Friday Forecast 2025: SDS staff picks against the spread for Championship Week

Championship Week is officially here!

In the SEC, we have what is sure to be a thrilling rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs, both of whom should be in the Playoff field, win or lose.

But the biggest game of the day is in the Big Ten, where No. 1 Ohio State takes on No. 2 Indiana in Indianapolis. Will the Buckeyes continue to roll? Or can the Hoosiers pull off some home-state magic.

The Saturday Down South team is here to make some title game against the spread picks. Let’s dive in.

(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not reflect current odds.)

Championship Week College Football Picks

Here’s how the crew picked the 9 FBS conference championship games. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide to the best sports betting apps to score major sign-up bonuses at your shop of choice.

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Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (CUSA Championship) 

Spenser Davis: These teams met a few weeks ago and Jacksonville State only won by 9 despite a +4 edge in turnover differential. Typically with numbers like that, I’d back Kennesaw. But Jacksonville State also averaged over 8 yards per play in that game against the Owls. I think the Gamecocks should be favored at home. PICK: Jacksonville State +2.5 

Andy Olson: It’s hard to beat the same team twice in a matter of weeks. If Kennesaw State can avoid throwing 4 interceptions again, the Owls have a good chance to win Round 2. PICK: Kennesaw State +1.5 

Derek Peterson: Jacksonville State was up 32-13 in the fourth quarter of the first meeting. A second shot at a team isn’t worth that kind of point buffer. PICK: Jacksonville State +2.5 

Adam Spencer: I like Jacksonville State’s running game. That always plays well in December. I’ll go with the Gamecocks to get the job done. PICK: Jacksonville State +2.5 

Ethan Stone: KSU QB Amari Odom had a terrible outing against the Gamecocks last time around and threw 3 of the 6 interceptions he now has on the year. He’s turned it around since then and just threw 4 touchdowns against a good (G5) Liberty defense. I think he and the Owls will have a better outing with time to prepare. PICK: Kennesaw State -2.5 

Troy at James Madison (Sun Belt Championship) 

SD: James Madison is a great G5 team, but I’m not so sure I agree with this line being well over 3 touchdowns. Troy isn’t horrendous — especially on defense. The Trojans are 35th nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper. I think Troy can hang around. PICK: Troy +23.5  

AO: When the line’s this big, I’m naturally inclined to go with the underdog – even if clearly overmatched. PICK: Troy +23.5 

DP: I like the Dukes, who will still have their head coach for at least another game. There’s also still an outside shot James Madison challenges for the CFP. Troy’s offense is suspect. James Madison has advantages all over the field. PICK: James Madison -22.5 

AS: James Madison needs to make a statement to the Playoff committee and then root like heck for Duke to upset Virginia in the ACC. This set of Dukes at least handles its end of the deal. PICK: James Madison -23.5 

ES: I like James Madison to make a statement here. The Dukes have demolished the Sun Belt this season. PICK: James Madison -23 

North Texas at Tulane (American Championship) 

SD: The best unit in this game is North Texas’s passing attack. I’ll take the Mean Green to win by at least a field goal. PICK: North Texas -2.5 

AO: As the resident Gator, I think I’m obligated to roll with Jon Sumrall’s team. PICK: Tulane +2.5 

DP: Tulane gets it done at home. North Texas hasn’t been tested in quite the same way as the Green Wave have. I can’t get over the home loss to South Florida. PICK: Tulane +2.5 

AS: Both of these coaches are out the door after the season. I hear there’s going to be some wet weather in New Orleans on Friday night, which could slow down the North Texas offense just enough for Tulane to take advantage. PICK: Tulane +2.5 

ES: Tulane’s secondary has been a disaster this season and Drew Mestemaker averages more passing yards per game than any other quarterback in college football. Alternatively, even if it is against American-level competition, North Texas is top 10 in passing yards allowed per game (164 yards). The Mean Green can dominate this game through the air. North Texas has generally had a better rushing offense, too. PICK: North Texas -2.5 

UNLV at Boise State (Mountain West Championship) 

SD: UNLV’s offense is elite, but the Runnin’ Rebels can’t stop the run at all. Boise State is going to thrive with its ground game in this spot and the Broncos get to play at home on their blue turf. PICK: Boise State -4.5 

AO: UNLV was hanging close with Boise State in the first half before a disastrous second half. The Rebels have the Mountain West’s top scoring offense. I’ll go with Dan Mullen’s team to keep this close in a rematch. PICK: UNLV +4.5 

DP: To beat Boise State, a team has to be able to stop the run. UNLV has given us no evidence it can do that. The Rebels rank 126th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. That was a problem in the first meeting, when Boise ran 33 times for 294 yards, and it’ll be a problem again in the rematch. PICK: Boise State -3.5 

AS: I’m a little bit surprised Dan Mullen didn’t get more attention for some of these openings around the Power 4. He’s done good work with the Rebels, but yeah, this UNLV defense has no chance of stopping Boise State on the blue turf. PICK: Boise State -5 

ES: Derek nailed it. I don’t think UNLV will be able to stop the Broncos where and when it’s most important, and last time around BSU rushed for 294 yards with 3 touchdowns at 8.9 yards per carry. Yikes. PICK: Boise State -5 

BYU vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 Championship) 

SD: A double-digit spread in a P4 championship game with both teams at 11-1 may seem a bit disrespectful. But I think Texas Tech is just much, much better than every other team in the Big 12. BYU has dealt with distractions this week, too, as Kalani Sitake considered a move to Penn State. I think the potential for a Texas Tech blowout is high. PICK: Texas Tech -12.5 

AO: I’m riding with the loser in a rematch again here. It would be hard for BYU to play that poorly again. PICK: BYU +12.5 

DP: A ton went wrong for BYU when it traveled south to Lubbock earlier this season, and yet the Cougars fought. Texas Tech had 7 red zone trips and only scored 2 touchdowns. Both of these defenses are excellent. If BYU doesn’t blow its foot off again, it should be able to keep things closer than 13.5. PICK: BYU +13.5 

AS: Texas Tech is playing for a first-round bye in the Playoff. The Red Raiders are undefeated when Behren Morton plays. I’m keeping this one simple. PICK: Texas Tech -11.5 

ES: I just don’t see a world where BYU and HC Kalani Sitake struggle as badly as they did in the first matchup between these two. The spread makes it tough to go with the Red Raiders, who I ultimately think will win the game. PICK: BYU +13 

Miami vs. Western Michigan (MAC Championship) 

SD: I’m in Rome, it’s 1:30 a.m. and my wife may be considering divorce. I leave analysis of Miami-Western Michigan to my able colleagues. PICK: Miami +2 

AO: My pick is, once again, the loser of Round 1 to cover the spread. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. PICK: Western Michigan -1.5 

DP: Go RedHawks. PICK: Miami +2.5 

AS: Dequan Finn isn’t with Miami (OH) this time around. I’ll take Western Michigan here. PICK: Western Michigan -1.5 

ES: Miami took the first one in this series this season and it’s tough to beat the same team twice. I’ll roll with the Broncos. PICK: Western Michigan -1.5

Georgia vs. Alabama (SEC Championship) 

SD: I really, really don’t like that Georgia will be without starting center Drew Bobo. Kalen DeBoer has been awesome in big games like this — including against this same Georgia team earlier this season. But I just don’t trust this Alabama offense. Ty Simpson hasn’t looked right in a few weeks. I think Georgia gets a big turnover or 2 to flip this game. PICK: Georgia -2.5 

AO: Alabama is absolutely in Georgia’s head, and you can’t convince me otherwise. Under these unique postseason circumstances, though, I don’t expect to see the Bulldogs tighten up at the sight of the Crimson Tide. UGA should be loose playing another game in Mercedes-Benz Stadium and, more importantly, much better prepared to defend against the Bama passing attack. PICK: Georgia -2.5 

DP: Kirby Smart is going to break the Alabama funk sooner or later. PICK: Georgia -2.5 

AS: I guess I’m the outlier here. I like Alabama to at least cover in this spot. This is assuming, of course, that the Tide remember that Ryan Williams exists. Either way, give me Alabama to make this a close contest. PICK: Alabama +2.5 

ES: Georgia has been the more consistent team this season. At the same time, the Bulldogs have been better running the ball. In a coin flip scenario, there’s more to like with the Bulldogs here. PICK: Georgia -2.5 

Indiana vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Championship) 

SD: I’m in on the Hoosiers. I think they keep this close. PICK: Indiana +4.5 

AO: I’m rolling with the Ohio State defense until an opponent shows me otherwise. PICK: Ohio State -3.5 

DP: Indiana is arguably more battle-tested. Ohio State is just better. PICK: Ohio State -5.5 

AS: Ohio State is the best team in the country. Caleb Downs is incredible. The defense is elite. The offense has a Heisman contender at QB. Give me the Buckeyes to win comfortably. PICK: Ohio State -3.5 

ES: Like a good chunk of America, I’ll be rooting for the Hoosiers in this one. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll actually do it, deep down. The Buckeyes are playing on a different level from every other team in college football right now, and that defense has befuddled opposing quarterbacks all year. I’m not saying Mendoza will crash and burn, but it won’t be as easy as some past games have been for the Heisman candidate. PICK: Ohio State -4 

Duke vs. Virginia (ACC Championship) 

SD: Virginia should be favored by over a touchdown in my opinion. Duke’s defense has been atrocious for weeks and the Cavaliers have a veteran quarterback. Just a few weeks ago, Virginia racked up 7 yards per play against the Blue Devils. Duke was fortunate Virginia only scored 34 points in that game for a 17-point win. PICK: Virginia -3.5  

AO: I find great joy in seeing Manny Diaz make the ACC Championship Game before Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes. I’m all for some chaos in the College Football Playoff picture, but, unfortunately, I think the party’s over for Duke. PICK: Virginia -3.5 

DP: In the first meeting between these teams, Duke couldn’t get Virginia off the field and the Cavs went into the fourth quarter leading 31-3. Even if Duke is better the second time around, Virginia is the play. The Blue Devils are streaky, but their inability to win in late-downs situations is a vulnerability Virginia can take advantage of. PICK: Virginia -3.5 

AS: Duke winning would be a fun chaos scenario. I just don’t see that happening, unfortunately. Give me the Cavs. PICK: Virginia -3.5 

ES: This game is disgraceful, as is the ACC. I should probably say something nice, and Darian Mensah makes that easy. He’s thrown for a lot of yards and has faced this Cavs defense before, which makes me think he won’t struggle twice. I kind of expect the defense to be lacking on both sides in this one, too. PICK: Duke +4