An early look at the SEC Player of the Year race, with favorites and darkhorses
By Tom Brew
Published:
The best football seasons are the ones where plenty of teams think they have a chance to win a title. As 2016 slowly creeps closer for us – but far too slowly – there are a lot of SEC schools who are looking forward to winning a division title. And they’re not wrong. There are at least six schools that are confident they can win their division.
The two defending champions, Alabama in the SEC West and Florida in the SEC East, both appear a bit vulnerable this year. That said, both of those fan bases are still convinced they’re the team to beat. LSU and Ole Miss plan on having a say in the West and Tennessee and Georgia both consider themselves the frontrunners in the East. Someone else might step up, too. Unlikely, but they might.
It’s going to take a star to make the difference this year, so here’s our breakdown – a very early breakdown – of the 2016 SEC Player of the Year race. There’s plenty of star power coming back.
The favorites
1. Leonard Fournette, LSU running back: On Halloween, Fournette was the runaway Heisman Trophy winner. Everything changed when he was stifled by Alabama’s defense and the Tigers went on an ugly three-game skid. Fournette is the best returning player in the country and he’s going to post huge numbers again. If he rushes for more than 2,000 yards this year, no one will be surprised. Winning the SEC West would be the bigger surprise.
Odds of winning: 35 percent.
2. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss quarterback: Kelly led the SEC in passing last year, throwing for 4,042 yards and leading the Rebels to an impressive Sugar Bowl win. He’s losing his favorite target (Laquon Treadwell) but he’s got plenty of other weapons coming back. Throwing for even more yards is possible, as is avoiding the low moments that came last year (see Florida, Memphis). If Ole Miss wins the SEC, he’s the guy.
Odds of winning: 30 percent.
3. Calvin Ridley, Alabama wide receiver: If Alabama wins the SEC – and don’t they always? – and the smart money is on their best player getting the best individual award, then that’s going to be Ridley. The Tide have had some great receivers lately (Julio Jones, Amari Cooper) and Ridley seems like he’s going to fit right in to that group. The key here, of course, is whether a new QB in Tuscaloosa can get him the ball. But if he’s a 1,000-yard receiver and the Tide win it all, he’s the guy.
Odds of winning: 20 percent.
4. Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee quarterback: The hype machine is already hard at work in Knoxville and Vols fans everywhere are convinced that 2016 is the year they are returning to greatness. There’s plenty of legitimate reasons for them to think that way, because there’s talent everywhere on both sides of the ball. Most importantly, they have an experienced quarterback in Dobbs, who’s already seen it all. He can run and throw and if UT wins the SEC, Dobbs will be the MVP.
Odds of winning: 10 percent
5. Jalen Tabor, Florida defensive back: Even with Vernon Hargreaves III in the same secondary last year at Florida, Tabor stood out as a star. He had four interceptions and took two back for scores. He’s also great at telling everyone how great he is, which is all good this day and age. Florida is the defending SEC East champion and it’s unlikely they are going to repeat. But if Tabor comes up big and leads them to upsets over Tennessee and Georgia, he could be in the mix.
Odds of winning: 5 percent.
The darkhorses
1. Myles Garrett, Texas A&M defensive end: Garrett was unblockable last year for the Aggies and more of the same is expected in 2016. He’s probably the SEC’s best defensive player and is going to post huge sack numbers for the second year in a row. If A&M can somehow break into the top three in the West and make some noise, Garrett will get consideration. That’s doubtful from a team standpoint because of their QB issues, but Garrett will do big things.
2. Jalen Hurd, Tennessee running back: I went back and between Hurd and Dobbs for the first list and settled on Dobbs because he’ll get ALL the snaps at quarterback and Hurd will be sharing carries with Alvin Kamara at running back. Still, Hurd is going to have a huge year and if the Vols run the table in the SEC, he could very well be the MVP. Especially with UT being the frontrunner in the East, plenty of eyes are going to be on Hurd all season anyway.
3. Jonathan Allen, Alabama defensive end: If Alabama wins the SEC again, it’s more than likely going to be because the defense dominates once again. And since the offensive accolades might be a share-by-committee thing (see above), it might be a defensive player who is their best MVP candidate. They might share the big moments too, but Allen might be the best. Reuben Foster, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tim Williams are going to have huge years too and could have a say.
4. Nick Chubb, Georgia running back: If we knew Chubb was going to be 100 percent healthy from the beginning of the season, he’d probably be on the first list – high up on the first list. But Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury and we don’t know yet how much of a factor he’s going to be. But if he’s good to go, we can expect Heisman-like numbers similar to what he produced a year ago. We’re in wait-and-see mode on Chubb.
5. Jacob Eason, Georgia quarterback: This is a long, long longshot because we’re not even sure that the touted five-star recruit is even going to be the Bulldogs’ starting QB in September. But if he is and he lights it up like everyone thinks he’s going to at some point, and the Bulldogs have a great year and win the SEC East, he’ll be in the conversation. A longshot, I know, but we’re all very interested in seeing what this kid can do.
Tom Brew is an award-winning journalist and author who is covering SEC football for Saturday Down South.
