Florida Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Gators in 2025

What changed so quickly for Florida’s 2024 outlook?

You could answer that question in a variety of ways. You could say that Florida refused to splinter when things got tight after a disastrous start. You could say that the defense figured things out in ways that it hadn’t at any point in the 2020s. You could say that Billy Napier found the identity of his team at the most critical time possible.

Or, you could just simplify it and say that the Gators would be in a new era if not for DJ Lagway. That’s all you really need to know.

Lagway went 6-0 in games that he started and finished. His lone loss in a start came when he got hurt and left with a first-half lead against Georgia. Lagway’s emergence as the decorated true freshman saved Napier’s job. That’s important context heading into 2025 because Napier’s future is still in question. Lagway’s play will be synonymous with that. Specifically, his well-documented health will be synonymous with that. Not being able to throw a football all spring added doubt back to the Gators’ 2025 outlook, and it didn’t help that Lagway opened fall camp in a boot.

So what does that mean for 2025?

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Auburn

Let’s continue with Florida:

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How healthy is DJ Lagway going to be in 2025?

This just in — Lagway’s health is a popular topic of conversation in Gainesville. It’s already been mentioned twice and we haven’t even discussed another player yet. That feels … fitting.

We won’t know how Lagway’s shoulder will hold up after he rehabbed it and gave it rest all spring. We can hear all the positive reports out of camp, but reality is, taking hits in the SEC is a different story than a slow-motion video of Lagway connecting with a target downfield. That’ll be a topic of discussion all season, especially knowing that Lagway’s backups are the well-traveled former Tennessee/UNLV/Louisville transfer Harrison Bailey and former Yale transfer Aidan Warner. There’s potential for the bottom to fall out if Lagway misses time with a shoulder injury or any other issue.

The good news is that we already saw Lagway work through a hamstring injury and play at a high level in the latter part of 2025. He’s aware of what’s at stake. That doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be on the same page with a new-look group of pass-catchers, or that he’ll work through some of the freshman mistakes that plagued him at times in 2024.

But Florida has a budding star at quarterback. Questions surrounding his durability certainly trump questions surrounding his talent.

Florida’s defense turned the corner … right?

That’s another pressing question. Ron Roberts deserves a ton of credit for flipping the switch after the Gators endured a disastrous start to the season. Florida allowed an average of 13 points in its final 4 contests, and it showed signs of life that weren’t there when that group surrendered 27 points per contest before October. There’s reason to believe that Florida can sustain that late-season momentum. Why?

It starts up front with Tyreak Sapp and Caleb Banks returning on the defensive line. Those 2 preseason All-SEC and way-too-early NFL Draft targets will set the tone for that unit, which ranks No. 25 in FBS in percentage of returning defensive production. That’s perhaps a difference between this year and any in recent history. Including Jake Slaughter and Austin Barber on the offensive line, it’s been a minute since Florida has had multiple players in the trenches on both sides of the ball who are getting preseason All-SEC and first-round consideration.

The Gators have yet to have a top-60 run defense in the 2020s. Perhaps that’s why it’s not a surprise to know that Florida’s only All-SEC selection of the Napier era was Princely Umanmielen, who transferred to Ole Miss and trashed Florida’s defensive coaching upon arrival. That has to change this year, especially with all of the talented backfields that Florida will see to start the year. LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M all have ground attacks that can take over a game.

Was last year’s defensive finish for real? We’re going to find out in a hurry.

Florida’s Win Total Over/Under

Odds (via BetMGM)

• Over 7.5 wins (+100)
• Under 7.5 wins (-120)

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Gators:

Week 1: vs. LIU (W)

You have to assume that Florida will be monitoring Lagway’s usage closely knowing that there’s an emphasis on getting him reps with his wideouts, while also knowing that the last thing the Gators can afford is watching him get hurt in a 42-0 game. That’ll be the only thing worth watching in this one.

Week 2: vs. South Florida (W)

Don’t underestimate the type of effort that Alex Golesh’s program will bring to The Swamp. This is their Super Bowl. The saving grace for Florida should be a ground game that should have a significant advantage, as long as it doesn’t hold back knowing the gauntlet that awaits. My guess is that creates for a slow start that has some wondering if Florida is prepared. But Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson will spark that rushing attack and turn a competitive start into a 1-sided finish.

Week 3: at LSU (L)

This is one the premier showdowns of the entire season, as it should be. For the first time since 2019, I expect both teams to be in the top 25 with legitimate Playoff aspirations. For all the talk about what Brian Kelly can’t do as a head coach, this is exactly the type of game that reminds you what he can do. Since he took over at Notre Dame in 2010, Kelly is 16-7 vs. AP Top 25 teams at home. That’s nearly identical to Dabo Swinney‘s 16-6 mark during that stretch. After Florida stymied the LSU offense, the Tigers flip the script by attacking downfield. Florida can’t find the answers for Nic Anderson, who delivers a 60-yard touchdown. Lagway keeps Florida within a touchdown late into the second half, but an untimely interception to Mansoor Delane closes the book on a comeback attempt.

Week 4: at Miami (W)

Last year, a healthy Carson Beck looked overwhelmed by the Florida defense. Mind you, that was with familiar surroundings as a Year 2 starter. At Miami, I do wonder how limited Beck will be early on after the elbow injury knocked him out of spring camp. Beck isn’t Cam Ward 2.0. More importantly, he doesn’t have the weapons that Ward had. That makes an overwhelmed Beck unable to navigate the Florida pressure. A new-look Miami defense isn’t the doormat that it was down the stretch, but it also doesn’t have enough answers to prevent Tre Wilson and J Michael Sturdivant from taking over in the second half. Napier earns the biggest road win of his Florida tenure.

Week 5: Bye

Florida enters its first bye of the year with a respectable 3-1 record. Now let’s dive into more SEC action.

Week 6: vs. Texas (L)

It’s wild to think that Lagway will have battles with Nussmeier, Beck and Arch Manning before the calendar hits mid-October. Of course, this battle will be determined by the big-time throws that both signal-callers can make against battle-tested defenses. Manning already got his big-time road experience at Ohio State, so The Swamp won’t necessarily be a series of firsts, other than it being his first SEC road start. It wouldn’t be surprising if he struggled at times. But this is when Lagway’s lack of rapport with his receivers proves costly. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski does too many things pre-snap that confuse the young quarterback. That leads to a couple of turnovers that set up short Texas fields and ultimately, silences The Swamp.

Week 7: at Texas A&M (L)

It’s no secret that A&M recruited Lagway hard. The Texas native ultimately turned down repeated attempts to flip to the Aggies, which will be at the forefront of this showdown. It’ll have a different feel than the lopsided 2024 matchup because Florida is a different team. But the result is the same. Lagway can’t take advantage of an inconsistent A&M defense, and a reluctancy to use his legs forces him into too many tough decisions. Marcel Reed plays the best game of his young career and manages to keep Florida guessing. A 31-21 A&M victory drops the Gators to 0-3 in SEC play.

Week 8: vs. Mississippi State (W)

This was the get-right game for Florida a year ago. I’ll expect that to be the case once again. Florida’s got too much pride to return to The Swamp and let the Bulldogs win battles at the line of scrimmage. That leads to the Gators letting some frustration out on Jeff Lebby‘s squad. Florida’s first SEC win takes longer than expected, but it gets some positive vibes going into the layoff before Georgia.

Week 9: Bye

The Gators’ second bye comes the week before the rivalry showdown against Georgia.

Week 10: vs. Georgia in Jacksonville (W)

I won’t do the thing where I say that Florida definitely would’ve won that game last year had Lagway stayed in. I will, however, do the thing where I say Georgia will have at least 1 regular season game in which it catches a team on the wrong day. That’s the Cocktail Party. Florida sprints out to a 17-0 lead and has Georgia’s head spinning before it can settle in. UGA eventually gets the ground game going in the second quarter, but finally in Jacksonville, everything Florida does offensively works. The balance is there. The big plays are there. As a result, the stunning upset victory is there, as well.

Week 11: at Kentucky (W)

Once upon a time, this was seen as a measuring stick game for Napier. No more. The Gators finally have the blue-collar identity to take care of Kentucky on an annual basis. That means leaning on Baugh and Jackson early and often. In an effort to preserve Lagway for the home stretch, the Gators feature a run-heavy approach that does enough to keep the Cats at an arm’s length. Florida’s SEC win streak continues.

Week 12: at Ole Miss (L)

A 3-loss Florida team and a 2-loss Ole Miss squad meet in what’s essentially a Playoff elimination game. Who has the advantage? This time, it’s Ole Miss. A revenge game for Lane Kiffin gets the Oxford faithful in peak form. Instead of crumbling in short-yardage situations like it did last year, Ole Miss’s offensive line takes care of business against that respected Florida front. Austin Simmons gets time to throw and Cayden Lee gives the Gators secondary all sorts of issues. Simmons racks up 300 yards through the air while Lagway is unable to find consistency moving the chains. Kiffin keeps Ole Miss’s Playoff hopes alive and Florida is all but toast after a late-season push.

Week 13: vs. Tennessee (W)

Death, taxes and Florida beating Tennessee in The Swamp … that’s the way the saying goes, right? Nothing is a more favorable sight for Florida than seeing Tennessee in Gainesville, and in the 2025 edition of that recurring performance, that proves true once again. Tennessee’s passing attack is in over its head against the Florida defense, which has consistently shown up with its hair on fire at home. This serves as the long overdue breakout game for highly touted true freshman Dallas Wilson, who records the first 100-yard game of his career. Florida’s home winning streak against Tennessee hits 11 games.

Week 14: vs. Florida State (W)

I don’t want to say that Gus Malzahn will never coach a competent offense again. But I just don’t have faith that it’ll be with the 2025 version of Florida State. That plays out in The Swamp, where the Gators again let the defense do the heavy lifting. Bryce Thornton picks off Thomas Castellanos twice, one of which is returned to the house. Lagway has an up-and-down day with multiple turnovers, but he finds Tre Wilson for a dagger touchdown early in the 4th quarter. That puts a fitting bow on Florida’s back-and-forth 8-4 regular season.

2025 projection: 8-4 (4-4), 7th in SEC

Florida avoids disaster with a daunting schedule, but is it enough to make the Playoff?

12-team Playoff berth? No

While I’d argue that all of Florida’s outcomes for the 2025 season are chaotic, this might be the least chaotic of the bunch.

An 8-4 season that includes headliner wins against Miami and Georgia would certainly appease the masses who’d like to see a higher ceiling under Napier. But an 0-3 start to SEC play would have plenty questioning whether Napier is the guy. My gut says the former would carry more weight and he’d become the first Florida coach in the post-Urban Meyer era to earn a Year 5.

An 8-4 season with that schedule would be, by Vegas standards, exceeding expectations. Context will be important. How is Lagway managed? Does he look like he’s becoming everything that Florida fans hoped he’d be? Is it a team that can bully anyone in the trenches in a way that it couldn’t in recent memory? Are games being lost by poor coaching decisions late? All of those things matter.

With an unforgiving schedule and a quarterback on constant injury watch, the Gators have a wide range of outcomes. Getting to 8-4 would be among the most positive paths in 2025.