ESPN’s Chris Fallica handicaps over/under totals across the SEC
By Keith Farner
Published:
With the season fast approaching, and fall camp injuries mounting, it is a great time to re-evaluate season win totals across the SEC.
That’s exactly what ESPN’s Chris “Bear” Fallica did with Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on “McElroy and Cubelic In the Morning” on WJOX out of Birmingham, Alabama.
About the Alabama over/under total of 11.5: “I think at a lot of places, you can get Alabama over 11.5 at plus money. If that’s the case, I would suggest playing Alabama over 11.5 at plus money because they’re really — when they lose, they’re going to be a double digit favorite and a big favorite on the money line, so in theory you’re able to potentially hedge off if you’re really concerned about potentially Alabama losing at Texas A&M, or losing at Florida, which I wouldn’t be, or LSU at that point in the year getting it together. Or the Iron Bowl you’re worried about Bryan Harsin winning that game. You can get those underdogs at a big number in the way those units will break down, you can get off that season win total. Especially at plus money for Alabama. But I would lean, I would consider playing the under.”
Fallica added that he believes coach Nick Saban may enjoy this team more because it likely will be carried by the defense at the start of the season, at least.
The Bear then went around the SEC.
Auburn at 7: “The Auburn side is tricky for me because you just don’t know in a couple of these situations. I think Auburn’s defense has a chance to look really, really good, especially those linebackers that they have. But how on the other side of the ball with the players that were kind of there and learned, recruited to play in Gus Malzahn’s scheme, how is that going to translate to what Bryan Harsin wants to do and his offensive philosophy now. It would not surprise me at all if Auburn opened 5-0 and went to Penn State and won, if they went to LSU and won. I think there’s too many tricky type games for Auburn. I would tend to stay away from the Auburn total, because I think the variance there is too great for my liking.”
Kentucky at 7: “It was at 6.5 and I suggested playing it at 6.5 to 7, it’s a little bit more difficult, but at the same time, I do think Kentucky at 7 is worth a play. I think now with (Will) Levis at quarterback, making that decision, you look at Kentucky’s schedule … I would make 7-5 probably the worst-case scenario for Mark Stoops’ team this year.”
Georgia at 10.5: “I would look at playing Georgia just over 7 in the SEC. … I don’t think Georgia’s going to go 6-2 in the SEC. I think worst potentially maybe they get tripped up once, whether it’s the Cocktail Party, or the game at Auburn. But you don’t get A&M, you don’t get Alabama, you don’t get LSU. The losable games that they would potentially have in the SEC, you would think that they’d have (Darnell) Washington and (Tykee) Smith and those guys back by then. I think over 7 SEC wins is kind of a free roll to go 8-0 in the conference.”
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
