Kentucky basketball preview: 10 things to know (including a prediction) about the 2022-23 season

It has been a humbling couple of seasons for Kentucky basketball.

A 9-16 mark 2 years ago was a bizarre dark specter for the Wildcats program.

A season ago, Kentucky was almost its normal self. There were 26 wins. An 18-point victory at Kansas, a 29-point win over North Carolina and a 28-point win over Tennessee were signs of a return to Wildcat normalcy. But all of that went out the window on March 17, 2022. Kentucky lost to 15th-seeded St. Peters, in the Wildcats’ biggest upset loss in March Madness history.

If you’re the sort who is inclined to see bad news, it’s still been since 2015 since John Calipari reached the Final Four, since 2012 since his Wildcats won an NCAA title and, for that matter, it’s been since March 29, 2019, when UK last won an NCAA Tournament game.

But if you’re the sort who is inclined to see good news, then Kentucky returns National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe (the best returning UK player since at least Jamal Mashburn), point guard Sahvir Wheeler, steadily improving forward Jacob Toppin and a host of others. Add in transfer guard Antonio Reeves, finally healthy Iowa transfer CJ Fredrick, and outstanding freshmen Chris Livingston and Cason Wallace, and Kentucky figures to have a team more like what Big Blue Nation has grown accustomed to knowing.

Here’s the rundown on the Wildcats:

1. Livingston and Wallace are the real deal

Kentucky got a preview of this team in its brief 4-0 tour in the Bahamas. Both of the freshmen showed flashes of brilliance then. Wallace averaged 10.5 points per game, led the team in steals and was 2nd in assists. Livingston averaged 9.8 points per game and was 2nd on the team in rebounding. They’re good enough to play from Day 1, but unlike some recent Kentucky freshmen they won’t have to carry the team early. The results are promising for March.

2. Reeves and Fredrick will help

The knock on some of Cal’s recent teams has been a lack of outside shooting. Enter Fredrick, who might have been the most injured player in college basketball but is finally healthy. Reeves was expected to help some, and by leading UK in scoring in the Bahamas (17.0 points per game) while shooting 52% from 3-point range, he did nothing to temper expectations. The Bahamas tour might not be a perfect sample, but UK shooting 38.1% from long distance was a good sign — especially if Reeves and Fredrick can keep those numbers up.

3. Toppin is the likely MIP

A season ago, Toppin was up-and-down, splitting time with Keion Brooks and showing flashes of brilliance. A year later, Brooks transferred and Toppin has now drawn Calipari’s notice for his ceaseless work ethic. At SEC Media Days, Cal noted that UK’s facial monitoring technology tracks who takes the most shots in the practice facility — and that Toppin led that mark by miles. Calipari noted that he had never had a player who worked the hardest who didn’t have a corresponding rise in production, which bodes well for Toppin.

4. If Wheeler can refine the jumper …

Wheeler earned All-SEC preseason honors, and the only question about the Georgia transfer is the consistency of his perimeter shot. Well, that and his health. Banged up in UK’s exhibition opener, Wheeler might be out of action briefly, but given his ability to drive the basketball, if his shot, which was improved from Athens to Lexington, shows continued improvement, it can only help Kentucky’s offensive consistency. After shooting 26% from 3-point land at Georgia, Wheeler made 31% a year ago. If he could improve to 35% or so, he’ll be nearly unstoppable.

5. Oscar and NIL

The return of Tsheibwe was an unexpected gift for the Wildcats, one definitely paved by the NIL reformation allowed by the NCAA. Tsheibwe — who has been working on his perimeter jumper — might be only a role player in the NBA. But his ability to rebound and work inside made him a collegiate star, and his million-watt personality helped make another year of college lucrative enough for Tsheibwe to choose another year in Lexington. What’s left? Apparently, a guilt trip for his coach. “I’m a sinner,” Calipari freely admitted at Media Days. “But I really feel like a sinner when I’m around him.” Had Tsheibwe come to Kentucky initially instead of West Virginia, he might find himself in the 2023 Kentucky governor’s race.

6. Thiero could be a diamond in the rough

For a program that routinely adds McDonald’s All-Americans, Kentucky’s late addition of guard Adou Thiero was met with resounding silence. But the late-blooming guard, who has grown 6 inches over the past 2 years, is still growing. If this story reminds UK backers of Anthony Davis’ jump from 6-2 suspect to 6-10 prospect, while results might vary, there’s at least a precedent at UK for Thiero’s development. While odds are that Thiero mostly sits and grows this season, he’s continuing to outgrow expectations at every stage.

7. Plea for patience

Following Kentucky’s fairly underwhelming exhibition opener against Missouri Western, Calipari took to social media with a frequent refrain: patience. “We’re not where we need to be right now,” Calipari told Big Blue Nation in a video, noting that the team could be “a little shaky” in November and December. Part of the problem is injuries. Tsheibwe, Wheeler and Toppin, among others, have been battling minor injuries. Calipari noted in his video that he hoped the injury bug “hit us early this year,” as opposed to last season’s down-the-stretch troubles.

8. Gonzaga on, Indiana coming

On the heels of a pair of disappointing seasons, Calipari has heeded the requests of the masses to beef up the schedule. Aside from the ongoing series with Gonzaga, Calipari indicated that a series with Indiana is again forthcoming. At SEC Media Days, he noted that the games wouldn’t actually be played until about 2025, but the return of a rivalry with the Hoosiers will be a promising development for Kentucky fans always yearning for another big game.

9. A class to remember

One highlight of the early season will come in the early signing period, as Calipari is expected to sign the nation’s best recruiting class. The Wildcats have commitments from 247Sports.com’s Nos. 2, 6, 9 and 29 players. All signs point to adding No. 1 overall recruit DJ Wagner. While Kentucky has continued to sign big-name recruits, it’s worth noting that not since 2013 has UK signed the nation’s top prospect (at least per 247Sports). Signing the top 2 calls to mind the 2012 class with Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. That recruiting class certainly ended well …

10. A prediction

Prediction time: The Wildcats will likely experience a fair share of pre-conference struggles and difficulties in an increasingly competitive SEC. Kentucky’s depth will keep the Wildcats in the regular-season race. Tsheibwe and Toppin will have All-SEC seasons and Kentucky will reach Selection Sunday as a No. 2 seed. This time, Calipari’s team gets good breaks rather than bad down the stretch, and the Wildcats return to the Final Four for the 1st time in 7 seasons.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.