ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every game on Tennessee’s 2025 schedule
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Following an offseason full of turmoil and drastic roster changes, Josh Heupel and the Tennessee Volunteers are likely just looking forward to focusing on what happens between the white lines.
The Volunteers survived an offseason in which their best overall player (cornerback Jermod McCoy) tore his ACL in January before their starting quarterback jumped ship following an NIL dispute in April. There is a chance McCoy returns to action later in the season, and UT snagged Joey Aguilar from UCLA in a virtual trade with the Bruins to fill the void at quarterback.
RELATED: Ready to bet on the Vols this fall? Check out the SDS guide to TN sports betting apps and get in on the action today!
With all that being said, the 2025 season is a mystery for Vol fans. Returning to the College Football Playoff appears to be a tall order, but with another stingy defense and some of Heupel’s offensive magic, Tennessee could surprise people.
ESPN’s Football Power Index slots the Vols in at No. 8 in its rankings, with them being favored in 9 of their 12 regular-season games. The FPI does give UT a 43.4% chance to return to the CFP, but the win/loss projection ranges from 9.0-3.1 and the metric only gives the program a 5.9% chance to win the SEC.
Here are the full FPI winning percentages for Tennessee’s 2025 schedule:
- Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse — 88.6%
- Sept. 6: vs. East Tennessee State — 99.0%
- Sept. 13: vs. Georgia — 40.7%
- Sept. 20: vs. UAB — 98.1%
- Sept. 27: at Mississippi State — 80.3%
- Oct. 11: vs. Arkansas — 76.6%
- Oct. 18: at Alabama — 31.6%
- Oct. 25: at Kentucky — 74.8%
- Nov. 1: vs. Oklahoma — 73.7%
- Nov. 15: vs. New Mexico State — 99.0%
- Nov. 22: at Florida — 48.5%
- Nov. 29: vs. Vanderbilt —85.2%
Current sports editor with the Enterprise-Journal in McComb, Ms. Mizzou grad '24 and college athletics enthusiast.
