.
That’s the issue here. For all the talk about Kentucky being “a basketball school,” Stoops is in danger of watching his team fall to 2-5 overall and 0-5 in SEC play as his fanbase, uh, stoops even deeper into its already apathetic state. That’s a problem. Anything outside of an upset win on Saturday and one can’t help but wonder if his run in Lexington will end on Sunday.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
