ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Mizzou’s schedule
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If you had told Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz that his squad would have better odds at making the College Football Playoff than the country’s preseason No. 2 team through 4 weeks, would he have said, “you’re crazy?”
There is no way to answer that question. Regardless, the fact that it’s true is noteworthy. Right now, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Tigers have a 39.7% chance of reaching the CFP. The Nittany Lions (39.5%) sit a couple decimal points behind them.
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Mizzou’s current CFP odds rank 12th in the nation and 7th in the SEC. There’s still plenty of work to be done, though. On Oct. 18, the Tigers will have to leave the comforts of Faurot Field for the first time this season. FPI believes Mizzou will win just 2 of their 4 road games, and 5 of 8 remaining contests overall.
Here are the updated win probabilities:
- Sept. 27 vs. UMass – 99.0%
- Oct. 11 vs. No. 17 Alabama – 43.0%
- Oct. 18 at Auburn – 51.6%
- Oct. 25 at No. 18 Vanderbilt – 44.0%
- Nov. 8 vs. No. 9 Texas A&M – 58.7%
- Nov. 15 vs. Mississippi State – 78.5%
- Nov. 22 at No. 7 Oklahoma – 44.8%
- Nov. 29 at Arkansas – 55.7%
Would the Tigers have to overperform and find a 10th win to earn a CFP spot? Perhaps. Fortunately, their lowest win probability (43%) suggests every matchup left to come should be close. If Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy are on the field in those situations, Mizzou is going to feel pretty confident in them delivering a victory. Kickoff between the Minutemen and Tigers this weekend is set for 7:30 p.m. E.T. (ESPNU).
