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ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts the outcome of each college football game ahead of every week. After a wild Week 13, the model has updated its predictions for Rivalry Week.
For the 2024 version of the Iron Bowl, the model sees Alabama as a heavy favorite. The model gives the Tide an 87.7% chance to win this game, which means the Tigers have just a 12.3% chance to pull off the upset.
The Tide suffered their 3rd loss of the season in Week 13, falling to the Oklahoma Sooners. The team now has losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, and desperately needs a win over their arch-rival in Week 14 to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race.
Auburn, meanwhile, picked up a 4OT win over Texas A&M in Week 13. The Iron Bowl is always contentious, but the Tigers would love to end Alabama’s Playoff chances and secure bowl eligibility in the process.
The Tigers are 5-6 but easily could have had a much better record. The team has 3 losses by less than 10 points and has been plagued by turnovers and inconsistency.
Meanwhile, the Tide have looked like the Alabama teams we’re accustomed to at times, but have also been inconsistent. The biggest wins for the team came against Georgia and LSU.
This is one of college football’s oldest and most heated rivalries, with the teams playing every season since 1948. The Tide have won 50 times compared to the Tigers’ 37 wins. This season’s version of the rivalry will kick off from Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Bryce Lazenby covers college football for Saturday Down South. A Nashville native, his previous stops include FanSided, Dimers, and The Leaf-Chronicle.
