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The 1st third of the Kentucky 2023 football season definitely tests the dichotomy between glass-half-full types and glass-half-empty types. First, the case for the optimists: Kentucky is 4-0 and has actually covered the point spread in 3 of the 4 wins. The Wildcats’ defense has been impressive, and UK boasts some impressive offensive playmakers. The case for the pessimists: Kentucky hasn’t played a good team, looks completely lost on offense and might get smacked around by the non-Vanderbilt portion of the SEC.
After UK’s 45-28 win over Vandy, here’s the stock report on the Wildcats.
Player of the Week: Maxwell Hairston, CB
Hairston, a 1st-year starter, made some Kentucky history. A 1st-quarter pick-6 extended UK’s lead to 14-0, and then a 4th-quarter grab materialized in Hairston’s hands. A quick jaunt down the sideline for a 2nd score extended Kentucky’s lead to 44-21. How historic was Hairston’s performance? UK stat guru Corey Price confirmed that it was, well, unique:
Maxwell Hairston is the first Kentucky player in school history to have 2 interception return touchdowns in one game
— Corey Price (@coreyp08) September 23, 2023
Freshman of the Week: Tyreese Fearbry, LB
Again, this is a tough call because of the dearth of freshmen seeing action for Kentucky. Fearbry had a nice QB hurry to snuff out a Vandy drive just after halftime. He added another tackle, and he seems likely to provide quality depth for the Wildcats’ linebacking corps down the stretch of this season.
Biggest surprise: Kentucky’s defense putting up and setting up points
On a day when Kentucky’s offense was wildly inconsistent, the UK defense did its part to help the situation, scoring 2 touchdowns and setting up a 3rd. In the middle of the 1st quarter, with Vandy QB AJ Swann under a heavy rush from Trevin Wallace and J.J. Weaver, the Vandy passer lobbed a pass toward the flat. Hairston broke in front of the pass, snagged it and headed 29 yards to paydirt. Early in the 2nd half, with UK’s offense stagnating, linebacker D’Eryk Jackson snagged another Swann pass and alertly latereled the interception to DB Andru Phillips, who returned it deep into Vandy territory. A penalty on the play set UK up on the Vandy 11 before another touchdown. Hairston then snagged yet another errant Swann throw in the 4th quarter and took it 54 yards down the sideline for yet another score. UK’s defense certainly did its part in Nashville.
Biggest concern: Offensive continuity
Kentucky’s offense has playmakers and explosiveness. What it doesn’t have is consistency. In 29 pass attempts, UK’s Devin Leary threw 2 interceptions and several other passes that were near interceptions. Running back Ray Davis finished with 17 carries for 78 yards, but 6 carries went for either no gain or a loss of yardage. The official stats reflected 2 drops, but suffice it to say that the statistician must have been a receiver, because UK’s wideouts and tight ends dropped several more passes. Kentucky had 10 penalties for 105 yards, most of which were against the offensive line.
Can Kentucky keep playing boom-or-bust offensive football? It has been fine against MAC foes and Vanderbilt, but that seems like a poor recipe to compete with Tennessee, Georgia or Alabama. At some point, the excuse that it’s early and the group is still jelling starts to sound a little stale. Put up or shut up time probably starts next week.
Developing trend: Beating Vandy
Since Mark Stoops reached his 1st bowl in his 4th season in Lexington back in 2016, Kentucky has defeated Vandy in every one of those bowl-bound seasons … until last year. The 24-21 loss to the Commodores in Lexington probably knocked Kentucky down a tier in bowl selection, which also probably contributed to the decision of several key Wildcats to opt out of a Music City Bowl showdown with Iowa. From 2008-15, Vandy went 4-3 against UK (which happens to encompass the James Franklin Era in Nashville). Since then, UK is 7-1 in the series, and it used the 2023 matchup to get back to business.
Key stat: 4
Kentucky had 4 plays of 30-plus yards. A year ago, the Wildcats had just 21 plays covering 30-plus yards on the season — tied for 11th in the SEC, ahead of only Texas A&M and Mississppi State. Coming into Saturday, Kentucky was 5th in the SEC on 30-plus-yard plays, and after Week 4, the Wildcats have already racked up 13 such plays.
How big are those big plays? After recent seasons featured an offense that was basically grind and churn and make opponents miserable by converting 3rd-and-2, Kentucky has really struggled to keep drives moving in 2023. But the answer can be the big play — as long as the Wildcats keep making them.
First impression about Florida: Pivotal might be understating it.
Every remaining team on Kentucky’s schedule is probably better than every team the Wildcats have played. A victory over Florida would be a 3rd in a row over the Gators, and it would have UK on the cusp of bowl eligibility in September. That’s a good thing, because Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee still beckon. Louisville is better than in recent seasons, and Mizzou and South Carolina have shown some early punch. Mississippi State is possibly the weakest remaining foe, but that game is in Starkville.
Kentucky will get punched in the mouth at some point by Florida. The question is how the Wildcats will react. Kentucky’s first 4 games have shown that it has enough weapons to compete in the rest of its SEC schedule. Four easy wins have also included enough struggles to show that the Wildcats have plenty to tighten up and plenty yet to learn. The momentum of a 5-0 start could well lead UK to another 10-win season. An early loss could turn things much darker in a hurry.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
