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The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 5:
- Paul: 26–23–1
- Derek: 25–24–1
- Ethan: 23–26–1
- Spenser: 19–30–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon (-24)
Spenser Davis: Oregon is a great team, but I think this is too many points. The Ducks have still not played their best game offensively this season and they struggled at times to dominate UCLA in Week 5. Not to mention that this is a massive lookahead spot for Oregon with Ohio State coming to town next weekend. I’ll take the points here. PICK: Michigan State
Paul Harvey: Michigan State has taken some major strides under Jonathan Smith, though improvements from the final years of the Mel Tucker era did not take much effort. However, turnovers continue to plague the Spartans within games, and that’s a major problem on the road in Autzen. Oregon has been more efficient since a rocky start, and a couple of costly turnovers should lead to the Ducks hitting the big number. PICK: Oregon
Derek Peterson: The total in this game is currently hovering in the low 50s, if that provides any indication of what kind of contest we’re going to get Friday night. I think Oregon can play its best game of the season against a coach it has some familiarity with. There’s a natural hesitancy taking such a big number against this total but I just don’t think Michigan State is in a good spot offensively right now. Against FBS opponents this season, the Spartans are averaging 17.3 points a game with an adjusted EPA per play that ranks 125th out of 134 teams. Only 2 teams entered Week 6 with more turnovers. And now they make a cross-country trip to face a team with athletes all over the defense on a short week. PICK: Oregon
Ethan Stone: I’m not sure the Spartans are going to get hammered again after last week against Ohio State. By no means am I saying Oregon is on upset alert here, but I think the Spartans will cover the spread. PICK: Michigan State
No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-2.5)
SD: Missouri’s offense has not been what we thought it would be this season, but I think the Tigers could have a big weekend in College Station. There’s a relatively easy fix: get Luther Burden involved more. He has just 19 catches through Missouri’s first 5 games of the year. Given A&M’s complete inability to throw the ball this season, I think the wrong team may be favored here. PICK: Missouri
PH: Strangely enough, I would probably feel differently about things if Mizzou was a road favorite in this one. Simply put, I am not a believer in Texas A&M in any way, shape or form, and I think Eli Drinkwitz’s biggest issue is getting his Tigers ready for games they’re a clear favorite in. He’ll use this line as a motivator, and Mizzou will be ready. PICK: Missouri
DP: Missouri has won 7 straight games that were decided by 8 points or less. While generating explosives on offense has been a concern, the lack of those plays hasn’t hampered the efficiency. Missouri is fourth nationally in net success rate. A&M’s leaky defense provides an opportunity to dial up and actually hit some big plays. PICK: Missouri
ES: Mizzou has been a little disappointing this season, at least in my eyes. They danced with Boston College and Vanderbilt – especially the latter – and have yet to face a team as physical as the Aggies. They also haven’t faced a crowd like Kyle Field has to offer yet this year. I think the offensive struggles are finally going to catch up to the Tigers. PICK: Texas A&M
Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State (-20)
SD: The market has been slow to adjust to what Iowa is in 2024: better on offense, worse on defense. I’m not sure that’s going to translate into a good result against Ohio State. The Hawkeyes have been leaking explosive plays on defense, particularly in the passing game. Good luck containing the trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. PICK: Ohio State
PH: Don’t laugh, but Iowa is surprisingly balanced this season. In fact, if you’re looking for an issue within the Hawkeyes, it’s mostly on the defensive side of the ball and their ability to give up explosive passing plays. I have some concerns with this line because I think Chip Kelly probably goes conservative at times with a lead, but I think he’ll find a couple of explosive plays to bust this open just enough. PICK: Ohio State
DP: Ohio State has been criticized for taking a month off to start the season. (And rightfully so, to be clear.) I like the Buckeyes to make a statement at home against an Iowa team that doesn’t have the necessary pieces to cover all 3 of Smith, Egbuka, and Tate. PICL: Ohio State
ES: Ohio State’s offense is just really good, and Iowa’s defense is really missing Cooper DeJean. That’s not a good combination. The Buckeyes might make me sweat on this one, but I think they can win by 3 touchdowns. PICK Ohio State
Related: Don’t miss out on the action this college football season. Check out Saturday Down South’s breakdown of all the best apps to bet on sports in the market in 2024!
Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (-24)
SD: I was on Auburn last week and would have easily covered the number if not for a late Payton Thorne pick-6. I’m tempted to go back to the well and bet on positive regression for Auburn’s rotten turnover luck, but I’m going with Georgia. I think Kirby Smart will have his team pissed off and ready to go for this rivalry game a week after losing to Alabama. PICK: Georgia
PH: Georgia after a loss might be the best team in America. But I think we do need to dig past the emotional aspect of the game vs. Alabama. Was it simply desperation and a “nothing to lose” mindset that unlocked the second-half performance of the Bulldogs? If Kirby Smart has his assistants calling the game like that for a full 60 minutes, Auburn is in trouble – and he just might do it to make a point to his players. But this is still a rivalry game, and 24 points is super rich. PICK: Auburn
DP: About the only thing Auburn has done well this season is shoot its own foot, but I haven’t been impressed at all with Georgia since the Clemson game. I get weird vibes from Carson Beck and the pass game and if Auburn can just stick to a run-first approach and not go full Auburn, there’s a path to a respectable final scoreline. The Tigers have been unlucky in the turnover department, relative to their expected value through 5. At some point, the pendulum has to swing the other way. This is one of those where 9 times out of 10, you look foolish. I’ll gamble on the 10th here. PICK: Auburn
ES: I’ve seen this one before. Auburn is imploding and can’t quite figure out how to protect the football. Georgia is pissed off. The Tigers have to limp their way to Athens after losing to every team of substance they’ve faced yet – despite a good amount of talent. If Georgia had won last week I’d take Auburn to cover, but here I say the Bulldogs win by 30-plus. PICK: Georgia
No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina
SD: I love Ole Miss off of a loss in this spot. I know South Carolina’s scoring outputs this year have been decent, but I think it’s mostly been fool’s gold. Ole Miss ran into an elite Kentucky defense last week, and I don’t think the Gamecocks are quite at that level. I’ll lay the points with the Rebels. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: Ole Miss fell victim to Kentucky’s ugly playing style in Week 5, unable to come up with the close win that Georgia did when facing the Wildcats. It feels like an aberration, and a game against South Carolina looks like the perfect recipe for Lane Kiffin to get his group to respond. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: It has been interesting (to say the least) watching national folks rush to kick dirt on Lane Kiffin in the wake of the Kentucky loss. Seems to me a bit like confirmation bias more than anything. Ole Miss was wasteful in the first game all season where its offensive potential was capped. I don’t think South Carolina has quite the same defense, and I don’t think Ole Miss will come into the game with another subpar offensive gameplan. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: I don’t want to believe Ole Miss is bad, I think Kentucky is just better than a lot of folks (including myself) gave them credit for. South Carolina beat the Wildcats by 25 and they’re desperate for a ranked win after falling just short to LSU 3 weeks ago. I don’t know if they’ll win, but I really think the Gamecocks can keep things within one possession. PICK: South Carolina
No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State
SD: Clemson has been absolutely on fire since its season-opening loss to Georgia. The Tigers haven’t faced an elite defense during that span, but that’s not going to change this weekend. There are other tests that Cade Klubnik will have to pass, but he’s proven more than capable of beating up on inferior opposition this year – and that certainly includes this FSU team. Brock Glenn is set to get the start this week, but I can’t imagine Clemson’s defensive coaching staff is losing any sleep over that. To start his college career, Glenn has completed just 19-of-55 passes (34.5%) and is averaging just 4.5 yards per attempt. No issues laying 2 scores and the hook with Clemson. PICK: Clemson
PH: FSU might be in a better spot without DJU under center. But I have zero confidence that there’s any level of fight left in the Seminoles. On the flip side, Clemson has pulled out of its season-opening nosedive against Georgia. Dabo Swinney’s group can play for the ACC title, and that would mean a Playoff spot. Game on for Clemson. PICK: Clemson
DP: Clemson is bulldozing bad teams. Florida State is coming off a 42-16 beatdown by SMU. PICK: Clemson
ES: Clemson is trending up while Florida State is rocketing toward the sea floor. The Seminoles are the definition of cooked right now. I think they’ll give just about everything they have in this one and it could be interesting early, but Clemson’s defense should shut down Glenn just as other teams have shut down DJU. PICK: Clemson
No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas
SD: Arkansas has been a pretty volatile team this year, but I’m starting to think the Razorbacks just aren’t very good. They didn’t do much to stop Auburn besides pick the ball off from Hank Brown. They couldn’t stop UAB or Oklahoma State either. Taylen Green is a fun player, but I don’t think he’s been consistent enough to count on the Hogs to keep this game close. PICK: Tennessee
PH: Tennessee has a golden opportunity awaiting the Vols down the road if they can stay focused early in October. Hopefully, Josh Heupel spent the bye week wisely because Arkansas is likely ruminating on some missed opportunities against other ranked opponents. The problem for the Razorbacks? Tennessee is light years advanced offensively than A&M and Oklahoma State. PICK: Tennessee
DP: I like the Vols quite a bit here. The defense can take away Taylen Green’s legs similar to Texas A&M a week ago, and the athleticism in the front 7 will be a test the Arkansas offense hasn’t yet faced all season. Tennessee could have run away from Oklahoma in Norman, but I got the sense Josh Heupel didn’t feel he needed to. Maybe he respects the Arkansas offense a bit more. PICK: Tennessee
ES: Tennessee fans are very nervous for this game, and I can see why. Arkansas’ offense has been very good at times, and it runs through Ja’Quinden Jackson. If he and QB Taylen Green can find their best game of the year, at home after just missing out on some ranked wins, Tennessee could be in trouble. Me? I don’t buy it. Green’s best game this year came against a bad OK State defense. Tennessee’s unit is elite – especially the linebackers and D-line. Green is going to be running for his life, but the Vols can contain him where others could not. PICK: Tennessee
No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-2.5)
SD: What would this line be if Washington had won last week? Or if Michigan had lost? It’s a fair question, given that the Huskies dramatically outplayed Rutgers on a down-to-down basis and the Wolverines won a toss-up game against Minnesota. I think Washington bettors are getting a fantastic price in this national championship game rematch. PICK: Washington
PH: Don’t adjust your screens, Washington is indeed a home favorite against the No. 10 team in the country. I think that’s the right call here. Michigan has been playing with fire in close games with a QB fit for the triple option. Also, Michigan’s pass defense is among the worst in the Big Ten right now, so watch for Will Rogers to light this one up. PICK: Washington
DP: The Wolverines make me uncomfortable, but Washington is in a weird spot right now. They dominated Rutgers in ways that matter but short-circuited every single time they crossed the 40. UW has a bad red zone offense, and I wonder about the physicality component in this game. PICK: Michigan
ES: Michigan is very suspect. Will Rogers could be in for a big game, and I find it tough to believe Michigan will be able to move the ball at a high level being as one-dimensional as Washington could make them Saturday. Washington, like Minnesota, has had a very effective secondary this year – one that will give them fits similar to last week. This being at home, I’ll give the Huskies the edge this time around. PICK: Washington
No. 11 USC (-8.5) at Minnesota
SD: I was on Minnesota a couple weeks ago in the Iowa game and got burned. I just don’t think the Golden Gophers are very good. USC has been inconsistent, but I’ve seen enough growth defensively to believe that USC can cover this number on the road. PICK: USC
PH: Minnesota’s surprising push in the fourth quarter against Michigan overshadowed a number of issues. Mainly, the defense and special teams greatly aided the comeback by the Gophers. On the flip side, USC has shown it can claw back into games and simply overwhelm opponents despite falling behind early. I don’t like that this line is slightly over a touchdown on the road, but I can’t pick Minnesota. PICK: USC
DP: USC has been a second-half team this season, which is to say it looks like Lincoln Riley has found a new lease on life with this remade coaching staff. How much has changed? This game, perhaps more than the Michigan contest, will be illustrative. Riley has been awful against the spread as a road favorite throughout his career, and Minnesota has a combination to make the Trojans uncomfortable — a no-fly zone secondary with 8 picks against 1 touchdown allowed all year, and the makings of a good run game. PICK: Minnesota
ES: We’ll learn whether Minnesota’s secondary is anything to write home about in this one. Miller Moss is the best quarterback they’ve faced so far, and the Trojans’ defense is among the best they’ve played thus far. I think USC outlasts a valiant effort and wins by 10-14. PICK: USC
No. 8 Miami (-10.5) at Cal
SD: This is a bad matchup for Cal. The Golden Bears simply do not have the offensive line to block the Hurricanes up front. Last week’s Miami-Virginia Tech game wouldn’t have been as close as it was if not for a trio of Cam Ward turnovers. If Ward can take better care of the ball this week, this game shouldn’t be close. PICK: Miami
PH: My head says go with Cal, simply for the travel aspect in play and the issues that can pose for any team. But my heart says go with Miami because the Hurricanes will have the best player on the field and arguably the best QB in the country with Cam Ward. I’ll go with the legitimate Heisman candidate. PICK: Miami
DP: Last week was probably the worst-case result for Cal. Miami got its bad game out of its system. I don’t think the Hurricanes lay 2 eggs in a row. Miami is really good. PICK: Miami
ES: I understand Cal is being lifted up here, but I just don’t see it. Miami’s defense is by far the most physical the Golden Bears have seen thus far, and I don’t see how they’re supposed to score consistently in this one. GameDay magic might keep the Bears in this one early, but I see the Hurricanes running away with this one. PICK: Miami
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
