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Week 4 win probability for every SEC team based on ESPN’s FPI
By Keith Farner
Published:
Will this year be remembered as the year of the Purdue transfer in the SEC? If LSU’s Danny Etling and Florida’s Austin Appleby have anything to say about it, it will.
Even entering Week 4, this has become a season of rotating and replacing quarterbacks for eight teams. That has to make figuring the probabilities of winning in a given week even more difficult, but that’s where ESPN’s Football Power Index enters.
Georgia (25.4 percent) at Ole Miss: The early start will quickly reveal which team has a hangover — or better recovered from — last week’s rollercoaster finishes. The Rebels have a chance to end the narrative of being a first-half team, while Georgia is looking to prove all those questions about the offensive line were premature or unnecessary. The Georgia defense leads the league in turnover margin (+3), while Ole Miss hasn’t started with three losses in its first four games since 2011.
Kent State at Alabama (99.3 percent): Nick Saban last faced his alma mater in 2011, a 48-7 victory. The Golden Flashes, picked to finish last in the MAC East, beat Monmouth last week for their first win after they lost to Penn State and North Carolina A&T. It may not be a stiff test, but Kent State defensive end Terence Waugh is second in America with five sacks, and he also has eight tackles for a loss. Kent State is 0-12 against the SEC.
Florida (29.0 percent) at Tennessee: If this rivalry needed any more juice, ESPN’s College GameDay decided to show up, too. Not only will this go a long way toward deciding the East, the biggest storyline is the Gators’ 11-game winning streak. It’s also a case of replacing key players. Florida is without quarterback Luke Del Rio, while Cam Sutton is out injured for Tennessee. Tennessee’s fumbling woes — 11 in three games — will not mix well against the strong Florida defense.
Mississippi State (92.4 percent) at UMass: The SEC tour continues for the Minutemen who after opening against Florida, will also play South Carolina in October. After the loss to Florida, they dropped a game against Boston College, but got their first win last week against Florida International. This is the Bulldogs’ first trip to the northeast since 1986 and a win over Syracuse. This series turned into a 2-for-1 only after Tulane bailed on the Bulldogs in favor of a series with Oklahoma. This game at Gillette Stadium also extends the Bulldogs’ streak of playing in NFL stadiums to seven years.
Delaware State at Missouri (99.8 percent): This is a name-the-score game because the Hornets, who were 1-10 last season, enter 0-2. It will be a test for the Tigers to move past last week’s heartache against Georgia, and also not look ahead to next week’s LSU game.
Vanderbilt (41.4 percent) at Western Kentucky: This must-win situation is manageable for the Commodores against a Hilltoppers team that lost to Alabama handily two weeks ago, but beat Rice and Miami (Ohio) as they hit at least 31 points in each game. It’s another chance for Derek Mason to improve his 1-10 road record at Vanderbilt.
LSU (50.5 percent) at Auburn: This matchup features coaches handling job security questions, but also having familiarity after key assistants swapped teams following last season. Both teams are also searching for a dependable quarterback. But it could be decided by what kind of game Arden Key has after he leads the SEC with five sacks. He’ll face an offensive line that allowed four sacks and 13 tackles for a loss last week.
South Carolina (62.2 percent) at Kentucky: Despite being on the road, the FPI reveals that the Gamecocks are slightly ahead of Kentucky in terms of developing a quarterback and using depth on defense. The Gamecocks have been burned by Kentucky running backs the past two years, but Will Muschamp was 4-0 against Kentucky while at Florida. They’re looking to break Kentucky’s two-game winning streak in the series.
Arkansas (25.1 percent) vs. Texas A&M at Arlington, Texas: This could be a sneaky good matchup. The primetime game revives an old Southwest Conference rivalry where the Aggies have won two straight in overtime. Both teams have signature wins this year, and this could be an early jockeying for the second-best team in the SEC behind Alabama.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
