Handicapping the absurdly early 2026 Heisman Trophy field
By David Wasson
Published:
From its most humble beginnings in 1935 to the hype-filled present day, the 45-pound hunk of cast bronze awarded yearly first by Downtown Athletic Club in Manhattan is one of the most desired trophies in all of sports.
Sculpted by Frank Eliscu, the stiff-armed Heisman Trophy signifies the most outstanding player in college football every year. Hopefuls strike the same pose as the 13.5-inch tall award, programs spend millions in marketing dollars positioning their star athletes to earn votes, and having your name engraved on the plaque at its base is an honor that changes every winner’s life forever.
From Chicago halfback Jay Berwanger to Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Heisman winners sometimes go onto NFL greatness and sometimes disappear into obscurity. And some don’t even compete in pro football at all (we see you, Charlie Ward…). But for that one moment on stage every December, the winner of the Heisman Trophy is at the absolute pinnacle of college football.
So who will lay hands on the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Even though games won’t even be played until August for the season in question, jockeying has already begun among elite Heisman hopefuls. Here is the field of top contenders as we see it:
1. CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
2025 stats: 2,741 passing yards, 27 total TDs, 6 INTs
Why Carr will win: For starters, we anticipate an epic overcorrection headed the Fighting Irish’s way after the program’s disputed omission from the 12-team College Football Playoff. There are plenty of Heisman voters who believe the Irish got hosed in the CFP decision – even after Miami advanced to the championship game before falling to Indiana. Carr was a beast in his first season running Notre Dame’s offense and was the fifth-most efficient passer in the nation. Simply put, the Golden Dome’s legacy with the Heisman is almost as good as any in the country, and it is easy to see Carr torch opponents all season to become the eighth Notre Dame player to hoist the trophy.
2. Arch Manning, QB, Texas
2025 stats: 3,163 passing yards, 399 rushing yards, 36 total TDs, 7 INTs
Why Manning will win: Because he will finally live up to the stratospheric hype we all heaped upon him starting last year. Even though popular opinion would have you believe Manning fell off the planet in 2025, he actually matured into a really strong quarterback as the season wore on. Texas will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in 2026 after going from preseason No. 1 to outside looking in, and the Longhorns’ offense reloaded in the portal around him to provide even more weapons. Manning winning the Heisman would be a really good 2-year story, too, and we know voters love a good storyline.
3. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
2025 stats: 1,243 receiving yards, 13 total TDs
Why Smith will win: It is actually easy to argue that Smith has been the best on-field player in college football since the middle of the 2024 season. The Buckeyes ace went for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns in that freshman campaign that led to a CFP championship, and he was almost identically productive alongside new quarterback Julian Sayin at the helm last season. Sayin could shave off some Heisman buzz for Smith, but that didn’t seem to hurt Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020 when Mac Jones was torching the country. If Smith stays healthy, he could very well strike the pose at the podium.
4. Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia
2025 stats: 2,894 passing yards, 34 total TDs, 5 INTs
Why Stockton will win: Because even though Georgia has captured consecutive SEC titles with the highly effect Stockton at the helm, he attracts startlingly little national interest. We don’t figure that to change much in 2026, especially with Manning again dragging the conference’s Heisman hype train – allowing Stockton to quietly dissect opposing defenses in much the same manner. Stockton completed almost 70% of his passes in 2025. He’ll have another top-flight batch of receivers to target and a defense that perennially brings the goods.
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5. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
2025 stats: 3,565 passing yards, 32 total TDs, 10 INTs
Why Moore will win: Moore surprised many, both in Eugene and around the country, when the presumptive No. 2 overall NFL Draft pick decided to return to the Ducks for 2026 – throwing the transfer portal into a momentary tizzy of correction. Moore apparently decided he needed a bit more seasoning to add to his sometimes-otherworldly gifts. Plus, no one markets its athletes like Oregon… so Moore will be splashed on as many billboards and hype videos as humanly possible.
6. Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU
2025 stats: 1,628 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 3 INTs
Why Leavitt will win: Leavitt’s 2025 numbers certainly make him an outlier from the other 5 top candidates, but he has what none of the others has – Lane Kiffin as his head coach. Kiffin could have made virtual unknown Trinidad Chambliss a Heisman winner last season had Chambliss started the season as the Ole Miss QB1, and also helped mold Alabama running back Derrick Henry into a Heisman winner in 2015. Kiffin’s bona fides as a quarterback whisperer (see Matt Leinart at USC and Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss) are unquestioned, and Leavitt will have the usual batch of superstar weapons at LSU to work with.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
