Kentucky football: Predicting the Wildcats’ final record in 2023

After 5 games, the Wildcats were exactly where they wanted to be. At 5-0 with a 3rd consecutive victory over Florida, Kentucky looked like it could ride Ray Davis’ ground attack to a potential 3rd 10-win season in the past 6 years. But, in the words of the great Lee Corso, not so fast.

While losing to No. 1 Georgia in Week 6 was far from shocking, getting absolutely mauled by the Bulldogs was a bit surprising. Kentucky was outgained 608-183, outclassed on defense and pummeled on offense. But it was just 1 game, on the road, against the nation’s top team.

Until Week 7, when Missouri rebounded from a 14-0 deficit courtesy of a hot Kentucky start to trounce UK, 38-21. Kentucky’s defense again looked vulnerable, and the Wildcats’ special teams were not so special. And a 5-0 start has led into a couple of disappointing performances that could signal a football team in real trouble. Or they could be bumps in the road.

Here’s a shot in the dark at where a definitely unpredictable 2nd half of the UK season ends. After a 5-2 start, here’s where the Wildcats will finish the 2023 season.

Week 9: vs. Tennessee

The Skinny: If Mark Stoops wants to recover momentum in a hurry, he could certainly do worse than besting a Tennessee team that has continued to give the Wildcats fits, even in seasons when the Vols have struggled. Josh Heupel’s Vols have put up 45 and 44 points in his 2 games against UK, and a reeling Kentucky secondary needs to get right in a hurry.

That said, this still isn’t your grandfather’s Tennessee Vols. UT was drubbed earlier in the season by the same UF team that Kentucky crushed a couple of weeks later. Commutative property of college football means UK wins, right? Maybe not. Alabama spent Kentucky’s bye week by scaring the daylights out of Alabama in a 20-7 1st-half upset. Sure, the Tide went on a 27-0 run to close the game out, but if UK draws the 1st-half Vols, it’ll be a long Saturday in Lexington.

On the other hand, if UK draws the 2nd-half Vols, it’ll be a fight. This one seems to edge a little closer that way, but given the issues in Kentucky’s passing game, picking the Wildcats to deal the upset feels a little too optimistic.

Prediction: UT 31, UK 24

Week 10: at Mississippi State

The Skinny: Particularly if UK loses to the Vols, this game becomes deeply critical. A loss in Starkville could catapult UK to a 5-7 season. That said, Mississippi State is definitely a team in transition. After an ugly 7-3 road win at Arkansas, this offense isn’t too scary, particularly with Mike Wright at the helm.

Zach Arnett’s defense figures to muddy this one up. Kentucky last won in Starkville in 2008, when a blocked extra point led to a 14-13 win. UK may need a blocked kick again, but unlike the week before, this feels like one where the Wildcats might have luck on their side.

Prediction: UK 22, Mississippi State 21

Week 11: Alabama

The Skinny: How much skinnier can it get for UK than acknowleding that the Wildcats have beaten Alabama twice — in 1922 and 1997. With a 2-38-1 mark against Bama, it’s hard to imagine that UK would get too cocky ahead of this matchup.

While this Alabama team is fairly pedestrian on offense, the defense has kept the Tide in virtually every game. Kentucky will have to minimize mistakes to have shot at this one, and that might be a bigger trick than the Wildcats’ offense can handle. Kentucky seems likely to hang with the Tide into the 2nd half, but a win over Alabama is a proposition to be seen rather than forecast.

Prediction: Alabama 34, Kentucky 20

Week 12: at South Carolina

The Skinny: The Gamecocks are reeling. History is also on UK’s side here, as Stoops is 7-2 in UK’s past 9 games against Carolina. Kentucky has even won 3 of the past 4 meetings in Columbia. On the other hand, Spencer Rattler bested the Wildcats a year ago, and this UK team is looking vulnerable to passing attacks.

However, given Carolina’s apparent discombobulation, UK is likely to be the team still looking ahead by this point in the season. A healthy dose of Davis figures to be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, South Carolina 17

Week 13: at Louisville

The Skinny: Last week’s loss to Pitt aside, this isn’t Scott Satterfield’s Louisville team anymore. Jeff Brohm has immediately brought respectability and momentum to Louisville, and his 1st home game against UK figures to be an intense matchup.

That said, Kentucky has won the past 4 battles for the Governor’s Cup, and it has run the football against Louisville like the forward pass has been outlawed. Considering that this Kentucky team already plays its best football under those conditions, that might not be a bad thing. Kentucky hasn’t had a down-to-the-wire scenario yet in 2023, but this feels like it could be the night. A mild upset over a likely ranked Louisville team might get the Wildcats to a warm-weather bowl, and it’ll definitely help repair a few hurt feelings over that potential 3-game losing streak.

Prediction: UK 30, Louisville 28

An 8-4 mark might well land the Wildcats in Tampa for the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly the Outback Bowl. As long as UK doesn’t play Iowa again, that might work out well.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.