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The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after nine weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 51-36-3
- Ethan Stone: 45-42-3
- Paul Harvey: 44-43-3
- Derek Peterson: 42-45-3
Let’s dive in.
No. 7 Texas (-4) vs. No. 23 Kansas State
Spenser Davis: Kansas State just hasn’t been the same team on the road this year as it has been at home. Even with Maalik Murphy in for Quinn Ewers, I think Texas can win this one by a touchdown. PICK: Texas
Paul Harvey: Kansas State really hasn’t been tested since a loss to Oklahoma State, but that says more about the competition than it does the Wildcats. No Quinn Ewers isn’t ideal, but Jonathon Brooks is a difference-maker at RB. Provided Maalik Murphy doesn’t turn the ball over extensively, the Longhorns should be fine at home. PICK: Texas
Derek Peterson: It’s horns down, but Texas wins by a touchdown. PICK: Texas
Ethan Stone: Kansas State is playing great football this year, and as much as Mizzou fans want the Wildcats to keep winning, I’m going to roll with the Longhorns here. PICK: Texas
Rutgers vs. No. 1 Ohio State (-18.5)
SD: This is a bad matchup for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights can’t stop the run, and Ohio State finally has a healthy TreVeyon Henderson. Rutgers’ strength on offense is its running game, but the Buckeyes are in the 90th percentile nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Ohio State should be able to separate from Rutgers in this matchup. PICK: Ohio State
PH: This line is lower than a traditional Ohio State vs. Rutgers matchup due to the six wins for the Scarlet Knights and the offensive struggles of Ohio State. However, I don’t see a path for Rutgers to score enough to keep this from developing into a blowout. The Buckeyes will roll as the defense gets after QB Gavin Wimsatt. PICK: Ohio State
DP: When the talent gulf is like this, you need explosive plays to be the leveler. Rutgers just doesn’t generate a ton of explosives. So, it’s hard to trust they’ll be able to consistently move the ball enough to keep pace with the Buckeyes. That being said, Rutgers has been outstanding at limiting those chunk plays on the other side. (As has Ohio State.) I think this could be a lower-scoring game that’s still a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State
ES: I’ve liked Rutgers all year. It’s the most fun the Scarlet Knights have been since the last 2000s. But Gavin Wimsatt and Co. Still aren’t enough to look competent against the Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State
No. 10 Ole Miss (-3) vs. Texas A&M
SD: On a down-to-down basis, Texas A&M’s defense has been significantly better than Ole Miss’ offense this season. But Ole Miss has shown the ability to hit big plays consistently, which is the one area where the Aggies have fallen short defensively this season. I don’t think A&M’s offense will be able to keep up with Ole Miss in Oxford. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: I am generally wary of road favorites in the SEC, especially with such a massive game looming next week for Ole Miss. However, I’m simply not sold on Jimbo Fisher’s program and the line is low enough to ride with Ole Miss here. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Another game where explosives are going to be a big part of it. Ole Miss aggressively seeks out chunk plays and I don’t trust the Aggie defense — which has produced only seven takeaways this season — to be able to turn a couple of those shot plays in their favor. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Texas A&M’s road woes will continue. The Aggies are a different team away from Kyle Field, and even on a neutral field, I think the Rebels win by a touchdown or 2. PICK: Ole Miss
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Clemson vs. No. 15 Notre Dame (-3)
SD: The vibes are strongly in favor of Notre Dame in this one. But I prefer to rely on what the numbers say. The advanced stats suggest these teams are very evenly matched, but Notre Dame has been much more fortunate in the turnover department than Clemson has been. I’ll bank on that flipping this weekend in Death Valley and take the points. PICK: Clemson
PH: The key for me is a Notre Dame defense going against a Clemson offense that has been inconsistent all season and especially in the last 3 games. I’m not worried about Sam Hartman in a road environment, and the Irish defense will travel. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: Notre Dame has 18 takeaways on the season, tied for the third-most in the country. Clemson has 15 giveaways. The Fighting Irish have been right where you’d expect them to be in the turnover department (18 expected, 18 actual) while Clemson can’t run 5 yards without putting the football in the dirt. I think this becomes another offensive slopfest for Clemson with Notre Dame tightening the screws. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: Clemson is 4-4, its head coach spends his time roasting youths from Spartanburg and the Tigers face a great Notre Dame squad with low points. This is not a serious football team we’re dealing with. Irish by a few touchdowns. PICK: Notre Dame
No. 25 Air Force (-18.5) vs. Army
SD: Look, this is a complete mismatch in favor of Air Force. But the total for this game is 32 points. I cannot in good conscience bet on a team to win by nearly three touchdowns with a total that low. PICK: Army
PH: This is a home game for Air Force against an Army team that has been losing in brutal fashion throughout a 5-game losing streak. The only point to consider is Navy kept things close… but I just don’t see that in the cards for the Black Knights. PICK: Air Force
DP: Army has lost five straight games. It was shut out in two of those. This is just not a great football team. But I agree with Spenser there may not be enough points to go around for Air Force to win that big. PICK: Army
ES: Air Force is way too much fun for 2-6 Army to make this interesting. Army is more accustomed to the triple option, but I’m not sure how much that will mean in this case since it’s the same situation for the Falcons. Still gotta go out there and stop it, Army. PICK: Air Force
No. 2 Georgia (-15.5) vs. No. 12 Missouri
SD: I think Mizzou is good, but the Tigers don’t really have any matchup advantages here. They’re likely to get an engaged, hungry Georgia team on Saturday. I don’t think Mizzou will be able to keep up. PICK: Georgia
PH: I know this is insanity with Georgia slowly turning back into its dominant, SEC-demolishing form. But, maybe Eli Drinkwitz learned just enough last season after nearly completing the upset at home. Playing in Athens is a different animal, but let’s ride with the Tigers in a line that feels a bit too high even if the Bulldogs win outright. PICK: Mizzou
DP: Yeah, I’m rolling with Georgia here. The Bulldogs are starting to find their groove and the College Football Playoff selection committee just gave them a reason to care about putting the hammer down on teams. PICK: Georgia
ES: Mizzou is in a different tier compared to Kentucky and Florida. This line makes it impossible for me to pick the Bulldogs, even if it’s well within the realm of possibility that Georgia makes this another one-sided affair. The Tigers are the toughest team Georgia has faced yet, but Kirby Smart’s teams always show up, and I don’t think they’ll drop at Sanford. I’ll take Georgia in a close one, but Mizzou to cover. PICK: Mizzou
No. 22 Oklahoma State vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (-6)
SD: This line has continued to move in Oklahoma’s direction as the week has gone on. The key here will be whether or not Oklahoma can slow down Ollie Gordon. I think it can, so I’m comfortable taking OU by anything under a touchdown. PICK: Oklahoma
PH: A top-25 matchup in the final Big 12 version of Bedlam? This one is screaming for something crazy to happen, and I think something crazy will happen. I just think it’s going to be a blowout for the Sooners despite playing on the road. PICK: Oklahoma
DP: Oklahoma State, long the battered little brother in this series, has a chance — at home, mind you — to beat Oklahoma in the last meeting. Bedlam is always electric, but this environment could be a special one. Oklahoma has an average run defense that has been gashed a few times this season and Ollie Gordon II is an outstanding tailback. There’s a Heisman conversation to be had with him, and it’ll get louder if he has a moment against the Sooners. PICK: Oklahoma State
ES: Bedlam always delivers. It’s a bit of an unconventional pick, but it’s my favorite rivalry game in college football. I’m certain this one will be close, which makes me lean OK State for the points. PICK: Oklahoma State
No. 20 USC vs. No. 5 Washington (-3)
SD: Both of these offenses are great, but Washington’s is better. Both of these defenses are bad, but Washington’s is better. I think we’re getting pretty close to quit-watch with USC’s defense, in particular. PICK: Washington
PH: Caleb Williams talked this week about CFP hopes still being realistic for the Trojans. As of now, that’s plausible. Following another loss on Saturday, it won’t be. PICK: Washington
DP: The USC offensive line has been bad this year, which has hampered the offense a bit more than expected. Caleb Williams is still Caleb Williams, but the overwhelming pressure has started taking a toll. On the other side, a matchup between Ryan Grubb and Alex Grinch has the potential to get very, very ugly. USC’s main defensive issues are fundamental. Grubb and Michael Penix Jr. will have that group running in circles. PICK: Washington
ES: USC is not a serious football team. Washington has struggled lately, but I see no way the Trojans pull a 180 and make this interesting. PICK: Washington
No. 8 Alabama (-3) vs. No. 14 LSU
SD: I don’t really buy LSU’s defensive progress over the past couple of weeks vs. Auburn and Army. I think the Tide are capable of testing LSU through the air and on the ground. The Tigers haven’t faced a defense like Alabama’s yet, either. PICK Alabama
PH: There’s no way I’m picking against Nick Saban in this game, provided Joe Burrow doesn’t show up on the other sideline. If I’m wrong, so be it. PICK: Alabama
DP: Roll Tide. PICK: Alabama
ES: Alabama has played so well at home in the second half of games this season. I see this one starting similarly to how the Tide’s game against Tennessee went. I’ll trust LSU to keep it closer, but give me the Tide by a touchdown. PICK: Alabama
Arizona vs. No. 19 UCLA (-3)
SD: Arizona has an elite offense and UCLA has an elite defense. The other units are mediocre. I don’t feel great about this, but I’m betting on the Bruins’ defense to have a dominant performance on the road. PICK: UCLA
PH: For those that haven’t been paying attention out west, Arizona is a legit team. That’s even more true at home. I’m not sure if they can pull off another stunner outright, but I’ll roll with the Wildcats. PICK: Arizona
DP: I’m still not sold on Ethan Garbers as the answer at quarterback, but the Bruins’ defense is just ferocious. On the road, UCLA can’t afford quick-change possessions that put the defense in compromising positions and ignite the Arizona crowd. PICK: UCLA
ES: Arizona has impressed me lately. The Wildcats have kept games close this year, and they knocked off Oregon State recently. I’ll roll with the Wildcats. PICK: Arizona
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
