Joel Klatt believes the top-5 showdown between Alabama and Georgia will come down to explosive plays.
The fourth-ranked Crimson Tide (3-0) host the second-ranked Bulldogs (3-0) in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. ABC has the broadcast (7:30 p.m. ET) so Klatt will be elsewhere, but the FOX Sports analyst — like everyone else — will have his attention turned to Alabama Saturday evening.
This game will be the first regular-season meeting between the 2 teams since 2020. With Georgia sitting as a 1.5-point favorite (FanDuel), it’ll be the first game for Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium as an underdog since 2007. It’ll be the first meeting between Kirby Smart and new Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer. And it’s a game Alabama has completely controlled in recent history. The Crimson Tide have won 8 of the last 9 against the Dawgs, including last year’s meeting for the SEC title in Atlanta.
Related reading: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis for Georgia vs. Alabama
The matchups all over the field are enticing. Alabama has the sixth-ranked scoring offense. Georgia has the third-ranked scoring defense. Alabama ranks 12th nationally in net success rate, but hasn’t exactly been tested (114th in strength of schedule). Georgia hasn’t been operating at expected efficiency, but the Dawgs have already faced Clemson and Kentucky away from home.
“I do think it is strength against strength,” Klatt said of the matchup between the Alabama offense and the Georgia defense. “Bama’s offense has 11 touchdowns right now of 25 or more yards. … Georgia, on defense conversely, is a team that does not give up the explosive play.
“They haven’t allowed explosives really all year. Only 1 pass play of 20 yards all season. Now you get kind of a strength-against-strength matchup and I can’t wait to see how that pans out.”
The caveat to Georgia’s big-play-allergic defense is that it hasn’t been tested yet. Kentucky ranks 71st in game on paper’s opponent-adjusted EPA per play metric. Clemson, it seems, was still reading the instructions when it kicked off against Georgia in Week 1.
But all 3 of Alabama’s opponents thus far have ranked outside the top 100 in adjusted EPA per play allowed. We’re working with priors a bit on that side of the matchup. Alabama has been combustible. Georgia has the scheme to neutralize the deep parts of the field.
Does Georgia have the horses to hit explosive plays of its own?
So often, these massive collisions between elite teams become very simple. Who wins the turnover margin? Who creates a couple more big plays?
“Can Georgia take advantage of big-play opportunities against this Bama secondary? If you’re just looking at this, you would probably say, ‘Ehh, it’s questionable,'” Klatt said. “Do they have that downfield threat? I don’t think it’s been a great transition post-Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. So, while you still have Carson Beck, it’s very different for a quarterback to roll out there with a skill position group that I think has taken a bit of a step backwards.
“That doesn’t mean they’re not talented. And maybe they’re going to start to produce. But it’s not proven. So, can Georgia, even with a group that has not shown a proclivity to explosive plays, create them in this game? I actually think that is the entire key to the game.”
The Bulldogs will be without All-American guard Tate Ratledge after he suffered an ankle injury in the Kentucky game. Georgia will also be without wideout London Humphreys. While Humphreys hasn’t exactly gotten on track this season, with just 2 catches to his name, he averaged 20 yards a catch for Vanderbilt last year and part of the appeal this offseason was in his ability to stretch the field.
The matchup between slot receiver Dominic Lovett — Beck’s preferred target through 3 games — and Alabama defensive back Keon Sabb will be one to watch.
“I told you that the key was Georgia being able to create and hit on those explosives when they potentially arrive, and yet I have no evidence that they’re going to be able to do that. So, I’m riding with the Tide,” Klatt said. “I think Alabama wins, Milroe plays well and I think Alabama wins a classic, a tight ball game. It’s gonna be 24-21 at home, Bama wins and covers.”
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
