ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every game on Alabama’s 2025 schedule
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It’s never easy to replace a legend. Kalen DeBoer found out first-hand in 2024. The 2023 College Football Playoff runner-up and Nick Saban successor took Alabama to the top of the AP poll with a rousing victory over Georgia in his fourth game for the Crimson Tide. From there, losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma sapped momentum from his sails.
It doesn’t take long for someone’s seat to heat up at an SEC powerhouse (Brian Kelly can testify to that). Without CFP advancement this year, DeBoer’s chair could be on coals. If he again fails to make the CFP, who knows what will be in store. Fortunately for him, ESPN’s Football Index doesn’t see him cascading down that dark path.
Ahead of Alabama’s season opener against Florida State, FPI sees the Crimson Tide as the No. 3 team in the country. That’s the good news. The bad is that both teams ahead of them, Texas and Georgia, are also in the SEC. Plenty of analysts believe Alabama will return to the SEC Championship game this season, but FPI’s 17.4% probability for them to win the conference — behind Texas’ 37.4% chance and Georgia’s 19.9% odds — shows it certainly won’t be easy to get there.
Yes, the Crimson Tide are third wheel to the Longhorns and Bulldogs in every major FPI category. But there are worse places to be than a 71.4% chance at making the CFP, 21.1% odds of a national championship appearance and 11.6% chance of capturing the CFP title. Additionally, Alabama is favored by FPI to win all but 1 of its regular-season games. If you don’t have an idea of which one that is, you haven’t been paying attention:
- Aug. 30 at Florida State – 90.6%
- Sept. 6 vs. ULM – 98.3%
- Sept. 13 vs. Wisconsin – 88.7%
- Sept. 27 at Georgia – 41.2%
- Oct. 4 vs. Vanderbilt – 90.6%
- Oct. 11 at Missouri – 69.9%
- Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee – 68.4%
- Oct. 25 at South Carolina – 60.2%
- Nov. 8 vs. LSU – 72.8%
- Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma – 79.9%
- Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois – 99.0%
- Nov. 29 at Auburn – 73.0%
Defeating the Bulldogs on the road in Week 4 could be the difference between an SEC Championship appearance — and potential CFP bye — or a road game in the first round of the CFP. Games don’t get bigger than that. But it will only mean that much if the Crimson Tide can avoid the pitfalls that doomed them in 2024. We’ll learn if DeBoer was able to traverse them with success when December rolls around. Until then, enjoy the action.
