ESPN’s FPI updates projections for every remaining game on Tennessee’s schedule
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Boy, Starkville is a tough place to play, isn’t it?
The Tennessee Volunteers flirted with disaster against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5. Fortunately for Vols fans, that flirtation proved to be harmless thanks to Joey Aguilar’s record-setting day. With the 41-34 overtime victory, Tennessee is 4-1 and remains squarely in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt.
At this moment, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Volunteers a 29.2% chance of making the CFP. Those odds don’t sound great, and are 9th-best in the SEC, but are 17th-best in the country overall. Tennessee still gets to face 3 of the SEC squads ahead of them, so there’s an opportunity for the Volunteers to win their way past those teams and into the dance. FPI sees them beating 2 of those foes and winning 6 of 7 games overall to end the season.
Here are the updated win probabilities:
- Oct. 11 vs. Arkansas – 83.5%
- Oct. 18 at No. 10 Alabama – 29.4%
- Oct. 25 at Kentucky – 80.2%
- Nov. 1 vs. No. 5 Oklahoma – 63.7%
- Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State – 99.0%
- Nov. 22 at Florida – 69.3%
- Nov. 29 vs. Vanderbilt – 60.7%
A 10-2 record with losses to only Georgia and Alabama would likely get Tennessee into the CFP. It might even secure a home game for the first round. There’s still roughly half of the season left, but the Volunteers should feel good about their chances. They’ll kickoff with the Razorbacks in Week 7 at 4:15 p.m. E.T. (SEC Network).
