Eli Drinkwitz doesn’t need to worry about autobids, Mizzou can make the Playoff regardless
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I imagined Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz on the field outside Winterfell this week. (Nerd stuff incoming.) In one of the greatest episodes of modern television ever produced, our protagonist unsheathes his sword and turns to face a charging horde of angry Northmen. He obviously has late-arriving help, but for the briefest of moments, he’s resigned to stand alone, resolute.
Drinkwitz went against the party line last week at SEC Media Days, opposing the College Football Playoff format that has been parroted by his SEC peers and signing off on a model favored by the Big Ten. Drinkwitz told ESPN he’d be in favor of eliminating the CFP selection committee and moving toward a model that guarantees 4 spots each for the SEC and the Big Ten.
Remove implicit biases from the equation, he said. If the design is to do something bold, actually do something bold.
“When you actually sit back and can sit on a beach and read books and think through, you’re like, ‘Wait, this doesn’t make sense,’” the Tiger head coach said of the 5+11 model supported by the SEC writ large. “It doesn’t make sense for the University of Missouri. It makes sense for blue bloods who are consistently ranked in the Top 25 and every year have the implicit bias of being ranked — maybe not based off product, but based off of media marketing and branding.
“… There’s lies, there’s damn lies, and there’s statistics. We’re going to rely on statistics.”
When he took his turn on the dais in Atlanta, Drinkwitz acknowledged that he was “not going to do [himself] any favors with our commissioner” by taking the stance he was about to take. But he did it anyway. Ever the defender of Mizzou football.
That should win him some favor within the fanbase, if, that is, there were any left who weren’t fully on board with the coach who has restored winning as a fall tradition around Columbia.
And it’s for exactly that reason that Drinkwitz doesn’t need to worry about Playoff formats or automatic bids or standing alone in the field of battle.
Mizzou is a threat to make the Playoff this season, selection committee be damned.
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For a retooled Tiger squad, the 2025 season could be a perfect storm. Lost starters from the 2024 team were replaced, one for one across the board, with FBS starters from the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Kirby Moore is in a “show me the money” kind of year, staring down the prospect of an FBS head coaching gig if he performs well. Tailback Ahmad Hardy is a candidate to take the SEC by storm in the same way Cody Schrader did 2 years ago. And the schedule is remarkably favorable.
Two years ago, thanks in large part to Schrader and Moore, Mizzou won 10 regular-season games and finished 9th in the final CFP rankings. Had the 12-team Playoff been in place in 2023, the Tigers would have been playing in the opening round.
This year’s Mizzou squad could follow the same path.
Along the offensive line, Cayden Green returns as an impact player. Connor Tollison is back to man the center spot. Transfers Keagan Trost (Wake Forest), Johnny Williams IV (West Virginia), and Dominick Giudice (Michigan) fortified the group. There are questions here, but Mizzou wasn’t an elite rushing outfit in 2023 because of its line.
According to Game on Paper, the 2023 Tigers ranked in the 93rd percentile for EPA per play despite an offensive line that was in the fourth percentile for stuff rate and the 16th percentile for line yards.
Schrader ran for an FBS-best 1,627 yards with 14 touchdowns, and Brady Cook was dynamite when the Tigers went to the air. Mizzou had a 57% run rate that season because Schrader consistently shredded defenses within the scheme. Mizzou was in the 90th percentile in non-explosive EPA per play and in the 65th percentile for opportunity rate. Schrader just kept the offense humming.
Cook wasn’t a bastion of protective football — he had 10 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF — nor was he automatic in play-action situations. Cook actually had a better completion percentage on straight dropbacks than he did on play-action throws, according to PFF.
There wasn’t anything gimmicky about the success. Mizzou was really good at running the football and really good at stopping the run. Those 2 traits lead to success regardless of conference.
And Hardy is capable of the same kind of season. The 5-11, 210-pound tailback led the Sun Belt in rushing last season with 1,351 yards for Louisiana-Monroe. He ranked 7th nationally in yards gained after first contact, averaging a healthy 4.3 YAC per attempt.
He didn’t do much in the receiving game, but he didn’t need to. And he won’t have to carry the ball 300 times for Mizzou this season; freshman Marquise Davis is built like a brick house and capable of stepping in right away to fill a No. 2 role.
Hardy should be fresh all throughout the season, assuming health. He’s a hand-in-glove fit within Mizzou’s scheme.
“We run outside zone like I did at my old school,” Hardy said in the spring. “So, I feel like I’m perfecting my craft with my forceful running.”
Added Drinkwitz: “Ahmad’s a one-cut guy. He fits what we want to do on the edge. He’s explosive, he’s patient, and he knows how to find the lane.”
It’s hard not to love Hardy’s potential in this Mizzou offense. Only 2 FBS runners forced more missed tackles last season, so even if Mizzou’s offensive line is still a so-so group, you’d have to think he’s capable of Schrader-like numbers.
In such a scenario, Mizzou would need Penn State transfer quarterback Beau Pribula (or Sam Horn) to hit the big plays when they present themselves in the passing game.
The 2023 Mizzou offense was in the 93rd percentile nationally in passing success rate and EPA per dropback, per Game on Paper. Cook wasn’t uber-efficient (66% completion rate) or unflappable (6 picks) but he averaged 9 yards per pass attempt and connected on enough deep balls to keep defenses in conflict.
Cook had 52 completions of at least 20 yards in 2023, which ranked fourth among SEC passers. Pribula has the arm strength to push the ball down the field, we just haven’t seen him show it at the FBS level yet.
To that end, Mizzou’s coaching staff has done its part to make Pribula’s starting debut as fluid as possible. The Tigers added slot dynamo Kevin Coleman from Mississippi State. Among SEC receivers with at least 30 targets last year, Coleman’s 409 yards after the catch was the fourth-best. The staff needs Marquis Johnson, Joshua Manning, or Donovan Olugbode to be a downfield weapon and they have a high-low combination that can punish defenses who already have to account for Hardy.
The ingredients are there for a run-first offense that consistently produces chunk plays in the passing game. That formula produced 10 wins in 2023.
Mizzou’s defense made a sizable jump from 2023 to 2024 under the direction of coordinator Corey Batoon, and Drinkwitz held onto Batoon this offseason. Johnny Walker Jr. and Corey Flagg Jr. are both difficult to replace, but Mizzou brought in encouraging portal pieces to plug those holes. Damon Wilson II could bloom. West Virginia transfer Josiah Trotter was one of the surest tacklers in the Big 12 last season, as well as one of the league’s best run-stopping linebackers.
The Tigers were better at containing the explosives under Batoon. If there’s an area to nitpick, it was in producing turnovers. Mizzou was 10th among SEC squads in takeaways a year after leading the league. But they were a little unlucky in that category (20 expected takeaways), so it’s not necessarily an area of concern. If Mizzou is stout up front again, there will be opportunities to jump on offenses.
Mizzou plays an FCS squad to open the season. After that, it will play only 3 games against teams that ranked inside the top 25 in EPA per rush allowed last season, per Game on Paper. Seven of the Tigers’ 11 FBS opponents ranked outside the top 40.
Additionally, only 3 of Mizzou’s 11 FBS opponents this upcoming season had offenses that ranked inside the top 25 in EPA per run in 2024. Six of the 11 FBS opponents ranked outside the top 50.
Theoretically, Mizzou will be able to impose its style of play on the bulk of its 2025 schedule. Win the early downs, live ahead of the sticks on offense, set up opportunities to create splash plays on defense.
ESPN’s FPI only gives the Tigers a 9.2% chance to make the CFP. That seems particularly low for a team with a legitimate path to 10 wins. If the Tigers go 2-2 against the quartet of South Carolina (at home), Alabama (at home), Texas A&M (at home), and Oklahoma, another 10-win season is possible.
Of the remaining 8 games, Mizzou would be a favorite in 7 of them. The only exception would be a road game at Auburn on Oct. 18, and who knows what Auburn will look like at that point. Hugh Freeze has games against Oklahoma, A&M, and Georgia leading into the matchup with Mizzou.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+, Mizzou’s 2025 schedule is the weakest in the SEC. And the selection committee is not going to exclude a 10-win SEC squad regardless of how those 10 wins were accumulated. If 11 wins were enough to outweigh Indiana’s putrid schedule last fall, flip-flopping to disadvantage an SEC squad would land the committee on Greg Sankey’s burn list.
Is Mizzou a lock to reach 10 wins? Absolutely not. The Tigers have a relatively low floor because of the uncertainty at quarterback. And the defensive collapses in games against A&M and Alabama last season shouldn’t be glossed over.
But the Tigers have one of the most favorable paths to the CFP of any power conference team. They don’t have to make their conference title game to land an at-large bid, and they’ll only play 2 of the SEC teams picked to finish in the top 7 of the preseason media poll.
Mizzou was picked to finish 12th.
When Mizzou finished second in its division in 2023, it was a preseason pick to finish 6h in the East.
Standing alone, confident in itself against unfavorable odds, worked then. Who’s to say it won’t work again?
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
