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Florida and LSU may not be natural rivals geographically, but the current era of SEC scheduling with a permanent crossover opponent has made this annual meeting one of the conference’s more entertaining rivalries. As we’ve seen in recent years, Florida-LSU is often an “expect the unexpected” game.
This year, the 2 teams are as unpredictable as ever. Florida hosts LSU Saturday night in The Swamp (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) for an SEC showdown.
Florida vs. LSU preview
Entering Saturday, there are a lot of similarities between the Gators and Tigers. Both teams are in their first seasons with new coaches (Billy Napier, Brian Kelly). Each team has pulled off a surprising win (Florida over Utah, LSU over Mississippi State), dropped a “what could’ve been” game (Florida-Kentucky, LSU-FSU) and lost to Tennessee. Each team’s quarterback has also been up-and-down in the first 6 games.
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The biggest question for Florida is which version of Anthony Richardson will show up. Against Tennessee, Richardson threw for 453 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception while rushing for 62 yards and 2 TDs. Two weeks later, against Mizzou, Richardson had just 66 yards passing with a TD and INT, rushing for 45 yards with 32 yards coming on 1 key play. Richardson has yet to post a turnover-free game, even against FCS opponent Eastern Washington.
Xzavier Henderson leads Florida in catches with 23 for 210 yards and a touchdown. Justin Shorter has been UF’s most productive receiver with 15 catches for 334 yards. Richardson also likes to throw to Ricky Pearsall (14 catches, 254 yards, 2 TD).
LSU’s Jayden Daniels has similarly been a mixed bag statistically in his last 2 SEC outings. In the 40-13 loss to Tennessee, Daniels posted a solid personal box score of 32-of-45 passing for 300 yards (season-high), 1 touchdown and 1 interception. That was a noted improvement from his against Auburn (8-of-20 for 80 yards), a 21-17 LSU win.
Daniels finished with just 38 yards rushing against UT, but he has had his share of big games on the ground. In the season-opening loss to FSU, Daniels rushed 16 times for 114 yards. In LSU’s win over Mississippi State, Daniels rushed 16 times for 93 yards. For the year, he averages 4.72 yards per rush (No. 23 in the SEC).
Malik Nabers leads LSU pass-catchers in receptions (28) and receiving yards (370). Jaray Jenkins has 3 touchdown catches, the most among Tiger receivers. Kayshon Boutte has just 17 catches for 130 yards and a TD so far, but no one will be surprised when he finally has a 2022 breakout game.
Mobile quarterbacks have given the Gators fits this season. Utah’s Cam Rising had 7 carries for 91 yards in Week 1. Gerry Bohanon almost led USF to an upset victory with his 15 carries for 102 yards. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, better known for his passing prowess, finished as the Vols’ leading rusher with 13 carries for 112 yards.
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Whether the Gators can get their own ground game going will also be important Saturday. UF’s Montrell Johnson is averaging 8 yards per carry (46 rushes for 368 yards), which ranks No. 3 in the SEC. Florida freshman Trevor Etienne checks in at No. 4 with 6.80 yards per carry. Richardson, whose rushing usage has varied this season, is No. 9 among SEC ball carriers at 6.09 yards per carry. LSU’s rushing defense is in the top half of the SEC in terms of yards allowed per game (No. 6, 134.83) and per carry (No 5, 3.87).
When it comes to offense, the Tigers are No. 7 in the SEC in rushing yards per game (172.5). Florida’s rushing defense is in the lower half of the SEC, giving up 186 yards per game on the ground (No. 13) on 4.43 yards per carry (No. 11).
Florida vs. LSU prediction
Is there any outcome that would truly surprise fans this Saturday night?
Florida arguably got outplayed by USF and Mizzou, 2 of its 4 wins. And yet, the Gators also took Tennessee to the wire in a 1-score loss on Rocky Top.
LSU got off to a rough start against FSU and lost in heartbreaking fashion. The Tigers got dominated by Tennessee, but are the only team to have defeated No. 16 Mississippi State at this point in the season.
LSU won’t be fearing The Swamp, especially after winning the Shoe Game in 2020, but there’s still something to be said for home-field advantage, especially in a toss-up game. Saturday’s rivalry clash has toss-up written all over it.
Prediction: Florida 26, LSU 24
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
