Y’all. It’s here.
Alabama-Clemson Part IV is just hours away, and you’re pretending like you’re working. Good for you. I appreciate you allowing me to partake in your procrastination.
You have thoughts about tonight’s title game showdown. So do I.
Here they are:
The winner will be in the G.O.A.T. conversation
I say this now because if that take comes out within 24 hours of Monday night, it’s a prisoner of the moment deal. But think about it. This will be the first 15-0 national champ since Penn in 1897.
So basically, the winner would be the first to ever really hit that 15-0 mark. It’s unbelievable to think about how good both of these teams have been, considering Alabama had arguably the most dominant regular season ever (all wins by 22 points) while Clemson is riding a 9-game winning streak with an average margin of victory of 37 points.
Time will tell if we value the winner of this game like 2004 USC, 2001 Miami (FL) or 1995 Nebraska. The discussion will at least be worth having considering how many games it took for both of these teams, and how dominant they were in the regular season.
As much as the “who’s the G.O.A.T.” conversation annoys all of us at times, it might be legitimately worth revisiting by game’s end on Monday night.
I wouldn’t bank on many freshman mistakes from Trevor Lawrence
Shameless plug alert. I wrote a piece on the Clemson true freshman in which I outlined why just by taking a snap, he’s already doing something unprecedented on Monday night. No No. 1 overall recruit has started as quarterback as a true freshman in the national championship. Lawrence will be the first.
That aforementioned 9-game run has all been with Lawrence as the starter. There’s a reason that the Tigers have been so upset-proof. Pro Football Focus has Lawrence rated as the least-mistake prone quarterback in America. That’s not just among true freshmen. That’s everyone.
Lawrence is more mobile than he gets credit for, and at 6-6, he’s not getting balls batted at the line of scrimmage. He’s already got the arm strength to make any throw, and his ability to read coverages is ahead of his time. There probably won’t be too many ill-advised throws that wind up in the hands of an Alabama defender. If there are, the Crimson Tide best not let them slip away.
I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t attack Patrick Surtain II
Something I would bank on seeing from Lawrence is him taking shots at the true freshman. Surtain, while extremely talented and promising as a potential 3-year starter in Nick Saban’s defensive backfield, looked like the Crimson Tide’s weak link against Oklahoma. Once Kyler Murray figured out that CeeDee Lamb was capable of exposing the true freshman, it was downhill from there with that matchup.
Alabama is willing to leave Surtain out on an island because he was really solid in the regular season. But the Tigers have big, physical receivers on the outside in Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins. I’m not sure which of those guys Surtain is able to contain. After what we saw from Ross against Notre Dame, the true freshman and Alabama native is plenty capable of taking over a game.
Surtain’s ability to shake off what was easily the worst game of his young career is going to be huge. I have to think that Dabo Swinney, the former receiver, is going to have a plan of attack to test Surtain.
And knowing how accurate Lawrence is, I wouldn’t be surprised if Surtain struggled again.
Tua Tagovailoa just sounds like he’s in total control
There are certain times when you listen to someone speak and you just get a feeling for where they’re at. You can see it on someone’s face when the moment is too big for them. I think you can also tell when everything feels under control.
That’s the sense I’ve had from the Alabama quarterback since the Orange Bowl.
Listening to him talk to the media, he just seemed like someone who had been there before. Obviously, he has albeit not in a starting role. He joked with Alabama safety Xavier McKinney on the conference call last week, but perhaps even more importantly, he answered questions honestly and he seemed engaged. Tagovailoa didn’t come off as the robot that some would probably expect from basically all Alabama players before a national championship.
Part of that confidence could stem from the fact that he finally got through a full game without heading to the injury tent. The ankle wasn’t an issue. While Tagovailoa continues to get treatment for the ankle, I think it gave him a key mental boost to not aggravate it against Oklahoma.
My sense from Tagovailoa is if you’re an Alabama fan worried about the sophomore feeling pressure or not being in the right state of mind, I’d put those concerns to bed.
And don’t forget about what Jake Bentley and Kellen Mond did to Clemson
Whenever I think about how Tagovailoa is going to match up against Clemson, I keep reverting back to what 2 other SEC quarterbacks did to the Tigers (that was with Dexter Lawrence):
- Mond: 430 passing yards, 3 TDs, 58% accuracy
- Bentley: 510 passing yards, 5 TDs, 64% accuracy
To recap, Clemson’s defense allowed an average of 470 passing yards, 4 touchdown passes and 60% accuracy against SEC quarterbacks in 2018. And no offense to Mond and Bentley, but Tagovailoa is just a taaaaaaaad bit better. And so are those Alabama receivers.
Even if the likes of Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins are able to at least hit Tagovailoa, I find it extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Alabama passing game doesn’t have several chunk plays.
Clemson’s No. 3 run defense will make Alabama want to throw the ball more than they ever have in this matchup. In the first 3 matchups, Alabama has never thrown more than 31 times against the Tigers. That’ll change on Monday night, regardless of what game flow dictates.
Why Alabama’s last 2 games could be the advantage down the stretch
When Alabama lost to Clemson in 2016, it seemed like the Crimson Tide just ran out of gas. That is, they looked like a team unfamiliar with playing all 60 minutes, and the Tigers were better down the stretch.
Up until the SEC Championship, that was a lingering concern in the back of my mind. Alabama had won every game by at least 22 points, and Tagovailoa didn’t throw a single fourth-quarter incompletion in the entire regular season. But after the thriller in the SEC Championship and even the 11-point win in the Orange Bowl, Alabama finally had to convert key first downs late.
Call me crazy, but I think that matters. That’s from the coaching staff on down. When it’s 3rd and 5 with 3 minutes left and you need to get a first down on your own 20 to keep the opposing offense off the field, what do you do? Fortunately, Alabama has at least crossed that bridge a few times.
Clemson, on the other hand, hasn’t really had a moment like that since September when Lawrence was out and Chase Brice saved the day against Syracuse. Was that moment important? Absolutely. But is Clemson going to be adequately prepared to go all 60 on both sides of the ball? That, I have a tough time believing.
My final score prediction probably isn’t accounting for the potential wild card
This game, played in normal conditions, should be a shootout. These offenses are special, and both of these quarterbacks are capable of turning this into a game reminiscent of Part I, when Alabama prevailed in a 45-40 dandy.
But with this game inexplicably being played in Santa Clara, there could be chilly, windy conditions. And realize that by “chilly,” I’m talking about a game being played in the 50s. At the same time, if weather or field conditions has any impact on this one, it’ll probably change the shootout possibility. On another note, that would serve as another reason why Santa Clara was a mistake for the title game.
For now, though, I’ll stick with my final score prediction. It’s based on my belief that both teams are loaded with offensive firepower, and they’ll trade touchdowns until Tagovailoa leads a game-winning drive, but in regulation this time.
I’ll go with the boring pick, but certainly not the boring game.
Alabama 42, Clemson 38.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
