ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on LSU’s schedule
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Through 3 games, the LSU Tigers are 3-0. Shockingly, this record comes on the back of a stifling defense, not an electrifying offense.
At the end of the day, wins are all that matter. So, even though things haven’t looked as many — Brian Kelly included — anticipated thus far, there’s worse places for the Tigers to be. Right now, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them the country’s 13th-best odds (34.5%) of reaching the College Football Playoff.
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No, that placement doesn’t align with LSU’s No. 3 ranking in the AP poll. Eight other SEC teams having a higher CFP probability, per FPI, also doesn’t track with that status. Once you see the Tigers have 4 road games against top-20 teams remaining on their schedule, though, it makes more sense. FPI currently projects LSU to lose each of those contests, but an offensive uptick in the weeks ahead could drive its win probability in a positive direction.
Here are the updated win probabilities:
- Sept. 20 vs. Southeastern Louisiana – 98.5%
- Sept. 27 at No. 13 Ole Miss – 30.5%
- Oct. 11 vs. South Carolina – 75.2%
- Oct. 18 at No. 20 Vanderbilt – 40.4%
- Oct. 25 vs. No. 10 Texas A&M – 51.6%
- Nov. 8 at No. 14 Alabama – 22.9%
- Nov. 15 vs. Arkansas – 57.1%
- Nov. 22 vs. Western Kentucky – 96.0%
- Nov. 29 at No. 11 Oklahoma – 36.1%
It’s a daunting slate, to say the least. However, walking out of just 1 road environment with a victory — assuming wins in every home game — would presumably put the Tigers in position for a CFP berth, even with a 9-3 record. Clemson regaining its footing and climbing back into the AP poll may be a necessity, though, if LSU does take 3 losses.
