Florida vs. Tennessee: 5 keys that will determine who wins
By Andrew Olson
Published:
After months and months of talk, it’s almost here: Florida at Tennessee. The winner gets a leg up in the SEC East race and ownership of the offseason conversation surrounding the rivalry.
Which team will get the win? Here’s five keys to victory:
1. Slowing down the ground game
Considering the potential unfavorable matchup for Tennessee (QB Joshua Dobbs vs. UF’s secondary) and the uncertainty on Florida’s end (backup QB Austin Appleby making his first start for the Gators), it seems highly unlikely that either team will plan to air it out on Saturday. That’s especially true when one considers that each offense’s strength is in its ground game. A deciding factor could be which opposing defense can slow down the other team’s rushers.
Gators players and coaches have talked all week about the challenge in containing Dobbs, who ran for 136 yards on 18 rushes against them a year ago. For Florida, Saturday’s run-stopping challenge not only includes Dobbs, but 6-foot-4, 240-pound RB Jalen Hurd. UF has shut down opponents on the ground so far, but it hasn’t faced ball-carriers like Dobbs and Hurd. If both crack the 100-yard mark again on Saturday as they did in 2015, it’s hard to see Florida leaving Knoxville with a victory without some magic – and Will Grier’s not walking through that door.
Going up against four ball-carriers, Tennessee’s biggest challenge will be to avoid getting worn down. With its committee approach at running back, the Gators will almost always have multiple ball-carriers with fresh legs waiting on the sideline. The Vols cannot allow Florida to grind out slow drives and control the clock. Tennessee has to get some early stops near the line of scrimmage and show the Gators that they’ll have to throw the ball to move the chains.
2. Finding balance
While both teams may lean on the run, neither will be successful without some form of a balanced offense.
No one is expecting Dobbs to go full gunslinger on the Gators, but even a few early pass completions could cause Florida to rethink its strategy of loading the box. If last year is any indication, when the Gators are focused on stopping the run, they become uncharacteristically vulnerable to the pass. When UF was overly concentrated on stopping Leonard Fournette, LSU found success by throwing deep.
Through the first three games, coach Jim McElwain looks like a genius for his running back-by-committee approach with Jordan Cronkrite, Lamical Perine, Jordan Scarlett and Mark Thompson all averaging 4.7 yards per carry or better. However, it’s doubtful that Florida’s ball-carriers (and offensive line) will find the same kind of success against Tennessee’s defense that they did against UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. The Gators will have to throw to keep the UT defense honest.
With a 1:1 career touchdown to interception ratio (19 of each), Appleby’s accuracy is a concern, especially on the road. If the Purdue transfer, who has a stronger arm than Luke Del Rio, could hit a few deep passes, it would make life on the Vols much more difficult. We know Antonio Callaway has the speed to get deep, but will the Gators trust Appleby to make any potentially risky throws?
3. Winning the red zone
One of the more interesting stat comparisons entering the game: Tennessee has scored a touchdown on 81 percent of its red zone trips (9-of-11), while Florida has only converted for six points 57 percent of the time (8-of-14). Even in fewer trips, the Vols have more red zone touchdowns than the Gators.
UF has the defense to stay in any low-scoring game, but it can’t leave too many points on the field and expect to come out of Neyland Stadium with the win. Especially concerning for Florida is its 40 percent fourth-down conversion rate (2-of-5) on the season (in all areas of the field, not just the red zone). If the game were to go to overtime, the Gators seem like they would be kicking a lot of field goals and trying for a turnover.
When it comes to defending the red zone, Tennessee has only given up four touchdowns in nine opponent visits inside the 20-yard line. Florida, on the other hand, has only allowed three red zone appearances so far, but two resulted in touchdowns. Each team’s defense has one zero-point red zone stop on its 2016 résumé.
4. Mixing it up
Last year, Tennessee executed trick plays perfectly. The box score from 2015 shows 165 passing yards for the Volunteers, with a split of 83 generated by Dobbs (10-of-17) and 82 credited to WR Jauan Jennings and RB Alvin Kamara. By being on the receiving end of Jennings’ pass, Dobbs was actually UT’s leading receiver in the game (58 yards).
It sure feels like Florida has some tricks up its sleeve this year. Coach Jim McElwain closed practice to the media all week, and he has also floated the possibility of freshmen quarterbacks Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask seeing the field on Saturday.
McElwain is likely just messing with Tennessee and the media, but there’s certainly a possibility that the Gators are looking to return the favor after being burned on trick plays in The Swamp by the Vols.
With neither teams likely to be all that confident in their passing game, it’s all the more incentive to draw up something that will get an eligible pass-catcher isolated from the rest of the defense (or special team’s unit).
5. Head games: Leads, panic and closing the deal
The way Florida players talk about the Tennessee game, it’s clear that they believe they’re going home with the win until the final score says otherwise. With two notable recent comebacks in the series, it’s safe to say UF is unlikely to go into panic mode unless it becomes a blowout.
On the other hand, one has to wonder how Tennessee will handle certain situations. If Florida were to jump out to an early lead, will the Vols be thinking, “Oh no, here we go again?” It seems almost impossible not to. The streak has dominated the conversation surrounding this game ever since the 2015 season wrapped up.
If the game is close, both teams will probably be confident in winning it in the fourth quarter. While it was an ugly win, UT got a mental boost from defeating Appalachian State in overtime. Florida has no reason to doubt its ability to orchestrate another late comeback.
The key for Tennessee will be to avoid a multi-score deficit. Getting out to an early lead would calm a lot of nerves and boost everyone’s confidence.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
