ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome of Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Published:
The battle of two SEC teams that are vying for their first conference victory of the season. Mississippi State has struggled significantly, enduring a 16-game losing streak in the SEC that dates back to October 2023. Despite these challenging times, head coach Jeff Lebby’s squad has shown resilience, narrowly missing victories in close contests against Texas, Florida, and Tennessee this season.
Meanwhile, Arkansas enters the game with a record of 2-6. Interim head coach Bobby Petrino has revitalized the offense, leading to competitive performances where four of their losses were by just one score. However, “what could have been” does not translate into wins.
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One team will emerge with a much-needed conference win this week, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) favors Arkansas with a projected 60% chance of victory over Mississippi State’s 40%.
The Bulldogs are coming off a strong offensive performance against Texas, where quarterback Blake Shapen threw for 382 yards and five touchdowns against a formidable Longhorns defense. The Bulldogs appear to be finding their rhythm with a more balanced offensive approach and an energized defense that is generating turnovers. A critical question remains: will Mississippi State’s anticipated ground game finally make its mark? If it does, it could prove decisive against an Arkansas defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards in four of its last five games. While the Razorbacks have demonstrated some ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, they may struggle to contain an effective ground attack.
Both teams possess productive offenses; however, Arkansas has shown greater depth in its scoring capabilities. The key challenge for both squads will be converting offensive production into tangible wins. Notably, quarterback Taylen Green has been improving steadily, particularly evident in his performance against Auburn. The Razorbacks aim to establish control early in the game to limit Mississippi State’s opportunities.
Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET from Fayetteville and will air on the SEC Network.
Lee Ann joins the Saturday Down South team, bringing over fifteen years of experience covering the SEC as both a sports journalist and football scout. With her keen eye for talent, she has also flexes her skills as the Director of Recruiting for the Rebel Walk( Ole Miss) Herring, is a staff writer at USA Today Sports Wildcats Wire, where she dives into the thrilling world of Kentucky football and basketball. When fall rolls around, you can catch her on air as an analyst for the Wake up 502 College Football Show on Big X Sports Radio 96.1 FM—because who doesn't love a good game day chat? A proud Brown University alum, Lee Ann balances her time between the sidelines and press box with her passion for coaching her boys' youth lacrosse and savoring a fine glass of bourbon alongside a good cigar. So, whether she's dissecting plays or rallying the next generation of athletes, Lee Ann is your spirited insider ready to tackle all things SEC!
