ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Tennessee’s schedule
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Somehow, some way, Tennessee is 2-1 today. The Volunteers certainly didn’t think they’d have a loss on their ledger after the first quarter of their thrilling matchup versus Georgia, but things happen.
In the past, this would have been a doomsday scenario. Just 2 years ago, Josh Heupel‘s team would have had to run the table to maintain even the slimmest chance at a College Football Playoff berth. But in the 12-team CFP era, there’s more wiggle room. So, even after the disappointing result against the Bulldogs, Tennessee has a 30.8% chance of reaching the CFP, per ESPN’s Football Power Index.
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Is that good? We’ll say it’s not great, but doable. That percentage is 14th-best in the country, but is effectively 16th-best because no Big 12 or Group of Five team — who will send 2 conference champions to the CFP via automatic bid — currently has better odds. It’s also ninth-best amongst SEC schools.
Bottom line? Tennessee is in an envious position to many, even if it doesn’t feel like it right now. ESPN’s FPI sees the Volunteers losing just 1 game the rest of the way. If Heupel and Co. simply follow that script, they’ll return to the CFP without issue.
Here are the updated win probabilities for Tennessee’s remaining games:
- Sept. 20 vs. UAB – 98.7% chance to win
- Sept. 27 at Mississippi State – 76.8%
- Oct. 11 vs. Arkansas – 72.8%
- Oct. 18 at No. 14 Alabama – 33.6%
- Oct. 25 at Kentucky – 77.1%
- Nov. 1 vs. No. 11 Oklahoma – 64.3%
- Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State – 99.0%
- Nov. 22 at Florida – 68.1%
- Nov. 29 vs. No. 20 Vanderbilt – 69.4%
The Vols take on the Blazers this Saturday at 12:45 p.m. E.T. on SEC Network.
