ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of National Championship Game between Indiana, Miami
By David Wasson
Published:
The finale of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff is set for Monday when No. 1 seed Indiana tries to cap a perfect season against No. 10 seed Miami at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
The Hoosiers aim to not only become the first 16-0 team in college football history but also capture the program’s only national championship. The Hurricanes (13-2) look to finish a Cinderella run through the Playoff with a sixth national title at their home stadium.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated their projection for Monday’s CFP title game, giving coach Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers a 68.3 percent chance to head back to Bloomington with the trophy.
Indiana turned in the program’s first undefeated regular season then won its first consensus Big Ten title since 1945 by squeaking past then-No. 1 Ohio State 13-10. The Hoosiers then dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and pounded Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl.
Miami was a controversial choice to make the 12-team Playoff field, earning the spot over Notre Dame partially on the strength of a 27-24 victory against the Fighting Irish on Oct. 31. The Hurricanes backed up the bid by downing Texas A&M 10-3, upsetting the Buckeyes 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl and then taking down Ole Miss 31-27 in the Fiesta Bowl.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
