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College football is already a month old and at this point there’s a good idea of the Playoff contenders. While it looks like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State are the clear-cut top teams with Clemson a step or two behind (for now), this has the makings of a very strange season.
Instead of one or two undefeated teams, it feels like there could be three or more undefeated teams this season … and one very good one-loss team in the SEC.
There is a lot of football left to play and major injuries can turn a top team into secondary contender real fast. But for the fun of speculation, entering Week 5 is as good a time as any to start looking at the Playoff picture and see who’s still alive, who’s got the upper hand and who can get back in the race.
If I had to project the CFP top 10 right now it would look like:
1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Ohio State
4) Clemson
5) LSU
6) Notre Dame
7) Stanford
8) Oklahoma
9) Penn State
10) Washington
Not that much different from the FPI:
The 10 best teams in college football — going forward — as we head into today's action, according to FPI. pic.twitter.com/QGDgDyYoBF
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 22, 2018
Oklahoma slips a little after the scare against Army, which puts Notre Dame and Stanford ahead of the Sooners. Even though Auburn beat Washington in Week 1, the Tigers are on the outside looking in because of the timing of the loss to LSU.
The ACC’s struggles put Clemson in a position where it might have to run the table to return to the Playoff for the fourth consecutive year. This makes the sudden decision to move Trevor Lawrence to QB1 right now all the more curious knowing Kelly Bryant had a way out. Unlike 2016 and 2017, the Tigers have no margin of error.
The ACC struggles also affect Notre Dame, which might not have another ranked opponent on their schedule after the showdown with Stanford this week.
The conference breakdown will add more details to the various scenarios:
SEC
Projected teams in CFP Rankings (6): Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State.
If two of the top three teams in the conference (Alabama, Georgia and LSU) can run the table going into the SEC Championship Game then it’s likely the conference will get two teams in the Playoff again.
LSU seems to have the toughest road with Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama over the next six weeks. If the Tigers survive that gauntlet and manage to go 12-0, they might not need to win the SECCG to stay in the top four. And they’ve already played the hardest schedule to date
Who has accomplished the most this season? For the second week in a row, LSU leads the nation in Strength of Record. pic.twitter.com/ydKeeGhMRq
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 24, 2018
Alabama should roll through its next four games (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, at Arkansas, vs. Missouri and at Tennessee) before the Nov. 3 showdown at LSU. If the Tide can extend their win streak against the Tigers to 8 games, they play their final three games at home and will be heavily favored to beat Mississippi State and Auburn. Barring a major choke job, the Tide are in great position to stay in the top four even with a road loss to LSU.
Georgia’s schedule is a little tricky to figure out because of Kentucky and Florida. Home games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt should be nice tune-ups for a road trip to LSU on Oct. 13. Even with a loss the Bulldogs likely wouldn’t be eliminated from the top four. And if Florida avoids its recent trend of October slumps and Kentucky can stay ranked going into November, the Bulldogs should have plenty of schedule strength with those two and the Auburn game at home on Nov. 10 to make up for a potential stumble in Death Valley.
Auburn is in the best position of the second-tier teams in the projected CFP. If the Tigers can win road games at Alabama and Georgia AND avoid a second loss, there wouldn’t be a team in the nation with a better wins on their resume. Kentucky has a decent chance to be 8-0 going into a home game with Georgia on Nov. 3. If the Wildcats can get that far it will be interesting to see how much respect the committee gives them. Mississippi State flunked its first real test of the season and has a tough 4-games-in-5-week stretch with Florida, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M.
Big Ten
Projected teams in CFP Rankings: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
No game has caused more headaches to the committee in the past two years than Ohio State vs. Penn State. In 2016 the Nittany Lions stubbed their toe twice in the first four games but upset the Buckeyes in Happy Valley as part of a 9-game win streak to end the regular season. However, winning the Big Ten wasn’t enough for Penn State to erase memories of a 49-10 shellacking it took from Michigan early in the season. The committee chose Ohio State, which lost 31-0 to Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
In 2017 it was Penn State that was undefeated and ranked No. 2 going into the game at Columbus. Ohio State, which already lost at home to Oklahoma in Week 2, rallied for a 39-38 win to get back into Top 4 contention. The Buckeyes, however, proceeded to get whipped 55-24 by Iowa the following week to end any chances of a third Playoff trip in four years. To make matters worse, Penn State lost a second time and Ohio State proceeded to beat No. 3 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game to completely shut out the conference.
The Big Ten will have to put its weight behind whoever wins Saturday’s game because the rest of the top contenders in the East Division already have one loss. Wisconsin, the only team in the weak Big Ten West worth considering, blew its Playoff chance with a loss to BYU two weeks ago.
It’s safe to say that Saturday night’s Ohio State-Penn State should be considered a CFP elimination game.
ACC
Projected teams in CFP Rankings: Clemson and Miami.
As long as Clemson keeps winning it will be in the CFP as a No. 2 or No. 3. It’s very possible the Tigers will not face another ranked team this season until the ACC Championship Game against Miami. The past two seasons Clemson has been bitten by the upset bug, so anything is possible.
Miami’s loss to the LSU likely ended its chances of being in the top four unless a lot of teams ahead of them lose. The schedule isn’t strong, so the Hurricanes would have to win in dominating fashion to get some style points. Even a win against Clemson in the ACCCG might not be enough without a lot of help.
Duke is in the AP Top 25, but the schedule probably wouldn’t get the Blue Devils in the CFP Top 25. The Blue Devils would have to run the table through October to set up interesting road games against Miami and Clemson in November. N.C. State is also undefeated but has played a pillow soft schedule. The Wolfpack were a little unlucky that Hurricane Florence canceled their game against West Virginia
Big 12
Projected teams in CFP Rankings: Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas.
ESPN Analytics basically believes that the Big 12’s chances in the CFP come down to Oklahoma or bust. That might be correct because even if Oklahoma or West Virginia runs the table it might not be enough to knock off a one-loss team from the SEC. That’s not some SEC homer speaking (believe me I don’t fit that description), it’s just facts. And the likelihood of three or more teams finishing the season undefeated seems higher than normal.
Without any quality nonconference wins Oklahoma needs West Virginia and Texas to stay ranked. West Virginia actually tried to schedule a tougher non-conference but Tennessee is having another down year and the N.C. State game was canceled because of Hurricane Florence. That’s left the Mountaineers needing Texas and Oklahoma to stay in the top 20 when they finally play them in November.
Texas is kind of interesting. The win over USC will probably look better as the season goes on. The loss to Maryland is bad, but it happened in Week 1. Let’s say the Longhorns beat Oklahoma on Oct. 6 and are 7-1 when they host West Virginia on Nov. 3rd. If this happens don’t be surprised if the Longhorns are deeper in the CFP mix than you think. They would still need some help to have a shot at the top four but Texas is a heritage program and that carries a lot of weight.
The Big 12 appears like one of the odd conferences out this year, but if teams that are expected to be undefeated, like Clemson or Ohio State, lose a game, the Sooners, Mountaineers or a 1-loss Texas team might be able to capitalize.
Pac-12
Projected teams in CFP Rankings: Stanford, Washington, Cal, Oregon.
Stanford and Washington are both in “CFP elimination” games this week. Stanford travels to South Bend to play Notre Dame (more on the Irish later) and Washington hosts BYU.
If Stanford wins Saturday the Cardinal seem to have a pretty nice path toward a showdown with Washington on Nov. 3 and an intriguing road game against Cal on Nov. 17. A loss and the Cardinal are pretty much eliminated from top four consideration for now.
Washington’s opening-week loss to Auburn didn’t damage the Huskies’ chances much, but they have a much tougher road. If Washington can beat BYU on Saturday, it still has to prepare for a 4-game stretch of Oregon, Colorado, Cal and Stanford.
Cal is undefeated with a nice win at BYU. If the Bears beat Oregon on Saturday then they will deserve a more serious look. Colorado is undefeated and could be 5-0 going into a road game against USC on Oct. 13, but the Buffaloes have had a soft schedule and a 33-28 road win against Nebraska doesn’t impress anyone right now.
Like the Big 12, the Pac-12 looks like potential outsiders unless Stanford runs the table, and even if that happens the Cardinal might need some help.
Independents and the Group of 5
Projected teams in CFP Rankings: Notre Dame, UCF, BYU.
Notre Dame not only needs to beat Stanford on Saturday, the Irish need to win impressively because its schedule drops off considerably after this weekend. Virginia Tech and Florida State, two opponents that were supposed to add strength to Notre Dame’s schedule, are unranked. USC will need to get hot down the stretch to re-enter the Top 25.
But Notre Dame, like Texas, has a lot of cache and the one thing that could knock a 1-loss SEC team from the playoff is an undefeated Notre Dame team.
UCF’s strength of schedule is 129th (!!). It will improve somewhat with games against Memphis and Cincinnati and USF, but such a poor nonconference schedule gives the committee an easy answer as to why they again will shut out the Knights — T-shirts be damned. I’m not saying play Alabama, but play someone with a pulse.
BYU’s loss to Cal basically eliminates them from any contention with the top 4 but a win at Washington combined with the win against Wisconsin earlier this month would put the Cougars in position for a big bowl if they can run the table.
Corey Long is a freelance writer for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow Corey on Twitter @CoreyLong.
