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Friedlander: Miami’s upset loss will shake up the Playoff rankings, but not the ACC title race. At least not yet
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Get those tiebreaking charts back out. Seems we might need them to determine which 2 teams play for the ACC championship, after all.
Things aren’t going to get as complicated as they might have had the chaos scenario of 3 teams with undefeated conference records panned out. But after Miami’s upset loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday, at least a little intrigue has entered back into the picture for the final 3 weeks of the regular season.
Of those 3 teams that were tied atop the league standings just 2 weeks ago, only 1 remains.
Raise your hand if you had SMU as the only team still without a conference loss after Week 11 on your bingo card.
If you did, you’re either a Mustangs fan or you’re fibbing.
Because despite winning the American Athletic Conference a year ago, Rhett Lashlee’s team was only picked to finish seventh in its debut ACC season.
But here we are.
Thanks to an offense averaging 40 points per game, a defense surrendering only a shade under 22 and an incredible escape act a couple of games ago against Duke, SMU can earn its trip to Charlotte on Dec. 7 by winning its remaining games against Boston College, Virginia and Cal. Teams with a combined 5 ACC wins between them.
Of course, Miami had that same opportunity. With an equally manageable schedule. But the fourth-ranked Hurricanes finally put themselves into a hole from which even Cam Ward couldn’t dig them out in a 28-23 loss we should have seen coming from a mile away.
All the warning signs were there.
Between the double-digit comebacks, the banged-up defense that had given up 31 or more points in 4 of its previous 5 games and coach Mario Cristobal’s propensity for making head-scratching game management decisions, Saturday’s result was almost inevitable. It was just a matter of where, when and how it would happen.
And yet, while Miami’s setback will contribute to what promises to be a significant shakeup in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, its impact on the ACC title chase is comparatively minor.
The only real change is that the Hurricanes have used their get-out-of-jail-free card. Win the final 2 games against Wake Forest and at Syracuse and they’re still on track to play SMU for the championship and the league’s automatic Playoff berth thanks to those previously mentioned tie-breaking scenarios.
There are still too many games to play and too many things that can and probably will happen to take the time to spell all the potential outcomes out here.
This much, however, is certain:
Despite showing some signs of life in the second half to win at Virginia Tech on Saturday, Clemson needs a Hail Mary to get into the championship game.
And not the kind that can be reviewed and overturned by the guys in the ACC Control Room.
Because of last week’s loss to Louisville – a team both Miami and SMU have beaten – the only way Dabo Swinney’s Tigers can get to Bank of America Stadium on Dec. 7 without buying a ticket is if Miami loses again or SMU drops 2 of its last 3.
Pittsburgh also had a slim shot at sneaking into the championship game for the second time in four years coming into the day Saturday. But after starting the season with 7 straight wins, the 18th-ranked Panthers saw those hopes fade with a 24-19 loss to Virginia.
It’s a loss tinged with a hint of controversy after officials awarded the Cavaliers a do-over on a play in which Pitt’s defense appeared to get a key fourth down stop with about 5 minutes remaining. The Panthers trailed by 2 at the time and would only need to have kicked a field goal to go ahead.
But because it was ruled that the officials weren’t in place at the time UVa snapped the ball, the Cavaliers were given a second chance at converting. They did and after running the clock down to the 2-minute timeout, kicked a field goal and hung on for the victory that left just 3 teams in the conference title chase.
No matter how it all plays out, it’s hard to see any pathway for the ACC to end up with more than just its champion in the expanded 12-team Playoff bracket. And there’s still no guarantee that team will be ranked high enough to earn an opening-round bye.
Regardless of how the rankings fall, Miami’s loss on Saturday has turned every ACC game from here on out into an elimination game.
So start brushing up on those tie-breaking procedures.
There’s a good chance they’re going to come into play.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
