ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every remaining game on Florida’s 2025 schedule
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A 5-year-old could probably tell you that Florida‘s 18-16 loss at the hands of the South Florida last Saturday was devastating. The Gators, already tasked with navigating one of the toughest schedules in the country, had little margin for error in their quest for a College Football Playoff berth. Now, they have none.
Does this mean it’s impossible for Florida to right the ship? Of course not. After all, they’ve yet to play an SEC game. But failing to beat the Bulls in Gainesville certainly doesn’t bode well for what’s to come. Ahead of this weekend’s contest against No. 3 LSU in Baton Rouge, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Gators just a 4.7% chance of reaching the CFP. That ranks 14th in the SEC, ahead of only Mississippi State (1.9%) and Kentucky (1.6%). Vanderbilt’s probability (10.7%) is more than twice as high as Florida’s.
For the Gators to have a shot at the CFP — and for Billy Napier to likely hang onto his job — they’re going to have to win as underdogs against the country’s top teams. FPI, at the moment, doesn’t see that happening. Florida faces 8 of the country’s top 17 teams — and 5 of its top 10 — across the next 12 Saturdays. The only one of them FPI sees them defeating is the in-state rival Florida State Seminoles in the final regular-season game.
- at No. 3 LSU – 38.4%
- at No. 5 Miami – 40.3%
- vs. No. 7 Texas – 28.0%
- at No. 16 Texas A&M – 36.6%
- vs. Mississippi State – 73.2%
- vs. No. 6 Georgia – 26.6%
- at Kentucky – 58.5%
- at No. 17 Ole Miss – 22.9%
- vs. No. 15 Tennessee – 35.9%
- vs. No. 10 Florida State – 60.3%
If these projections hold true, Florida will finish 4-8. The only other time the Gators have gone 4-8 over the past 45 seasons (since 1980) was 2013. Will Muschamp kept his job through that ensuing offseason, but was fired at the conclusion of the next campaign. It’s fairly safe to say Napier would be lucky to be as fortunate if he has the same mark when December rolls around.
