Here’s what prediction markets are saying about all 4 CFP quarterfinal games
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It’s almost time for the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
This week’s slate is headlined by a pair of matchups involving SEC teams on Thursday. Alabama will face Indiana in the Rose Bowl while Ole Miss and Georgia face off for the second time this season, with this game being held at the Sugar Bowl.
The other 2 quarterfinal matchups are Ohio State vs. Miami on Wednesday night and Texas Tech vs. Oregon in the 12 p.m. window on Thursday.
Best college football prediction markets
With the emergence of prediction markets such as Kalshi, users who feel they have an edge on the market can put money behind their college football predictions. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi is live in all 50 US states.
Here’s what prediction markets currently look like for all 4 CFP quarterfinals:
Miami vs. Ohio State
Ohio State earned a first-round bye, so this will be the Buckeyes’ first game action since their close loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game way back on Dec. 6. In the Ryan Day era, Ohio State is 17-4 when it has at least 10 days of rest.
Miami is coming off of a dramatic road win at Texas A&M last week. The Hurricanes’ offense sputtered, particularly once it crossed the 50-yard line. Miami only managed 10 points in-part because it went just 1-for-4 on field goals. Running back Mark Fletcher had the best game of his career against the Aggies, but quarterback Carson Beck averaged just over 5 yards per attempt in the win.
As of this writing, Kalshi’s marketplace gives Ohio State a 75% chance to win outright.
Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Oregon crushed James Madison in the opening round of the CFP. The Dukes found some offense in the 4th quarter, but this game was not nearly as close as the final 17-point margin may suggest. Through the first 3 quarters, Oregon won the yards-per-play battle by a margin of 12.1 to 4.8.
Texas Tech earned a first-round bye thanks to its dominance in the Big 12 this season. Its only loss of the year came to Arizona State when quarterback Behren Morton was out with an injury. The Red Raiders are elite on defense (No. 2 nationally in yards per play allowed) and clutch on offense (50% late-down success rate, per Game on Paper). That recipe has Texas Tech as a narrow underdog in this game against one of the Big Ten’s best programs.
Kalshi users have Oregon priced at 53 cents per contract to win this game.
Alabama vs. Indiana
Alabama snuck past Oklahoma in the quarterfinal round thanks to some critical mistakes by John Mateer and the Sooners’ special teams unit. The Crimson Tide’s offense still hasn’t cleared the 5 yards per play threshold against an FBS team since Nov. 15. Alabama’s defense, though, is perhaps underrated. The Tide rank 20th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper.
Indiana is college football’s lone remaining undefeated team. The Hoosiers turned in one of the most dominant regular seasons of the modern era. Their point differential of +401 during the regular season ranks 5th-best since 2014. The 4 teams who rank above them all made the final 4 of the College Football Playoff in their respective seasons. Indiana has no obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball, though it is worth noting star pass rusher Stephen Daley suffered a season-ending injury after the Big Ten title game. He registered 19 tackles for loss this season.
Here’s a look at the Kalshi marketplace for this game:
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Ole Miss had no trouble with Tulane in its first-round matchup. The Rebels also handled UGA’s defense quite well during their regular season meeting. Ole Miss scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions and finished with 5.9 yards per play for the game. It was the other side of the ball that was the problem, as the Bulldogs racked up 510 total yards and Gunner Stockton threw for 4 touchdowns in a comeback victory. Of course, head coach Lane Kiffin isn’t here — a fact that will loom large in the run up to this game.
Georgia’s defense may have struggled on that day against Ole Miss, but it has been excellent over the past several weeks. Over their last 6 games, Georgia is allowing just 4.5 yards per play on average and has conceded just 7 touchdowns over that span. For context, over its first 5 SEC games, Georgia permitted 5.3 yards per play and 16 touchdowns. The Bulldogs have shown meaningful improvement on that side of the ball as the season has gone on.
Here’s a live look at Kalshi’s market for this primetime matchup:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
