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Week 11 win probability for every SEC team based on ESPN’s FPI
By Keith Farner
Published:
It’s a good week to play at home in the SEC.
Five of the seven home teams are expected to win handily, as the ESPN Football Power Index lists as having at least a 69.8 percent chance. Only Vanderbilt-Missouri is a relative tossup.
Here’s a look at what to expect in Week 11.
Mississippi State at Alabama (95.8 percent): The Crimson Tide used the big play in last year’s meeting with four touchdowns of at least 60 yards. It was their eighth consecutive in the series. The questions will be can the Bulldogs continue the momentum from the upset win over Texas A&M where they piled up nearly 600 yards of offense.
And will Alabama have any kind of hangover from the rough-and-tumble LSU game. Alabama didn’t have any drop last week in its first game without injured safety Eddie Jackson. That secondary could cause trouble for Nick Fitzgerald, who has a combined 24 touchdowns, and the Mississippi State offense.
South Carolina at Florida (85.4 percent): It’ll be difficult for any other storyline to emerge beyond the Will Muschamp reunion, but each quarterback offers plenty to discuss. Muschamp has been predictably guarded this week ahead of the reunion at the school he led to an 11-win season in his second campaign. But the 10-13 finish ultimately did him in.
Last year’s game had a frantic finish after the Gators led 17-0 in the fourth quarter, but the Gamecocks scored twice quickly to make it interesting. Linebacker Alex Anzalone and quarterback Luke Del Rio are among the injured players out for Florida. The ultimate test for freshman sensation Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks, though, will come on the road against one of the best defenses in the land.
Kentucky at Tennessee (88.9 percent): As Mark Stoops looks to make Kentucky bowl-eligible and clinch the program’s first winning SEC record since 1977, he’ll need to do it in a stadium that hasn’t been kind to the Wildcats. Kentucky is looking for its first victory in Neyland Stadium since 1984. The past two meetings in Knoxville have been particularly lopsided: 50-16 and 37-17.
Joshua Dobbs is just the kind of dual-threat quarterback that has hurt Kentucky. He has more than 850 total yards against the Wildcats in three games. It shouldn’t take long to test Kentucky’s temperature following the deflating Georgia loss and see if it’s capable of a bounce back.
Auburn (81.5 percent) at Georgia: The 120th meeting of the Deep South’s oldest rivalry arrives as Auburn is in contention to win the West, and Georgia looks for the first back-to-back SEC wins since last season. Offensive coordinator Jim Chaney’s move to the press box last week was viewed as a boost to the offense that also returned to its rushing roots behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.
Jacob Eason had one of his better games last week in the win at Kentucky as he found seven receivers and engineered another game-winning drive. Quarterback Sean White returns after being limited by a shoulder injury, but will Auburn keep John Franklin III as a wrinkle in the offense?
Vanderbilt at Missouri (53.4 percent): While Missouri’s bowl hopes are off the table, Vanderbilt needs to win two out of three of its remaining games, including this one, Ole Miss or Tennessee to qualify for a bowl berth. Both teams lost to South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky, but Vanderbilt beat Middle Tennessee State and Georgia.
Ralph Webb is the SEC’s No. 3 rusher at 100.1 yards per game with six TDs. But Vanderbilt overall ranks near the bottom in the SEC in most other offensive categories. Missouri, meanwhile, is second in total offense at 487 yards per game.
LSU (77.7 percent) at Arkansas: The Razorbacks are looking for consistency; after a 3-0 start, they’ve alternated wins and losses since. The last two, a lopsided loss to Auburn and a big win over Florida are the latest examples.
In this series, Arkansas is looking for a third consecutive win, something that hasn’t happened since the late 1920s (though they played just once from 1957-91).
Austin Allen and Rawleigh Williams are each in the top three in the league in passing and rushing and will challenge the Tigers. LSU’s offense will again have the task of adding wrinkles it couldn’t deliver against Alabama. The Tigers had one first down in the final seven possessions against the Crimson Tide after it had five first downs in its first five possessions.
Ole Miss at Texas A&M (69.8 percent): The Ole Miss quarterback situation was still undecided late this week following the season-ending injury to Chad Kelly. And the Aggies have a new quarterback, with Jake Hubenak replacing Trevor Knight.
Both teams are looking to regroup following difficult losses. But it’s been an issue for Ole Miss all season as it’s still looking for its first win against a West opponent, and only SEC win overall is against Georgia.
Last year’s meeting was the first time the Aggies were shutout in the first half under Kevin Sumlin. Ole Miss tight end Evan Engram will be a player to watch as he leads the SEC in receiving with 775 yards and seven TDs at 86 yards per game.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
