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An old sports editor of mine had a saying to let me know any time he disagreed with what I’d written in one of my columns.
“Sometimes wrong, never in doubt,” he’d tell me.
I bring this up because I can just hear him saying it while looking over the “25 ACC Bold Predictions” column I wrote just before the start of the season.
Some of the takes were out there, I’ll admit. But amazingly, I’ve actually hit or still have a chance of hitting more than I’ve missed.
Georgia Tech did, in fact, beat Florida State in Ireland. Jacolby Criswell is UNC’s starting quarterback. Pat Narduzzi is well on the way to saving his job. If he hasn’t already. And the ACC still hasn’t imploded.
Still, there are plenty of picks about which I was never in doubt, but in hindsight have turned out to be wrong. Now that we’ve reached the midway point in the season, here are a few of those I’d like to have back:
North Carolina’s defense will get the Tar Heels to a bowl game
At 3-3, it’s still possible that Mack Brown’s team will find the 3 wins it still needs to sneak into the postseason. But even if the Tar Heels do snap out of their current slide and become bowl eligible, it won’t be because of an improved defense.
New coordinator Geoff Collins received rave reviews for his unit’s opening week performance in a 19-17 win at Minnesota that saw UNC hold the Gophers to fewer than 100 yards rushing and only 2 touchdowns. But the good vibes wore off quickly.
The first warning signs came when Charlotte put up 309 passing yards against the Tar Heels, with 6 completions of 25 yards or more. Then came the 70-point embarrassment against James Madison, followed by the 2nd half meltdown against Duke. Six games into the season, UNC is allowing 28.7 points per game. That’s even more than the 27.3 points per game that got Gene Chizik fired last year.
Jalen Brown will have a breakout season for Florida State
The transfer from LSU is a potential game-breaker who has the kind of ability that can turn every catch into a potential touchdown. His addition was supposed to help the Seminoles make up for the 91 catches and 13 touchdowns lost with the departures of top receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.
That’s not how it’s turned out. Though much of the failures of FSU’s passing game thus far can be traced to quarterback play and a porous offensive line, Wilson has been a nonfactor. He has only 8 catches for 75 yards, with only 1 reception over 20 yards and no touchdowns.
Tony Elliott won’t survive the season
Elliott hasn’t officially saved his job yet. His Virginia Cavaliers still have a brutal back-loaded schedule that could derail a 4-1 overall start, and 2-0 in the ACC, that’s their best since Bronco Mendenhall’s penultimate season in Charlottesville in 2019.
But he’s already surpassed his win total from each of his 1st 2 seasons on the job. More importantly, his team has shown tangible signs of growth along the way. Especially in the way it has learned to win games that would almost certainly have been losses in the past.
Five of the Cavaliers’ 9 defeats in 2023 were by a touchdown or less, with 4 coming by 3 or fewer points. They’ve flipped the script this year by battling back from a 30-17 4th quarter deficit to beat Wake Forest on the road in Week 2, then battled back from an early 14-point hole to take down Boston College 24-14 last week.
Elliott’s leadership has never been in question. He showed that in the way he navigated his program through an unthinkable tragedy in 2021. Now he’s showing that he can coach, too.
NC State will finally get over the 10-win hump
It made sense at the time. The Wolfpack were going off yet another 9-win season in 2023. Coach Dave Doeren and his staff went all-in on the transfer portal to build an offense to supplement an already elite defense. And the schedule laid out nicely for a run at getting into double-digits for only the 2nd time in school history.
I wasn’t the only one who thought so highly of State. The Pack were picked to finish 4th in the ACC’s preseason poll and received 8 1st-place votes.
Even with lopsided losses to Tennessee and Clemson, 10 wins was still a realistic possibility with a bowl game factored into the equation. Not anymore. Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest and a major regression on defense have the Wolfpack at 3-3. Even with a similar 2nd half surge to the one that saved last season, 10 wins is only possible if they win out.
One of the Wolfpack’s wins will be against Tennessee
Yeah, I went out on a limb by picking Georgia Tech’s upset of Florida State in Week 0 and got it right. But this turned out to be a leap of faith that went off the deep end. The bigger, faster, deeper Vols outclassed the Wolfpack in every aspect of the game, outgaining them in a 51-10 rout that could have been even worse had Tennessee not stumbled over its own feet several times in the 1st half.
Virginia Tech will play Florida State for the ACC championship and both make the Playoff
It didn’t take long for this beauty to go up in flames. By the time we’d reached Week 2, the Seminoles were already 0-2, the Hokies had lost to Vanderbilt and everybody’s preseason predictions were headed for the round file.
FSU’s season has turned into such a dumpster fire that it will be hard-pressed just to earn bowl eligibility, let alone a shot at Playoff redemption after last year’s snub. And while the Hokies are finally beginning to look like the team I thought they’d be before the season began – and that Vandy loss doesn’t look quite so bad anymore – their chances of contending in the ACC took a major hit with that controversial loss to Miami.
They might not be out of the race. But between the tiebreaker they gave up to the Hurricanes and Brent Pry’s record in close games, getting to Charlotte on Dec. 9 is a longshot at best.
Of that, I’m certain. Even if I turn out to be wrong.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
