With just one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is beginning to take on a clearer shape.
Résumé-boosting wins by the likes of Oregon and Oklahoma held off any form of chaos, and even Utah avoided a disastrous loss to Kansas State in order to stay in the CFP picture.
Rivalry week and its many twists and turns lies ahead, and before this week’s festivities kicks off, ESPN’s Heather Dinich released her latest CFP projections.
From the SEC, Dinich has Texas A&M holding serve at No. 3, although she notes that the Aggies are in danger of dropping drastically if they fall to Texas.
“It’s unlikely anything will change in the third ranking, but if Texas A&M loses to Texas — and doesn’t win the SEC — it will be interesting to see where the Aggies fall on Selection Day. They didn’t face Alabama or Georgia during the regular season, playing just the 12th-most difficult schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics — ahead of only Vandy, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Aggies rank just outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.“
A TAMU loss to the Longhorns would be a welcomed sight for Georgia, who Dinich slides in at No. 4. The Bulldogs’ lone loss appears to be the only thing separating it from TAMU, as the metrics for both programs are similar.
“It would be surprising to see the committee move Georgia this week — especially since everyone played weaker opponents and Texas Tech was on a bye — but if Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies. The committee would compare Texas as a common opponent, and Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly. Georgia also has more wins against ranked opponents (a win against Georgia Tech could add another) and a slightly tougher schedule. Some committee members might also think Georgia has a slightly better loss (Alabama) than A&M (Texas).“
A major debate for Dinich resided in how to rank Oregon following the Ducks’ strong win over USC, as the Big Ten squad could make an argument to jump ahead of Ole Miss in some regards.
“The committee members could consider bumping Oregon ahead of Ole Miss, as they’ve been waiting for a performance like Saturday’s against another CFP contender and the Ducks delivered against USC. Oregon and Ole Miss are extremely close in both strength of record and strength of schedule, and they both lost to a top-four team. Ole Miss also has a win against Tulane, which is now the leader for a Group of 5 playoff spot, and the win against the Sooners was on the road, whereas Oregon beat USC at home. With everything else so comparable, those are some small details that might continue to lean in the Rebels’ favor — if maybe for only another week.”
Dinich also believes that Oklahoma and Notre Dame are neck-and-neck at No. 8 and No. 9 respectively, which would prompt them to meet in Round One.
“If the playoff were today, the debate between Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be settled on the field — in Norman, where the Sooners would have home-field advantage in the first round. The No. 8 spot is the last team in the ranking to host a first-round game.”
Alabama slides behind Notre Dame at No. 10, and while Dinich doesn’t necessarily agree with the Crimson Tide being behind the Fighting Irish, she doesn’t see that changing this week.
“If Alabama’s résumé wasn’t enough to keep the Tide ahead of Notre Dame last week, it’s unlikely to change this week. Alabama entered Saturday No. 8 in strength of record and No. 2 in strength of schedule, both ahead of Notre Dame.”
Here is Dinich’s CFP field based on her latest top 12
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Ole Miss
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Miami (ACC champion)
- Tulane (American champion)
Parker is currently the sports editor for the Enterprise-Journal in McComb, Mississippi. He's a graduate from Mizzou who has experience covering the Tiger football and basketball beats for SB Nation, and he's worked for a variety of sports news outlets in the past.
