Kentucky Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Wildcats in 2025

I’ve been playing a game this offseason, and it’s not particularly fun.

I suppose it’s not so much a game and more of a question that I ask people who like college football. It’s a depressing question. Like, the type of question you only ask to someone if they won’t take it as a direct slap in the face of their football knowledge.

“Can you name a current Kentucky player?”

If you’re reading this, your answer is an emphatic “yes.” But for the casual college football fan or even the casual SEC fan, it’s become a challenge that’s bordering on early-2020s Vanderbilt levels. It’s not that Kentucky has fallen that far under Mark Stoops, but when you look up and down the depth chart, you don’t see the staples that you’re used to seeing. That happens when you go 4-8 and lose 31 players to the transfer portal, including multi-year starters like Barion Brown (LSU) and Dane Key (Nebraska). Kentucky’s lone preseason All-SEC selection was third-team punter Aidan Laros, who split that honor with Arkansas punter Devin Bale.

The easiest answer to the question is Zach Calzada, which is then always followed by another question.

“Wait, he’s still in college?”

Yeah, he’ll be 25 this fall having played at Texas A&M, Auburn (sort of), FCS Incarnate Ward and now, Kentucky, where he and Cutter Boley will vie for QB1 duties (more on that in a minute).

More pressing for UK is that its roster turnover included losing all 4 of its 2024 All-SEC selections (2 via NFL Draft, 1 via exhausted eligibility and 1 via transfer). That’s troubling for a program that hasn’t won a Power Conference game at Kroger Field since Ray Davis ran all over Florida in Sept. 2023. Stoops had that 10-win season in 2021, he got UK all the way to No. 7 in the AP Poll in the first month of the 2022 season … and has since gone 8-20 vs. Power Conference competition (3-11 at home vs. Power Conference competition). The Vince Marrow-Louisville departure this summer was just another head-scratcher for a program that’s had no shortage of them the last couple years.

The question is whether Stoops can do his best bit of troubleshooting to date, or if a $37 million buyout — one that’s all due within 60 days — is going to become the No. 1 topic of conversation in Lexington this fall.

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Auburn
• Florida
• Georgia

Let’s continue with Kentucky:

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Mark Stoops wanted offensive stability, so he got offensive stability

I don’t necessarily say that as a positive. Stoops arrived at SEC Media Days in 2024 and made a quip that he had to hire yet another new offensive coordinator. To that point, the last time that he kept the same offensive coordinator from year to year was from 2019-20, which we all remember as a completely stable time across college football/the world. So after Stoops’ new hire, Bush Hamdan, led Kentucky to a bottom 15 scoring offense in FBS in 2024, what happened? You already know. Stoops opted for stability by retaining Hamdan.

To be fair, Brock Vandagriff wasn’t Hamdan’s hand-picked guy. That was Liam Coen, who became an NFL head coach less than a year after leaving UK a second time. So now, Hamdan has a quarterback that he helped pick (Calzada), as well as Boley, who showed promise in November as a true freshman, but ultimately completed 49% of his passes for 6.4 yards/attempt.

Was Boley thrown into the fire too early? Perhaps. The former 4-star recruit and local favorite got his most significant reps against teams (Texas and Louisville) that won a combined 22 games last season. It wasn’t exactly ideal surroundings, either. How much of that was Hamdan’s scheme remains to be seen. What feels like the more likely scenario is that Boley waits while Calzada gets his 3rd opportunity to become an SEC starter.

Calzada put up 64 total touchdowns (54 passing, 10 rushing) at Incarnate Word the last 2 years, where he looked to rebuild his career. Will that translate in the SEC? It could depend on how much UK did to improve the supporting cast.

UK is No. 48 in percentage of returning offensive production, which doesn’t factor in the Hamdan element. It does factor in the Big Blue Wall returning nothing but experienced upperclassmen, including Arkansas transfer Joshua Braun. In fact, 4 of UK’s projected 5 starters are former transfers. Stoops has been extremely portal-reliant on the offensive side of the ball. That includes at receiver, where former Alabama transfer Kendrick Law and former Clemson receiver Troy Stellato are hoping to capitalize on a wide-open room after those aforementioned losses of Brown and Key.

Of course, it’s hard to imagine Kentucky having a bounce-back season on offensive unless it can find a back (or 2) who can become a chain-mover. Dante Dowdell is the one to keep an eye on after he had 12 rushing scores at Nebraska last year. I brought this up when I listed the best things about UK for 2025, but it’s worth repeating with Dowdell’s skill set. In 2024, UK was dead last in the SEC with a 33.8% 3rd-down conversion rate. That number actually dipped to 30% vs. Power Conference competition with just 34 3rd-down conversions in those 9 contests. Who led the Big Ten with 24 conversions on 3rd-and-3 or less? Dowdell.

Hamdan will lean heavily on Dowdell and former Oklahoma/Butler Community College/New Mexico State transfer Seth McGowan, who was No. 31 in FBS with 49 missed tackles forced. That hand-picked combination has plenty of potential, but that upside will be limited if UK struggles to find a passing game identity, and if it can’t consistently get stops.

Speaking of getting stops …

Can this be a vintage UK defense? Better yet, can it just be decent?

Some of the raw numbers from last year’s unit weren’t awful. Shoot, nobody allowed fewer passing touchdowns than Kentucky (9), and that was with Maxwell Hairston being banged up. The problem was that while that group didn’t get any help from the offense, it was still a liability against Power Conference foes. In those games, UK allowed 28 points per contest, and it ranked No. 83 in opposing QB rating (149.5). To make matters worse, UK allowed 193 rushing yards per contest. A team who couldn’t stop the run or erase a deficit with its passing game was … not good.

If there’s a saving grace, it’s that it’s still Stoops. If there’s anyone who can turn lightly recruited defensive players into household names, it’s him.

Alex Afari is the best bet to become one of those guys as he transitions into a full-time linebacker spot, and Daveren Rayner will also be tasked with a much more significant role at linebacker. UK has to find better ways to rush the passer after it was 15th in the SEC with 24 sacks. That could come down to a Year 2 jump from Steven Soles, who had a 25.7% win percentage on 36 pass-rush snaps as a true freshman. Kent State transfer Kam Olds could become that guy after he had 16 QB hurries in 2024.

This comes down to UK finding more guys who can get an offense behind schedule. As much as Stoops and Brad White have earned a bit of grace in finding those guys, that’s still a massive unknown.

Kentucky’s Over/Under Win Total

Odds (via BetMGM)

• Over 4.5 wins: -110
• Under 4.5 wins: -115

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Cats:

Week 1: vs. Toledo (W)

One mustn’t ever sleep on Toledo, who was the preseason pick to win the MAC a year after it went into Starkville and blew the doors off of Mississippi State. A slow Kentucky start leads to some panic, but the new running back duo gets rolling to prevent any sort of late drama.

Week 2: vs. Ole Miss (L)

I know, I know. Last year was … wild. It’s still one of the most baffling results of the entire 2024 season. What changes? There’s not much of a playbook to stop Austin Simmons yet. That hurts Kentucky. Instead of frustrating Lane Kiffin‘s offense for 60 minutes, Simmons does his damage early and Kentucky turns the ball over in obvious passing situations late.

Week 3: vs. Eastern Michigan (W)

After he was humbled by the Ole Miss defense, Calzada bounces back in a big way against EMU. Law and Ja’Mori Maclin both find the end zone in what’s easily the best performance of the young season from the UK passing game.

Week 4: Bye

The Wildcats get an early bye to prepare for a brutal SEC stretch.

Week 5: at South Carolina (L)

After last year’s blowout against South Carolina served as the first sign that UK was in for a dreadful season, the Cats come out with a surprising bit of energy that stuns the Williams-Brice faithful. Is Stoops about to pick up a vintage win against South Carolina after 3 consecutive losses to Shane Beamer’s squad? Nope. Too much LaNorris Sellers. The Gamecocks erase a 10-0 deficit and roar back with a 20-14 victory.

Week 6: at Georgia (L)

A motivated Georgia squad is on Kentucky from the jump. The Cats look like a team that left all of their juice in Columbia the previous week. Calzada turns the ball over in UK territory twice and Georgia is up 3 scores before fans have even settled into their seats. Unlike last year’s thriller in Lexington, there’s no late drama to be had this time.

Week 7: Bye

Kentucky has both bye weeks before the end of October. The Cats need to rest up for a rough-looking second half.

Week 8: vs. Texas (L)

Just as he did last year, Stoops makes the decision to make a mid-game switch to Boley. That’s on the heels of a failed post-bye week performance from Calzada, who can’t stop turning the ball over against an elite defense. That leads to some spark from Boley, who gets enough time in the pocket to attack downfield and prevent Texas from completely running away with it. But this one is never in doubt in the 4th quarter thanks to a comfortable Arch Manning, who dices up the UK secondary.

Week 9: vs. Tennessee (W)

I know, I know. Josh Heupel owns Stoops. I’m well aware that he’s 4-0 in that matchup since arriving in Knoxville. I’m also well aware that Heupel has an 8-10 record in true road games, and on the heels of a road game at Alabama, I wonder how his team will respond in Lexington. Yes, Heupel won in his 2 trips to Kroger Field, but that was by 9 combined points. This turns into a ball-control game, wherein Kentucky’s 2-headed rushing attack of Dowdell and McGowan keep Tennessee’s defense on the field far too long. Calzada doesn’t set the world on fire, but he also doesn’t turn the ball over. The Vols can’t muster a late scoring drive and UK pulls of a major home upset to keep its bowl hopes alive.

Week 10: at Auburn (L)

After an awkward year that he spent at Auburn back in 2022, one can’t help but think that Calzada had this one circled on his calendar. Unfortunately for him, it doesn’t lead to revenge. Instead, it leads to a mid-game benching after a pick-6 and a fumble bail out a stuck-in-the-mud Auburn offense. In a game that the Cats desperately needed for their bowl aspirations, they lay an egg offensively at Jordan-Hare.

Week 11: vs. Florida (L)

I’m old enough to remember when Kentucky could push Florida around and Gator fans wondered why their team couldn’t be more blue-collar like Stoops’. Those days have passed. So, too, have UK’s winning ways against Billy Napier and Co. DJ Lagway leads a potent Florida attack en route to a comfortable victory at Kroger Field while Boley’s first SEC start is unremarkable.

Week 12: vs. Tennessee Tech (W)

Boley gets a favorable opportunity and takes advantage of it. UK fans are treated to a passing game that finally has some explosive plays. For a week, Stoops’ job security isn’t the No. 1 topic of conversation.

Week 13: at Vanderbilt (L)

And just like that, it’s over for Kentucky. The last-ditch bowl hopes go down the drain in fitting fashion with a loss to the Diego Pavia-led Dores. Unlike last year when Deone Walker fell on his leg, Pavia is able to attack downfield. UK cannot find answers to get Pavia off the field, and for the 3rd time in 4 seasons, Stoops falls to Clark Lea.

Week 14: at Louisville (L)

Just in case things weren’t bad enough, the Marrow Bowl in Louisville will be a brutal end to a brutal year in the Bluegrass State. Well, I suppose that only applies to the visiting Cats and not Louisville, who is en route to the Playoff at this point. Two years earlier, Stoops knocked off the top-10 Cardinals to end their Playoff hopes and then dealt with a wild development that he was taking the Texas A&M job. Two years later, the only question is whether Stoops will return in 2026.

2025 projection: 4-8 (1-7), 15th in SEC

It’s Groundhog Day after another 4-win season, but Kentucky fans have a more pressing issue — does Stoops return in 2026?

12-team Playoff berth? No

The only silver lining to another 4-win season is that it could force UK to make serious changes. How much long-term difference is there between 4-6 wins? A reset feels like the obvious next step, albeit an expensive one. Would Stoops walk away to preserve his legacy? Or would he make UK fork over a $37 million buyout within 60 days? That’s messy when it’s the best coach in program history.

A 4-8 season would have overwhelming calls for such a move. This would all come down to AD Mitch Barnhart having a plan in place. Would that be paying the $37 million and bringing in next-in-line coach Jon Sumrall? Lord knows there would be no shortage of speculation about that, especially if Tulane doesn’t fall off the face of the earth.

Whatever the case, it’s hard to imagine a path out of obscurity. Stoops’ UK legacy won’t be defined by the 2025 season alone, but it’ll sure as heck have a major say in it.