FiveThirtyEight updates CFP predictions through Week 4 results
By Keith Farner
Published:
There is little change in this week’s updated predictions for the College Football Playoff from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, however there is significant shift among the top 10 programs.
Georgia remained at No. 5, while Notre Dame slipped from No. 6 to No. 9 following the biggest game of last weekend.
Through Week 4, the top teams are Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma, with Georgia and LSU immediately outside the hypothetical Playoff bracket. Wisconsin, Auburn, Notre Dame and Oregon rounded out the top 10.
Last week, Silver listed the top four teams for the CFP as Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State. Georgia, Notre Dame, LSU, Wisconsin, Penn State and Florida finished out the top 10.
Interestingly, as a feature of the web site, there is a click option to see how the forecasts change based on the rest of the season’s results. So the head-to-head matchups between Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and LSU are vital to those teams making the Playoff. If all of those teams win out, each has a 99 percent chance of making the Playoff. Currently, Alabama has a 45 percent chance of making the Playoff, while Georgia sits at 35 percent, LSU at 22 percent and Auburn at 14 percent.
Alabama has a 35 percent chance of winning the SEC, while Georgia is at 29 percent. LSU is at 14 and Auburn at 9.
How about winning the national title? Alabama’s chances are 45 percent, LSU is listed at 38 percent, Georgia 35 percent and Auburn at 23 percent.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
