ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Florida’s schedule
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The Florida Gators had a swift fall from the grace of the AP poll this season. Losing at home to South Florida, for better or worse, will do that to you. That defeat put the Gators in a funk for more losses, to LSU and Miami, leading into their Week 6 bye.
The off week presented head coach Billy Napier with an opportunity to fix some of Florida’s problems. The Gators’ ensuing 29-21 victory over then No. 9 Texas now has things looking a bit more promising for October and November than any Florida fan would have expected after the team’s September swoon.
When we last checked in with ESPN’s Football Power Index about the Gators, things looked bleak. Back then, FPI only gave Florida a 6.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. Those odds have essentially quintupled (30.0%) following the win versus the Longhorns. The schedule remains incredibly difficult, but if the Gators team that showed up in Week 6 is the one that takes the field for the rest of 2025, you never know what could happen.
Here are FPI’s updated win probabilities for Florida (percentages in parenthesis show increase from FPI projections on Sept. 25):
- Oct. 11 at No. 5 Texas A&M – 26.1% (+3.3%)
- Oct. 18 vs. Mississippi State – 67.7% (+12.1%)
- Nov. 1 vs. No. 10 Georgia – 23.5% (+6.0%)
- Nov. 8 at Kentucky – 61.4% (+12.7%)
- Nov. 15 at No. 4 Ole Miss – 20.4% (+5.5%)
- Nov. 22 vs. No. 12 Tennessee – 37.0% (+8.7%)
- Nov. 29 vs. No. 25 Florida State – 51.2% (+9.9%)
The Gators and Aggies kick off in Week 7 at 7:00 p.m. E.T. (ESPN).
