ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Alabama’s schedule
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It took the Alabama Crimson Tide a week to get their feet under them. Since the season-opening loss to Florida State, Kalen DeBoer‘s team has been sharp as an obsidian blade.
The Crimson Tide didn’t score in the second half of their 24-21 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 5. Regardless, they perfectly employed a ball-control offense that churned out first downs and wound down the clock to end the Bulldogs’ 33-game home winning streak. The triumph ranks right up there with Oregon’s win over Penn State as the best victory of the season.
ESPN’s Football Power Index currently believes Alabama is the No. 3 team in the country, behind the aforementioned Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. There’s still plenty of time for the Crimson Tide to ascend to their usual perch, though, thanks to matchups with 5 ranked teams over their next 6 games. FPI projects Alabama will win each of their remaining games, but doesn’t give them a better than 80% chance of beating any FBS opponent the rest of the way.
Here’s a look at the updated win probabilities for UA:
- Oct. 4 vs. No. 16 Vanderbilt – 74.3%
- Oct. 11 at No. 19 Missouri – 61.8%
- Oct. 18 vs. No. 15 Tennessee – 70.6%
- Oct. 25 at South Carolina – 78.3%
- Nov. 8 vs. No. 13 LSU – 78.0%
- Nov. 15 vs. No. 5 Oklahoma – 73.4%
- Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois – 99.0%
- Nov. 29 at Auburn – 73.9%
Those percentages speak to the quality of Alabama’s schedule more than anything else. Assuming the Crimson Tide don’t lose to South Carolina and Auburn (or Eastern Illinois), 9-3 should be good enough to get them into the College Football Playoff this go-round. But saving everyone the headache and winning 10 games would be much less stressful.
