ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Florida’s schedule
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After nearly 4 years as the Florida Gators‘ head football coach, Billy Napier was fired on Sunday. Florida’s fanbase had been clamoring for his dismissal for quite some time, so there’s not much disappointment about the news in Gainesville, even if the timing — following a win over Mississippi State — feels odd.
The Gators are on bye in Week 9, which gives interim coach Billy Gonzales roughly 13 days to prepare for Florida’s rivalry matchup with Georgia. The Gators (3-4, 2-2 SEC) need 3 wins to earn bowl eligibility, something ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a just 29.8% chance of accomplishing.
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Why? Because Florida plays 3 top 17 teams in November. Unsurprisingly, FPI doesn’t see the Gators beating any of those squads. Here are their projected win probabilities:
- Nov. 1 vs. No. 5 Georgia – 19.9%
- Nov. 8 at Kentucky – 56.3%
- Nov. 15 at No. 8 Ole Miss – 24.0%
- Nov. 22 vs. No. 17 Tennessee – 37.6%
- Nov. 29 vs. Florida State – 56.8%
Is Florida guaranteed to win any of these games? No. The contests FPI expects the Gators to win are de facto coin flips. Regardless, we’ve seen teams — UCLA and UAB, most notably — rise to the occasion after firing their coach. Florida still has all the talent in the world, and has nothing left to lose. That makes them a dangerous potential spoiler down the stretch, no matter what FPI may project.
