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Florida fans have plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving after a strong first season under Dan Mullen.
An 8-win season is more than some expected in Year 1, but there’s still plenty of reasons for the Gators to leave the Thanksgiving supper table hungry.
A win over Florida State on Saturday in Tallahassee is vital to maintain the program’s positive momentum and establish that Florida’s 5-year run of futility against the Seminoles is over. A Florida win would also represent a shifting power dynamic in the Sunshine state, sending a signal that Willie Taggart’s program is now looking up at Mullen’s, instead of the Gators hopelessly chasing Jimbo Fisher’s FSU.
A Florida win would end FSU’s season at 5-7 and allow FSU’s most bitter rival to snap the Noles’ national-best 36-season bowl and 41 consecutive winning seasons streaks in the process.
Finally, thanks to a new batch of College Football Playoff that has Florida slotted at No. 11, the Gators are all but assured an invitation to a New Year’s 6 bowl with a win Saturday.
Here are 10 bold predictions for the 63rd edition of Florida vs. Florida State.
1. Florida State will lead after a quarter
The Gators and Seminoles are two of the Power 5’s slowest starters.
The Seminoles have been outscored 66-35 in the first quarter this season, and in their six games against ranked opponents, they have scored only one touchdown.
The Gators haven’t been much better. Take away the 38 first-quarter points they’ve tallied against cupcakes Charleston Southern and Idaho and they’ve been outscored 55-23 in the first quarter. Since the Miss State game, Florida has been outscored 48-3 in the first quarter by Power 5 opponents.
Florida has played better football over the past five quarters, but so has FSU.
The thinking here is trends hold and FSU has a narrow lead after a quarter.
2. Florida State’s tempo will bother the Gators early
The Gators have a strong “success rate” on defense (20th nationally), meaning they are excellent at preventing offenses from having “successful plays,” which are defined essentially as plays that keep an offense on schedule (e.g. 4 yards on first down, etc.).
The two areas where Florida has struggled on defense are allowing explosive plays (78th nationally) and against tempo, where opposing offenses that snap the ball in fifteen seconds or less have averaged 5.8 yards-per-play.
Florida has struggled to line up quickly and properly against tempo, and while they adjusted late against South Carolina once the Gamecocks slowed down, the problem has continued into November. It’s hard to fit gaps in run defense and create disruptive press coverage when you can’t line up properly, and that’s been a season-long concern for Todd Grantham’s defense.
FSU likes to use tempo in Willie Taggart’s “Gulf Coast Offense” when they get first downs, and I’d expect them to do that with some success Saturday, especially early in the game.
3. Jabari Zuniga gets 3 sacks
The educated guess is Florida State’s much-maligned offensive line will double Jachai Polite, the Florida defensive end who is a consensus All-American candidate and leads the Gators in both sacks (8.5) and quarterback pressures (15.5). The tendency in November for Florida’s opponents has been to double team Polite at the line of scrimmage or move a tight end or running back to his side to help and chip.
The result has been more space for Cece Jefferson and Jabari Zuniga to operate. Zuniga is especially capable of going to work one on one, as the clip below demonstrates.
Jachai Polite is the DE who is gaining some steam, but don’t forget about Jabari Zuniga. Wins with a nice outside swim and finishes with a rip to sack Nick Fitzgerald. pic.twitter.com/2MaXVYjfER
— Gavino Borquez (@GavinoBorquez) October 1, 2018
FSU’s offensive line has shown some life the past two weeks, helping FSU compile almost 500 yards of offense against a very solid Boston College defense.
But Florida is the best defensive line the Noles have faced since at least the N.C. State game, and the Wolfpack lived in FSU’s backfield to the tune of 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. The Gators will get their chances to sack and pressure Francois Saturday, and Zuniga will lead the charge.
4. Brian Burns will finish with 2 sacks in his final home game at Florida State
The numbers on Burns, FSU’s junior defensive end and defensive captain, are absurd.
He has a video game like 15.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks, good for sixth in the NCAA.
His matchup against Jawaan Taylor is a scout’s dream: two first-round prospects going head to head.
The guess here is Burns versatility as a stand-up or hand-in-dirt guy and his explosiveness will give Taylor trouble, and he’ll make a big player or two.
He’s shown he can change a game this season, as he did with a huge fourth down sack with the Seminoles trailing 10-0 against Wake Forest, and he’ll need to have a big day to give FSU a chance to extend the streak over Florida to 6 on Saturday.
5. Cam Akers will finish with under 75 yards rushing
Perhaps no player better exemplifies the struggles of FSU’s offensive line this season than Cam Akers. An electric 5-star talent who is a nightmare when he gets to the second level, Akers has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing once this season.
The good news for FSU?
That performance came last week against a solid Boston College defense.
The bad news?
Against the three best defensive fronts he has played this year (Clemson, Miami, N.C. State), Akers has mustered only 82 yards on 33 carries.
He’ll do better Saturday against a Florida line that lacks a true 3-technique inside, but he won’t eclipse 75 yards rushing in a game for just the fifth time this season.
6. Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine will combine for over 125 yards rushing
For all FSU’s problems in 2018, the Noles have an outstanding defensive line and an excellent run defense.
Cynics have pointed to the Notre Dame game, where the Fighting Irish compiled 365 yards rushing as a counter to this claim, but statistical analysis demonstrates that was the exception, not the rule.
On the season, FSU’s defense has allowed a stingy 3.3 yards per-carry. Of Florida’s opponents, only Miss State is better, at 3.18, and Florida had very little success on the ground against the Bulldogs, gaining only 118 yards on 34 carries.
Florida will need to find creative ways to get the run game going Saturday (more later), but I do think they’ll have some success against FSU if they stick with the run game.
It’s strength on strength: Florida ranks 34th in S &P+ rushing offense and FSU ranks 35th in run defense, and the thinking here is eventually Florida will find some creases and room in the second half. Patience will be key.
7. Kadarius Toney will get 10 touches
Florida’s coaching staff admitted after their 35-31 comeback win over South Carolina that they hadn’t done a good enough job getting Kadarius Toney the football this season.
Toney averages a first down a touch (10.95 yards) and playing a defense that is among the best in America in limiting an opponent’s yards per play (FSU is 23rd in the country), I’d expect Florida to find creative ways to get Toney the football in the hope that they can hit some explosive plays.
8. C.J. Henderson gets an interception
C.J. Henderson has had an All-American type season, especially considering he has been defending the offense’s best receiver every week in the absence of All-SEC corner Marco Wilson, who was lost for the season on the first series against Kentucky.
Henderson’s interception of Jake Bentley sealed the Gators’ win over South Carolina, and in two seasons in Gainesville, the Miami product has shown himself to be a master at baiting quarterbacks into dangerous throws and closing the space.
Deondre Francois has not taken good care of the football this season, especially against ranked opponents, who have intercepted 8 passes in four Francois starts.
The combination of Henderson’s coverage skills and Florida’s pass rush should help the Gators force at least one turnover Saturday.
9. Feleipe Franks has 200 yards passing
Despite the criticism and reasonable questions about his ceiling, Franks has made strides as a redshirt sophomore as Dan Mullen’s quarterback.
His numbers in nearly every important category are easily better than the Francois, the more celebrated, more experienced junior he’ll play Saturday.
[table “” not found /]Franks has struggled, however, against high-caliber defenses, usurping 200 yards passing against a defense ranked in the top 50 only once this season (232 yards in loss to Kentucky).
The Seminoles rank 57th nationally in passing efficiency defense and 40th in S&P+ passing defense, making coverage the clear weakness in the defense. If Florida is to snap the skid, they’ll have to make a few plays in the passing game, and we think Franks is up to the task Saturday.
10. It’s a one-score game
The truth is this hasn’t been a competitive rivalry this decade, with FSU winning 7 of 8 games, mostly in lopsided fashion. Gators fans would love nothing more than to re-establish their supremacy in this rivalry with a rout of the Noles in Tallahassee.
Prior to Florida State’s huge comeback win over then No. 20 Boston College last weekend, I’d mostly bought into the hype that the Seminoles had given up on the season, the bowl streak and the win streak over Florida. After the Boston College game, it is clear there is still plenty of fight left in these Seminoles.
And make no mistake, with the winning season streak, bowl streak and win streak over Florida on the line this will be FSU’s Super Bowl.
Florida cruised past Idaho, but this is still a football team that earlier this month was hammered by Mizzou in The Swamp and fell behind South Carolina by 17 before rallying.
Dan Mullen is a solid rivalry game coach. As part of Urban Meyer’s staff from 2005-2008, he was 11-1 vs. Florida’s Big 3 of Tennessee, FSU and Georgia. At Miss. State, he was 5-4 in the Egg Bowl, joining Jackie Sherrill as one of the only longtime Bulldogs coaches to have a winning record against the Rebels. At Florida, he has blown the doors off Tennessee in Knoxville and lost to Georgia.
The longtime book on Mullen is that he is elite in games where he should win and not as good when his team is outmatched. This is a game based on metrics and the eyeball test that Florida should win. But the Seminoles are talented, prideful and protecting their home field and a host of program streaks.
All of that means this is a close football game, decided by a play or two in the fourth quarter.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
