Jayden Daniels popular bet to go No. 1 overall at sportsbook despite long odds
By Andrew Olson
Published:
The 2024 NFL Draft is almost here. The first round will begin on Thursday, April 25 in Detroit.
Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, has long been the presumptive No. 1 overall pick to the Chicago Bears. Williams, though, isn’t the most popular bet for No. 1 overall, at least one sportsbook.
In data shared with Saturday Down South, LSU’s Jayden Daniels is BetMGM’s most bet player for the No. 1 overall pick. Daniels has the highest percentage of bets and the largest percentage of the handle (money bet), making him the book’s biggest liability for No. 1 overall. Williams, though, is still a heavy favorite.
Here’s a look at how the No. 1 pick is being bet at BetMGM:
| Player | Opening Odds | Odds March 1st | Odds April 2nd | Last Week’s Odds | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
| Jayden Daniels | +5000 | +1200 | +2000 | +3000 | +3000 | 33.1% | 33.2% |
| Caleb Williams | -1250 | -1100 | -5000 | -10000 | -10000 | 17.1% | 32.9% |
| J.J. McCarthy | OTB | OTB | +5000 | +8000 | +8000 | 14.8% | 10.9% |
| Drake Maye | +1000 | +1100 | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +2500 | +1500 | +8000 | +15000 | +15000 | 8.7% | 7.6% |
| Malik Nabers | OTB | OTB | +10000 | +25000 | +25000 | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | +10000 | 10000 | 10000 | 15000 | 15000 | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Bo Nix | +10000 | 10000 | 10000 | 15000 | 15000 | 4.2% | 1.7% |
Pricing, pundits likely to credit for bets on Daniels
So why are so many bets being placed on Daniels to go No. 1 overall when Williams is the heavy favorite? Daniels’ odds and media love likely have bettors willing to take a chance and play the “what if” game.
As the above table shows, Daniels’ odds have ranged from +5000 to +1200 at BetMGM. The book currently prices Daniels to go No. 1 overall +3000. If the Bears were to shock the world and take Daniels first, a $100 bet would win $3000 for a $3100 payout.
The chance, however slim, to multiply a wager by 30 is understandably attractive to bettors.
Williams, on the other hand, has been the favorite. At opening odds of -1250, a $1250 bet would be needed to win $100 on Williams going No. 1 overall. Williams is now -10000. Bettors are presumably hesitant to put up $10,000 to win $100 at current odds.
Many of the bets on Daniels to go No. 1 overall may have been placed when pundits were engaging in the debate of whether Daniels or Williams should go first. ESPN’s Louis Riddick and Dan Orlovsky made the case for taking Daniels No. 1 in March.
Daniels still the most bet player for No. 2 overall pick
For all the “Daniels No. 1” fun, bettors are also in on the LSU quarterback being the No. 2 overall pick.
At BetMGM, Daniels has the highest ticket percentage and highest handle percentage to go No. 2. He’s the favorite and the book’s biggest liability for the second pick.
Daniels’ odds for No. 2 overall have seen notable movement in the leadup to the draft. He opened at +140 behind favorite Drake Maye (-130). Last week, Daniels was -150 and is now at -400, meaning $400 would need to be wagered to win $100.
Here’s how BetMGM is seeing the No. 2 overall pick being bet:
| Player | Opening Odds | Last Weeks Odds | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
| Jayden Daniels | +140 | -150 | -400 | 32.8% | 56.1% |
| Drake Maye | -130 | +135 | +220 | 26.7% | 35.0% |
| Caleb Williams | +1600 | +5000 | +6600 | 13.8% | 2.8% |
| J.J. McCarthy | +20000 | +900 | +1200 | 12.4% | 3.8% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1400 | +8000 | +10000 | 7.6% | 1.7% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Bo Nix | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Malik Nabers | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 | 1.7% | 0.1% |
We’ll see how it all plays out in one week!
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Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
